It's just the flu!
04-18-2020, 05:44 PM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 454
Originally Posted by horrido27
https://news.yahoo.com/york-city-rev...205328540.html
So.. lets ask ourselves this-
Why would a city do this.. it literally increased they death total by over 30% in a day?!
I have read/heard that cities are getting $15K per CV19 death. Can't find the source and honestly don't believe it.. but then this kind of stupidity happens. Yesterday I heard that they are 'finding' more elderly folks dead in certain mortuaries here in NJ. Seems that someone else if actually trying to run the exact opposite plan of NYC?
Comes down to you don't know what to believe anymore.
I do know this much- There are 78,467 confirmed cases of CV19 in NJ currently (as of 18 Apr)
State has a population of slightly over 9 million (per 2017 data.. 9.006 miliion)
Lets say there are 3 times the amount of those how have or had it already.. but never/haven't been tested.
it means that NJ has/had 2.6% of the population infected.
If you look at current death stats- NJ has had 3840. Lets double it for the 'unknowns' over the last 2 months..
it means that NJ has/had 3.2% death rate.
But.. if you look at the death rate per the population-
.085%
This thing is a *****, don't get me wrong. Had it and mostly recovered. I say mostly because there is no official way to get me onto the recovered list! I kid you not.
NJ currently shows 802 recovered. A pathetic 1.022% recovery rate.
WTF is going on?!
Again, this thing is bad but we have destroyed our economy and God knows how many people/families/businesses are ruined financial over this.. over very small percentages.
We need to get WAY more tests! We need more masks and sanitizers. We need new social distance guidelines. We need to figure out ways for people to open their businesses back up.
Restaurant use to seat 100.. well, maybe for now it seats 40.
Movie theaters only allowed to seat 25% of their capacity. Everyone must wear a mask.
But somebody better come up with some sort of plan. The average American citizen won't put up with this for more than another 2 weeks.. let alone 2 months!
Just my opinion but the numbers came from-
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?...xbOg5oOA%2c%2c
Stay Strong, Stay Healthy & Be Well
Motch
So.. lets ask ourselves this-
Why would a city do this.. it literally increased they death total by over 30% in a day?!
I have read/heard that cities are getting $15K per CV19 death. Can't find the source and honestly don't believe it.. but then this kind of stupidity happens. Yesterday I heard that they are 'finding' more elderly folks dead in certain mortuaries here in NJ. Seems that someone else if actually trying to run the exact opposite plan of NYC?
Comes down to you don't know what to believe anymore.
I do know this much- There are 78,467 confirmed cases of CV19 in NJ currently (as of 18 Apr)
State has a population of slightly over 9 million (per 2017 data.. 9.006 miliion)
Lets say there are 3 times the amount of those how have or had it already.. but never/haven't been tested.
it means that NJ has/had 2.6% of the population infected.
If you look at current death stats- NJ has had 3840. Lets double it for the 'unknowns' over the last 2 months..
it means that NJ has/had 3.2% death rate.
But.. if you look at the death rate per the population-
.085%
This thing is a *****, don't get me wrong. Had it and mostly recovered. I say mostly because there is no official way to get me onto the recovered list! I kid you not.
NJ currently shows 802 recovered. A pathetic 1.022% recovery rate.
WTF is going on?!
Again, this thing is bad but we have destroyed our economy and God knows how many people/families/businesses are ruined financial over this.. over very small percentages.
We need to get WAY more tests! We need more masks and sanitizers. We need new social distance guidelines. We need to figure out ways for people to open their businesses back up.
Restaurant use to seat 100.. well, maybe for now it seats 40.
Movie theaters only allowed to seat 25% of their capacity. Everyone must wear a mask.
But somebody better come up with some sort of plan. The average American citizen won't put up with this for more than another 2 weeks.. let alone 2 months!
Just my opinion but the numbers came from-
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?...xbOg5oOA%2c%2c
Stay Strong, Stay Healthy & Be Well
Motch
04-18-2020, 06:04 PM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 741
[QUOTE=sailingfun;3035486]
World wide more than 1 million died.
Just doing simple math from the USA CDC numbers I listed a few posts back.
If we had the same death rate for Covid-19 as from the Influenza rates we would currently be less than a 1,000 deaths. It is now over 37,000.
Or, to put it another way, if those influenza deaths had followed the Covid-19 death rates posted, the annual deaths would have been a low of 850,000 to the worst year (45,000,000 estimated cases) having over 2.26 million deaths. In the USA alone.
I am sure there are mitigating factors I am ignorant of, but even "fudge factoring" for that, the difference in rates of death between the two is far too large to dismiss.
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
World wide more than 1 million died.
If we had the same death rate for Covid-19 as from the Influenza rates we would currently be less than a 1,000 deaths. It is now over 37,000.
Or, to put it another way, if those influenza deaths had followed the Covid-19 death rates posted, the annual deaths would have been a low of 850,000 to the worst year (45,000,000 estimated cases) having over 2.26 million deaths. In the USA alone.
I am sure there are mitigating factors I am ignorant of, but even "fudge factoring" for that, the difference in rates of death between the two is far too large to dismiss.
04-18-2020, 06:15 PM
#63
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,514
It's just the flu!
US crude fatality rate as of today is basically 5%.
**If** the Stanford/Santa Clara County estimate of 50-85 previous infections for every confirmed positive test held true for the entire country, **and** you assumed their bottom line 50:1 ratio, we’d have an actual COVID mortality rate of not 5%, but 0.1%....which is right in the ballpark of annual influenza.
The Boston/Chelsea study would put their town’s mortality from 5.5% to around 0.3%, greater than seasonal flu but less than some other historical flu pandemics.
We need more antibody studies from across the country to better estimate actual infections nationwide, which will provide a more accurate estimated mortality rate. Those are coming in the next few weeks.
**If** the Stanford/Santa Clara County estimate of 50-85 previous infections for every confirmed positive test held true for the entire country, **and** you assumed their bottom line 50:1 ratio, we’d have an actual COVID mortality rate of not 5%, but 0.1%....which is right in the ballpark of annual influenza.
The Boston/Chelsea study would put their town’s mortality from 5.5% to around 0.3%, greater than seasonal flu but less than some other historical flu pandemics.
We need more antibody studies from across the country to better estimate actual infections nationwide, which will provide a more accurate estimated mortality rate. Those are coming in the next few weeks.
04-18-2020, 09:33 PM
#64
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2018
Posts: 564
[QUOTE=sailingfun;3035486]
World wide more than 1 million died.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htmlAdditionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.
Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.
The United States mounted a complex, multi-faceted and long-term response to the pandemic, summarized in The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010. On August 10, 2010, WHO declared an end to the global 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, (H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year.
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
World wide more than 1 million died.
Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.
The United States mounted a complex, multi-faceted and long-term response to the pandemic, summarized in The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010. On August 10, 2010, WHO declared an end to the global 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, (H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year.
04-19-2020, 01:56 AM
#65
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
[QUOTE=MaxQ;3035545]
Just doing simple math from the USA CDC numbers I listed a few posts back.
If we had the same death rate for Covid-19 as from the Influenza rates we would currently be less than a 1,000 deaths. It is now over 37,000.
Or, to put it another way, if those influenza deaths had followed the Covid-19 death rates posted, the annual deaths would have been a low of 850,000 to the worst year (45,000,000 estimated cases) having over 2.26 million deaths. In the USA alone.
I am sure there are mitigating factors I am ignorant of, but even "fudge factoring" for that, the difference in rates of death between the two is far too large to dismiss.
What you are missing is that before you get listed as having Covid19 you basically need to be seriously ill. The vast majority of people who have it never get tested and even if they wanted a test are unable to get one in the US. Every single study where they have done antibody testing has shown vastly higher infection rates than the stats.
Orange County CA is a excellent example. 3 million people with one of the very highest Chinese and Asian population rates. These are very well off Chinese who traveled back and forth to China often including Wuhan. In the fall they had a spike in respiratory illness and flu. No one paid much attention. Now they have only 1500 cases and 36 deaths. How can that be? They should be inundated in cases. The simply answer is it already went through OC before the press and world went nuts.
Originally Posted by sailingfun
Just doing simple math from the USA CDC numbers I listed a few posts back.
If we had the same death rate for Covid-19 as from the Influenza rates we would currently be less than a 1,000 deaths. It is now over 37,000.
Or, to put it another way, if those influenza deaths had followed the Covid-19 death rates posted, the annual deaths would have been a low of 850,000 to the worst year (45,000,000 estimated cases) having over 2.26 million deaths. In the USA alone.
I am sure there are mitigating factors I am ignorant of, but even "fudge factoring" for that, the difference in rates of death between the two is far too large to dismiss.
Orange County CA is a excellent example. 3 million people with one of the very highest Chinese and Asian population rates. These are very well off Chinese who traveled back and forth to China often including Wuhan. In the fall they had a spike in respiratory illness and flu. No one paid much attention. Now they have only 1500 cases and 36 deaths. How can that be? They should be inundated in cases. The simply answer is it already went through OC before the press and world went nuts.
04-19-2020, 06:04 AM
#66
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: A320
Posts: 293
04-19-2020, 06:17 AM
#67
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2017
Position: ERJ-170
Posts: 521
[QUOTE=sailingfun;3035686]
Some more support of this statement from the WSJ this AM...
This is on the Santa Clara Co study and others..."The researchers found that the percentage of infections was indeed vastly larger than the roughly 1,000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. The preliminary results—the research will now undergo peer review—show that between 2.5% and 4.2% of county residents are estimated to have antibodies against the virus. That translates into 48,000 to 81,000 infections, 50 to 85 times as high as the number of known cases.
That may sound scary, but it’s great news. It suggests that the large majority of people who contract Covid-19 recover without ever knowing they were infected, and that the U.S. infection fatality rate may be more than an order of magnitude lower than authorities had assumed. Based on this seroprevalence data, the authors estimate that in Santa Clara County the true infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2%—far closer to seasonal influenza than to the original, case-based estimates.
Outside California as well, preliminary data are emerging to support a more hopeful picture. In New York City, a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine examined 215 women entering two hospitals to give birth between March 22 and April 4. These patients had a Covid-19 infection rate over 15%. Of expectant mothers who tested positive for active infections, 88% were asymptomatic at the time of admission. That infection rate is about 10 times the rate of known cases in the city as a whole as of April 17—and New Yorkers have been tested for Covid-19 far more extensively than residents of other states.
This study looked only at active infections, not past infections as in Santa Clara County. So in that population of pregnant women, 15% infected is a lower bound. Many others may have had a past infection only detectable on serologic tests for antibodies against the virus.
Similar proportions of infections to cases are now being discovered around the world: 30 times in Robbio, Italy; 10 times in Iceland; 14 times in Gangelt, Germany; 27 times in Denmark. Germany and Denmark are now leading Europe in reopening their economies in the coming week. Sweden, concerned all along with the accuracy of early assumptions, never closed down its economy."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-dat...nding_now_pos1
Originally Posted by MaxQ
What you are missing is that before you get listed as having Covid19 you basically need to be seriously ill.
This is on the Santa Clara Co study and others..."The researchers found that the percentage of infections was indeed vastly larger than the roughly 1,000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. The preliminary results—the research will now undergo peer review—show that between 2.5% and 4.2% of county residents are estimated to have antibodies against the virus. That translates into 48,000 to 81,000 infections, 50 to 85 times as high as the number of known cases.
That may sound scary, but it’s great news. It suggests that the large majority of people who contract Covid-19 recover without ever knowing they were infected, and that the U.S. infection fatality rate may be more than an order of magnitude lower than authorities had assumed. Based on this seroprevalence data, the authors estimate that in Santa Clara County the true infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2%—far closer to seasonal influenza than to the original, case-based estimates.
Outside California as well, preliminary data are emerging to support a more hopeful picture. In New York City, a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine examined 215 women entering two hospitals to give birth between March 22 and April 4. These patients had a Covid-19 infection rate over 15%. Of expectant mothers who tested positive for active infections, 88% were asymptomatic at the time of admission. That infection rate is about 10 times the rate of known cases in the city as a whole as of April 17—and New Yorkers have been tested for Covid-19 far more extensively than residents of other states.
This study looked only at active infections, not past infections as in Santa Clara County. So in that population of pregnant women, 15% infected is a lower bound. Many others may have had a past infection only detectable on serologic tests for antibodies against the virus.
Similar proportions of infections to cases are now being discovered around the world: 30 times in Robbio, Italy; 10 times in Iceland; 14 times in Gangelt, Germany; 27 times in Denmark. Germany and Denmark are now leading Europe in reopening their economies in the coming week. Sweden, concerned all along with the accuracy of early assumptions, never closed down its economy."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-dat...nding_now_pos1
04-19-2020, 06:21 AM
#68
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,293
The way this trending, I'm starting to think it really is like the flu... in a bad season, with no natural immunity or vaccine.
Two years from now there will be public service announcements reminding everyone to get their flu/covid shots.
Two years from now there will be public service announcements reminding everyone to get their flu/covid shots.
04-19-2020, 03:08 PM
#69
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2018
Posts: 564
Originally Posted by rickair7777
The way this trending, I'm starting to think it really is like the flu... in a bad season, with no natural immunity or vaccine.
Two years from now there will be public service announcements reminding everyone to get their flu/covid shots.
Two years from now there will be public service announcements reminding everyone to get their flu/covid shots.
04-19-2020, 03:22 PM
#70
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Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 171
Funny how all of you that rightly called out China for their lies, coverups, and overall shady response are screaming to reopen the economy based on antibody tests that may have come from... China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/u...ody-tests.html
How many of these are false positives? Do we know enough about the virus to know that you’re actually
immune if you get more than the smallest viral load?
We can’t stay inside forever, but these antibody tests aren’t proof that we should just say screw it and reopen everything immediately.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/u...ody-tests.html
How many of these are false positives? Do we know enough about the virus to know that you’re actually
immune if you get more than the smallest viral load?
We can’t stay inside forever, but these antibody tests aren’t proof that we should just say screw it and reopen everything immediately.
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