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Old 07-22-2020 | 11:18 AM
  #731  
Anson Harris
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Originally Posted by WutFace
From April 29th:

Boy that IHME model really missed the mark. We'll be at 150,000 dead by July 25.
I'm wondering if Anton has updated his opinion since April.
Nope. (I assume you mean Anson, not Anton).

That discussion was about lockdowns, which are still the wrong choice. And what are we doing now, with the numbers where they are? Mostly reasonable social distancing and masks, which is what we should have been doing all along.

Earlier in this thread excargodog made the point again how foolish it was to discourage the use of masks, yet no one will even acknowledge how huge of a mistake this was. This whole thing has been a disaster, primarily because nobody has any interest in:
  • Being honest and transparent
  • Admitting that they're not sure about something, or when they were wrong
  • Respectfully asking for help and support when they're not sure
And you wonder why you're driving the struggle bus.
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Old 07-22-2020 | 01:37 PM
  #732  
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Originally Posted by WutFace
From April 29th:

Boy that IHME model really missed the mark. We'll be at 150,000 dead by July 25.
I'm wondering if Anton has updated his opinion since April.
150K minus the propped up reporting right? If you take away the car fatalities, etc, what's the real number?
Maybe 100? What did the flu kill last year? on average? Keep it all shut down until after flu season and hope you enjoy working at mickey-Ds Wutfarce.
Its the flu...
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Old 07-22-2020 | 06:27 PM
  #733  
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Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot
150K minus the propped up reporting right? If you take away the car fatalities, etc, what's the real number?
Maybe 100? What did the flu kill last year? on average? Keep it all shut down until after flu season and hope you enjoy working at mickey-Ds Wutfarce.
Its the flu...
Alex?
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Old 07-22-2020 | 06:33 PM
  #734  
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Originally Posted by Anson Harris
Nope. (I assume you mean Anson, not Anton).

That discussion was about lockdowns, which are still the wrong choice. And what are we doing now, with the numbers where they are? Mostly reasonable social distancing and masks, which is what we should have been doing all along.

Earlier in this thread excargodog made the point again how foolish it was to discourage the use of masks, yet no one will even acknowledge how huge of a mistake this was. This whole thing has been a disaster, primarily because nobody has any interest in:
  • Being honest and transparent
  • Admitting that they're not sure about something, or when they were wrong
  • Respectfully asking for help and support when they're not sure
And you wonder why you're driving the struggle bus.
This is painfully hypocritical of you to point your finger and accuse others of pig-headedness, when you've been specifically called out for being wrong and then refuse to adapt your position.

Please don't act that you're above the fray when you're clearly in the mud with everyone.

Regarding your point of lockdown vs social distancing: The outbreak in NYC was bad. How bad? We'll never know for sure because we didn't have tests available in time due to colossal ineptitude by the administration. Estimations are that 1 in 4 New Yorkers have antibodies for COVID. That's a lot of people. Millions. And that's with a lockdown.

You can go back in hindsight and say it was overreaching or whatever, but you really have no idea what an alternate timeline without a lockdown would have looked like. My estimation is that it would look a lot more like Mad Max than today.

So here we are, reviving your prediction from April, and we've got you in a clear underestimation of the consequences. I've given you the chance to amend your position, and you've decided to double down.

It's unfortunate. But not unexpected.
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Old 07-22-2020 | 06:35 PM
  #735  
Anson Harris
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Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot
150K minus the propped up reporting right? If you take away the car fatalities, etc, what's the real number?
Maybe 100? What did the flu kill last year? on average? Keep it all shut down until after flu season and hope you enjoy working at mickey-Ds Wutfarce.
Its the flu...
Not that it will matter to the covid disciples, but I'll try anyway...

I personally am not debating the number of deaths from covid at this point or what they eventually will be. The point was, and still is, that we utterly tolerate tens of thousands of deaths, including young children, with essentially zero government intervention. The position that double or even triple the number of flu deaths justifies suspending civil liberties is something I will never agree with. There are legal opinions which state that the constitution is not a "suicide pact," but it is simply not reasonable to argue that even 500,000 deaths from a disease (in a country of 330 million) is equivalent to national suicide. Nevertheless, it's still a tragedy.
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Old 07-22-2020 | 06:41 PM
  #736  
Anson Harris
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Originally Posted by WutFace
This is painfully hypocritical of you to point your finger and accuse others of pig-headedness, when you've been specifically called out for being wrong and then refuse to adapt your position.

Please don't act that you're above the fray when you're clearly in the mud with everyone.
What exactly is it that I refuse to acknowledge? Perhaps reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, but back in April I said that even the projected number of deaths didn't justify a lockdown in my opinion. If the projected number of deaths was 150k, then that would justify some reasonable actions (which I support). I've feel that I've been pretty clear that reasonable people can disagree on the subjective morality of tolerable deaths, although obviously that's not something you believe.
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Old 07-22-2020 | 06:52 PM
  #737  
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Originally Posted by Anson Harris
What exactly is it that I refuse to acknowledge? Perhaps reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, but back in April I said that even the projected number of deaths didn't justify a lockdown in my opinion. If the projected number of deaths was 150k, then that would justify some reasonable actions (which I support). I've feel that I've been pretty clear that reasonable people can disagree on the subjective morality of tolerable deaths, although obviously that's not something you believe.
(I edited my previous post with some expanded thoughts.)

One thing that you're not really giving any attention to that you really should be is the following:

The country was already shutting down without a mandate.

We can debate the finer points of whether or not state-mandated shutdowns are unconstitutional (spoiler: they're not). But the slow down in travel and business was already happening voluntarily because people are afraid of acquiring COVID-19.

It's real easy to say that this is all the fault of government and that if the lockdowns didn't happen then everything would be hunkydory. You couldn't be further from the truth. There's still a pandemic going on. People are afraid of it. And all the macho posts calling out the fearful as snowflakes or whatever will not change public behavior.

The virus is out of control. And until it gets under control, the economy will suffer.
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Old 07-22-2020 | 07:17 PM
  #738  
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Originally Posted by WutFace
(I edited my previous post with some expanded thoughts.)

One thing that you're not really giving any attention to that you really should be is the following:

The country was already shutting down without a mandate.

We can debate the finer points of whether or not state-mandated shutdowns are unconstitutional (spoiler: they're not). But the slow down in travel and business was already happening voluntarily because people are afraid of acquiring COVID-19.

It's real easy to say that this is all the fault of government and that if the lockdowns didn't happen then everything would be hunkydory. You couldn't be further from the truth. There's still a pandemic going on. People are afraid of it. And all the macho posts calling out the fearful as snowflakes or whatever will not change public behavior.

The virus is out of control. And until it gets under control, the economy will suffer.
Zzzzzzzzzzz
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Old 07-22-2020 | 07:22 PM
  #739  
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Originally Posted by MamaHidesCookie
Zzzzzzzzzzz
Mama, wake up!
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Old 07-23-2020 | 06:36 AM
  #740  
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From WutFace...”The virus is out of control. And until it gets under control, the economy will suffer.“

This statement is valid, like Wutface or not, but this is an accurate statement.

In June as it looked like we were seeing declines in cases in most States the virus was starting to be somewhat more controlled, all kinds of things opened up, unfortunately without safety health protocols in most instances and we are now seeing the virus raging out of control and the economy declining again, unemployment increasing, bookings tanking, etc. Controlling cases is extremely important for the recovery of the economy. It is directly tied to it.

So the current consensus it to mask up, avoid gatherings etc. Many businesses are joining the bandwagon of mandatory masking and hopefully the public gets more used to the idea that this is the fastest way back to “normal” we shall see. I do believe that we will start to see cases decline as masking takes hold, many businesses are counting on it for survival. Many of us here are counting on it also. I can’t imagine how many total furloughs, downgrades to FO, and loss of $$ fleet pay will catch us, but it likely is a good number of us.

We need to unify to get cases down or the economic damages will continue.
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