Buck Rogers

There is post upon post addressing Delta's long range plan(or more correctly the lack thereof) . Now, we are parsing a 4 pilot difference in a category over 400 pilots in size.....less than 1%?

I'm not picking any fights, but I am wondering what I have been missing all the years of AE's that I haven't been taking this seemingly important data into consideration? IOW....even with perfect data, how would you utilize it? Seems like sometimes I have used % for bidding AE's and sometimes # . What do you use this difference in dashboard number for if you determine the mostest, bestest numbers?

I know I'll catch sheit, but you've really got me curious(I prolly cant use it but if it's a useful nugget, I'll pass it on to friends, kids in the biz)

thanks

sailingfun

Vacancies can be for a variety of reasons. Not all are growth. The difference is probably retirement vacancies.

crewdawg

I wouldn't put much faith in a % bid and I definitely wouldn't be measuring with a micrometer. Categories have to potential to go up and down in size pretty fast around here. My category peaked in size on the AE I was awarded it, and has decreased ~30% in the last 2-3 years. I've only recently gotten back to my original relative seniority. A good friend just bid over to Captain and a few months later they announced their plans have changed and his category will be decreasing in size. It's all a crapshoot.

Redbird611

Sound advice. If a certain seniority percentage is critical for QOL it is wise to pad the number more conservatively to allow for possible backsliding.

FL370esq

Yup...CR does tend to change their mind a bit, especially after the scrolls are delivered from Network/Marketing. Unfortunately, there are no certainties, only best guesses on how things will progress. NYC777 was an awesome category back in 2008....but fairly short-lived. Let me know when you find the perfect category that doesn't go up and down (or get closed).

However, if you want to get crazy and actually bid for a posted vacancy, and if you want to use qualifiers (rather than the ol' "I don't care...just get me into the ATL777B"), then I would always recommend bidding based on "Low %" rather than Low Nbr" (unless you want to be, say, top 10 or better in the category). "Reg Only" is a moving target with more guesswork than the first SATs completed by Lori Laughlins' daughters. This is especially true with a new category where it will take time for the bid packages to mature.

"Low %" protects you if the company decides not to award all of the posted vacancies which is not uncommon when they post for a new category. Let's say they post 40 vacancies for SEA220A and you want to be top half. Put "50" in the Low % column rather than "20" in the Low # column. If the company only elects to fill 30 of the 40 posted vacancies, Low # (20/30) just put you at 66.7% rather than top half.

Gunfighter

Great analysis, most WB B make more per day than they would as NB A. Taking rough numbers from 777 vs 73N you would go from 7 hrs x 250 down to 5:15 @ 285. If you work the same hours per month, you get a monthly pay raise by working more days in the month. 84 hours of pay is 12 days on the 777 and 16 days on the 73N.

So the denominator in the % calculation is the actual size of the category after the bid, not the staffing formula number? For example LAX 777 is shrinking by attrition. If someone bids 50%, will it be 50% of the category size after attrition or 50% of the 22.3.D. number? The number on 23.D.3 is the current size, but they have announced plans not to backfill, thus shrinking by attrition.

Trip7

Good analysis. From a pure time off at home standpoint nothing beats the WB lifestyle aside from maybe those on the 73N and 7ER who can hold 8 hr turns

Sent from my SM-G975U1 using Tapatalk

FL370esq

​​​​​​It will be based on the actual category size when the dust settles from the AE run and would thus account for those who have bid out as well as those contingent vacancies not back-filled. 22.D.3 is only a forecast.

freezingflyboy

Maybe (probably) I'm a moron, but I've been trying to wrap my head around a coherent bidding strategy for this AE. I'm currently sitting at about 50% DTW 7ER B. For me, the schedules are still decent (not a ton of int'l which is fine by me), the base works for me (easy commute/commuter friendly) and I like the plane. As long as the schedules don't get (more) trashed I'm perfectly happy where I'm at for the next 4-5 years. However, I would like to have a smart backup strategy for what to do if the category starts shrinking/changing out from under me. I guess what I'm wondering most is the best way to go about:

• Arranging an AE bid if I want to stay put assuming I'd remain at a similar or better relative seniority?
• If it all goes to pot and I drop below a certain percentage in DTW, how to remain on the aircraft but in another base with a reasonable commute?
• If the 7ER category shrinkage accelerates (I WAS IN THE POOL!) how to arrange an AE/VD/MD bid for maximum benefit should it make sense to move to another fleet in DTW at similar seniority (probably 320)?
• If it's all gonna suck anyway, way to maximize profit (maybe a NB A bid?)
• Anything else I'm not thinking about or pitfalls others wish they had avoided.

Is there an "AE/VD/MD Bidding Strategy" guide posted somewhere? I've poked around on the ALPA website and on Deltanet without much success.

tunes

don't get me wrong, i love those turns but i definitely feel a lot more tired after one of those than an ocean crossing.