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Old 01-23-2020 | 07:56 AM
  #491  
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Speaking of crap shoots, in June they are planning to displace In the neighborhood of 200 md88 a’s and 200 md88 b’s in June which is gonna cause all kinds of wonky results. Some of those captains are up to the 4000’s
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Old 01-23-2020 | 08:32 AM
  #492  
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Originally Posted by 4fans
Speaking of crap shoots, in June they are planning to displace In the neighborhood of 200 md88 a’s and 200 md88 b’s in June which is gonna cause all kinds of wonky results. Some of those captains are up to the 4000’s
as of June there will be 395 M88 captains. Number 195 is seniority 5900.
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Old 01-23-2020 | 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Redbird611
January 7ER Fleet Newsletter, but I didn't read it to be that definitive. A few "most likely" will retire at their next heavy check instead of getting interior mods.
I spoke to a 4th floor type about 2 months ago. He specifically stated
-We have 100 or so 757-200s today and in 2030, we will have a 100 or so still flying! All the -300s are staying as well.
-We have 50 or so ERs and we may be down to 15 in 5 years. They are coming East for now
-The A330 is an ER killer.
-The plan is to replace the round dials/gauges with an integrated ADI and different ND
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Old 01-23-2020 | 08:43 AM
  #494  
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Originally Posted by Cogf16
I spoke to a 4th floor type about 2 months ago. He specifically stated
-We have 100 or so 757-200s today and in 2030, we will have a 100 or so still flying! All the -300s are staying as well.
-We have 50 or so ERs and we may be down to 15 in 5 years. They are coming East for now
-The A330 is an ER killer.
-The plan is to replace the round dials/gauges with an integrated ADI and different ND
At the rate of recent MELs another 10 years seems optimistic.
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Old 01-23-2020 | 09:17 AM
  #495  
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Originally Posted by Cogf16
I spoke to a 4th floor type about 2 months ago. He specifically stated
-We have 100 or so 757-200s today and in 2030, we will have a 100 or so still flying! All the -300s are staying as well.
-We have 50 or so ERs and we may be down to 15 in 5 years. They are coming East for now
-The A330 is an ER killer.
-The plan is to replace the round dials/gauges with an integrated ADI and different ND
Interesting its changed that much. I think it was keep almost all the 767 300s just a few months ago. Now the Ts aren't making it past the heavy checks. Now 35 will be gone in 5 years??
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Old 01-23-2020 | 09:44 AM
  #496  
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Originally Posted by Xray678
as of June there will be 395 M88 captains. Number 195 is seniority 5900.
yeah but they are supposedly taking the category down to 150 crews so I guess that would be 250 a displacements. Even worse.
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Old 01-23-2020 | 09:58 AM
  #497  
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Originally Posted by freezingflyboy
Maybe (probably) I'm a moron, but I've been trying to wrap my head around a coherent bidding strategy for this AE. I'm currently sitting at about 50% DTW 7ER B. For me, the schedules are still decent (not a ton of int'l which is fine by me), the base works for me (easy commute/commuter friendly) and I like the plane. As long as the schedules don't get (more) trashed I'm perfectly happy where I'm at for the next 4-5 years. However, I would like to have a smart backup strategy for what to do if the category starts shrinking/changing out from under me. I guess what I'm wondering most is the best way to go about:
  • Arranging an AE bid if I want to stay put assuming I'd remain at a similar or better relative seniority?
  • If it all goes to pot and I drop below a certain percentage in DTW, how to remain on the aircraft but in another base with a reasonable commute?
  • If the 7ER category shrinkage accelerates (I WAS IN THE POOL!) how to arrange an AE/VD/MD bid for maximum benefit should it make sense to move to another fleet in DTW at similar seniority (probably 320)?
  • If it's all gonna suck anyway, way to maximize profit (maybe a NB A bid?)
  • Anything else I'm not thinking about or pitfalls others wish they had avoided.

Is there an "AE/VD/MD Bidding Strategy" guide posted somewhere? I've poked around on the ALPA website and on Deltanet without much success.
Make your first bid something that won't happen (ATL777A Low Nbr "1"). Make your second bid your current category at a %age acceptable to you (the "I wanna stay DTW7ERB at 50%" bid, for example). If that bid is not honored, put your next choice as either XXX7ERB which is the base and %age you would be happy with if you couldn't sit in DTW at the %age you like or, pick a different category in DTW with a percentage you do like. In the end, it is all about what options you want and how you rank order them.
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Old 01-23-2020 | 10:00 AM
  #498  
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Originally Posted by 4fans
yeah but they are supposedly taking the category down to 150 crews so I guess that would be 250 a displacements. Even worse.
fair enough. Number 145 would be seniority 4600. I suspect with all the 737 and 320 vacancies in this current bid, there will be a large number of 88 captains bidding off. That will help lower the number of displacements on the next bid.
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Old 01-23-2020 | 11:05 AM
  #499  
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Originally Posted by 4fans
Speaking of crap shoots, in June they are planning to displace In the neighborhood of 200 md88 a’s and 200 md88 b’s in June which is gonna cause all kinds of wonky results. Some of those captains are up to the 4000’s
They will likely begin displacing LAX 777. Those FOs are senior to MD88A. The Captains are in the mid triple digits. It will likely be contained within the 777 fleet as it moves to ATL/NYC and the 350 opening in LAX.
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Old 01-23-2020 | 12:38 PM
  #500  
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Originally Posted by Xray678
fair enough. Number 145 would be seniority 4600. I suspect with all the 737 and 320 vacancies in this current bid, there will be a large number of 88 captains bidding off. That will help lower the number of displacements on the next bid.
until they backfill to meet summer flying. I don t expect the 88 to shrink at all this AE.
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