It's just the flu!
07-17-2020 | 08:38 AM
#722
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,187
Likes: 239
https://watermark.silverchair.com/ci..._rrj9MpRb8NrAg
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/07/16/evide...s-is-airborne/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...567v1.full.pdf
07-17-2020 | 10:53 AM
#723
:-)
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
Likes: 0
Unequivocally it can and does happen. And, as I stated, whether or not it is a primary or secondary mode of spread is undetermined - although some studies suggest the latter. My GUESS (and it’s no more than that) is that it is less than chicken pox and measles level since those two are pretty near the most effective airborne spreaders - at least that I am aware of.
https://watermark.silverchair.com/ci..._rrj9MpRb8NrAg
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/07/16/evide...s-is-airborne/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...567v1.full.pdf
https://watermark.silverchair.com/ci..._rrj9MpRb8NrAg
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/07/16/evide...s-is-airborne/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...567v1.full.pdf
07-17-2020 | 12:34 PM
#724
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,187
Likes: 239
I’m sure that would be a great relief to those who DO get it from airborne spread.
so what do YOU define as the “scientific definition of an airborne pathogen”?
And tell me, do you believe Legionella pneumophila is an airborne pathogen? Because the vast majority of cases require human engineering help to become infected? It just doesn’t normally jump out of mud puddles and cause disease.
so what do YOU define as the “scientific definition of an airborne pathogen”?
And tell me, do you believe Legionella pneumophila is an airborne pathogen? Because the vast majority of cases require human engineering help to become infected? It just doesn’t normally jump out of mud puddles and cause disease.
07-17-2020 | 01:43 PM
#725
Line Holder
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 516
Likes: 6
From: 756
New research out this week discusses the 'how airborne is Covid-19' question. An experiment was done in NYC looking at how many healthcare workers ended up infected with CV, and compared to how many would have been infected had it been TB or other highly infections airborne virus's. Obviously I am not a scientist nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I might be missing any fallacy's in the methodology, but seems like encouraging news.
SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence among tracked HCWs was 2.21% (0.07-4.35). Transmissibility was estimated to be 0.225 quanta per hour, well below other well-characterized airborne pathogens.
The real question though will be if this is reported in the MSM.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....15.20154567v1
SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence among tracked HCWs was 2.21% (0.07-4.35). Transmissibility was estimated to be 0.225 quanta per hour, well below other well-characterized airborne pathogens.
The real question though will be if this is reported in the MSM.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....15.20154567v1
07-18-2020 | 12:26 AM
#727
Banned
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Likes: 0
From April 29th:
Boy that IHME model really missed the mark. We'll be at 150,000 dead by July 25.
I'm wondering if Anton has updated his opinion since April.
I think you're continually missing the point about any comparisons to the flu. Even now, the flu and covid are in roughly a dead heat (but it remains to be seen what covid does over the course of one year, including estimating what it did before we knew about it fully).
To me, the point is not to dismiss covid as a non-issue. Even with how deadly the flu is, we basically do nothing as a society to deal with it. Yes, we tell people to get flu shots, but that's largely driven by people's economic motivations (less absenteeism, etc.). Other than that, no one does any kind of "social distancing" or other strategies to prevent flu deaths. We utterly tolerate 50-80k deaths each season (in the US alone).
The purpose of the flu comparison is to calibrate a discussion on what sorts of actions are justified in order to prevent a certain number of deaths. This is where the real debate should be. It's subjective, and people will disagree.
To me, it's sheer lunacy to say that 50k deaths require basically no action at all, but 72k deaths by August 4 (current IMHE projection) requires shutting down the economy and trampling on the rights of every single person. Beyond that, it's a give-and-take. If the deaths were 150k, maybe we require some forms of social distancing.Personally, I feel like the deaths would have to be 500k or more to justify what's currently being done, AND the measures taken would need waaaaaay more proof that they are actually going to accomplish something before just blindly implementing them.
Lastly, call me crazy, but I also think the bill of rights and due process should be respected in any scenario. We require a supermajority two-thirds vote for the Senate to ratify a flippin' TREATY, yet somehow all this can happen without a single vote being cast. To me that's the biggest casualty of this virus.
To me, the point is not to dismiss covid as a non-issue. Even with how deadly the flu is, we basically do nothing as a society to deal with it. Yes, we tell people to get flu shots, but that's largely driven by people's economic motivations (less absenteeism, etc.). Other than that, no one does any kind of "social distancing" or other strategies to prevent flu deaths. We utterly tolerate 50-80k deaths each season (in the US alone).
The purpose of the flu comparison is to calibrate a discussion on what sorts of actions are justified in order to prevent a certain number of deaths. This is where the real debate should be. It's subjective, and people will disagree.
To me, it's sheer lunacy to say that 50k deaths require basically no action at all, but 72k deaths by August 4 (current IMHE projection) requires shutting down the economy and trampling on the rights of every single person. Beyond that, it's a give-and-take. If the deaths were 150k, maybe we require some forms of social distancing.Personally, I feel like the deaths would have to be 500k or more to justify what's currently being done, AND the measures taken would need waaaaaay more proof that they are actually going to accomplish something before just blindly implementing them.
Lastly, call me crazy, but I also think the bill of rights and due process should be respected in any scenario. We require a supermajority two-thirds vote for the Senate to ratify a flippin' TREATY, yet somehow all this can happen without a single vote being cast. To me that's the biggest casualty of this virus.
I'm wondering if Anton has updated his opinion since April.
Last edited by WutFace; 07-18-2020 at 12:36 AM.
07-18-2020 | 05:03 AM
#728
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,187
Likes: 239
And seriously, “dead” is the wrong metric. The traditional metric is YPLL, that is Years of Potential Lives Lost when you talk about Public Health measures. Yes, every person out there is (hopefully at least) someone’s loved one, but even before COVID -19 the mortality rate in nursing homes and long term care centers was 35% per YEAR. The MEDIAN life expectancy for those requiring a long term nursing care facility BEFORE COVID was 2.2 years. From a population of 330 million people we lose 8000+ a day even without COVID. With a life expectancy of 80 years it could scarcely Be otherwise. This is NOT, thankfully, the Spanish Flu that took its swath out of (disproportionately) young adults leaving so many kids orphaned on the East Coast that they sent trains full of orphans to the Midwest to be adopted.
So yeah, Public health programs need to be judged by public health metrics and so do solutions. There ARE NO perfect solutions to a risk involving 330 million people. Immunizations themselves RARELY cause problems, but “rare” multiplied by 330 million is still not a trivial number.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599698/
The 1976 Swine Flu immunization programs involved 45 million Americans being immunized with a vaccine that caused one patient to get Guillan-Barre syndrome (a type of temporary paralysis) For every 100,000 immunized and 53 deaths while the feared Swine Flu epidemic never even happened (dooming Gerald Ford’s presidential campaign).
https://www..com/smart-news/long-sha...sco-180961994/
So yeah, Wutface, it’s an imperfect world and predictive models often miss the mark, and when you are dealing with a third of a billion people even the one in a million chance is gonna bite you - on average - 330 times. There are no perfect solutions and no absolutes. But in such a situation differences of opinion are to be expected and ought to be discussed. We can likely all learn from that. But any solution - if indeed one even exists - is going to require consensus and cooperation, because there aren’t enough police in the world to control 330 million people, and you aren’t going to get that consensus by denigrating every individual whose opinion differs from yours.
https://youtu.be/4Gfc_P4EX-g
07-22-2020 | 10:54 AM
#729
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,884
Likes: 0
From: Left seat on a kite
I'm not saying Covid-19 isn't real... But pay attention folks, there's much more going on here than what meets the eye.
Is it a coincidence that just when the economy is booming, the stock market is setting record highs, we are winning the trade wars, school shootings have stopped, our nation is at peace, the Democratic party is a disaster and so is their likely nominee? (Biden). He hasn't a chance in hell & they're not about to let an outsider (Bernie) destroy their scheme.
It looks like Trump is a sure bet for reelection after fending off 3 years of investigations and impeachment, then all of a sudden world crisis pandemic. Stock market tumbles, companies are laying off employees, everything is closed and canceled, CEO's of giant companies are resigning and indictments are coming.
Now they say there are a couple ways a President doesn't win reelection: an unpopular war or a poor economy.
But there is something larger going on here driving this sudden outbreak right after Trump beats an impeachment. Especially the fact that it (Corona Virus) originated in China who we are in a global trade war with; brought on by Trump. Let's not forget Biden's back door deals with CHINA as well.
China doesn't want 4 more years of Trump either. It all seems rather convenient for the nations and opponents of our current President and economy 5 months before an election. Couldn't have hit at a more perfect time.
With the Democrats running out of campaign talking points, in light of no school shootings, no migrant caravans at the southern border, fighting in Syria winding down, North Korea not firing missiles and Trump beating a sham impeachment. The Corona Virus gave them one last hail Mary to try and point fingers at Trump with the clock winding down in 2020.
This is almost the perfect fascist playbook. Control the population with fear-mongering and panic, control the media, spread propaganda and the fan-favorite, disarm the population. Oh, and did anyone notice that while they are mad as hell at Trump for not sending aid to Ukraine, they THEMSELVES voted AGAINST giving ANY emergency aid to all Americans?
Sorry but I don't think we are all going to die. Remember when Ebola was what was going to kill us all, and the media kept showing the piles of body bags that were prepared for the fallout. Then a month later it was totally forgotten.
The common flu has killed more people this year already and the media is SILENT!
A handful of deaths out of 320 million Americans and we are in panic tearing down our society and costing our economy billions in the wake. It all just seems fishy, a little too well-timed if you ask me".
Trey Gowdy
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. (P. J. O'Rourke)
Is it a coincidence that just when the economy is booming, the stock market is setting record highs, we are winning the trade wars, school shootings have stopped, our nation is at peace, the Democratic party is a disaster and so is their likely nominee? (Biden). He hasn't a chance in hell & they're not about to let an outsider (Bernie) destroy their scheme.
It looks like Trump is a sure bet for reelection after fending off 3 years of investigations and impeachment, then all of a sudden world crisis pandemic. Stock market tumbles, companies are laying off employees, everything is closed and canceled, CEO's of giant companies are resigning and indictments are coming.
Now they say there are a couple ways a President doesn't win reelection: an unpopular war or a poor economy.
But there is something larger going on here driving this sudden outbreak right after Trump beats an impeachment. Especially the fact that it (Corona Virus) originated in China who we are in a global trade war with; brought on by Trump. Let's not forget Biden's back door deals with CHINA as well.
China doesn't want 4 more years of Trump either. It all seems rather convenient for the nations and opponents of our current President and economy 5 months before an election. Couldn't have hit at a more perfect time.
With the Democrats running out of campaign talking points, in light of no school shootings, no migrant caravans at the southern border, fighting in Syria winding down, North Korea not firing missiles and Trump beating a sham impeachment. The Corona Virus gave them one last hail Mary to try and point fingers at Trump with the clock winding down in 2020.
This is almost the perfect fascist playbook. Control the population with fear-mongering and panic, control the media, spread propaganda and the fan-favorite, disarm the population. Oh, and did anyone notice that while they are mad as hell at Trump for not sending aid to Ukraine, they THEMSELVES voted AGAINST giving ANY emergency aid to all Americans?
Sorry but I don't think we are all going to die. Remember when Ebola was what was going to kill us all, and the media kept showing the piles of body bags that were prepared for the fallout. Then a month later it was totally forgotten.
The common flu has killed more people this year already and the media is SILENT!
A handful of deaths out of 320 million Americans and we are in panic tearing down our society and costing our economy billions in the wake. It all just seems fishy, a little too well-timed if you ask me".
Trey Gowdy
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. (P. J. O'Rourke)
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