Right until they delay the MAX return to service until ????, then we'll keep the dog flying just a little longer. I wouldn't base my bid around what might happen to the 88. In the span of a season the 717 went from getting their leases extended until 2030 with all new entertainment systems in back, to 'it's too expensive to RNP, they're gone in 4 years'. The quality of data coming from the 4th floor reminds me of Baghdad Bob's information during the gulf war.

my concern with an expected displacement this large, is that your % bid could land you in a narrowbody Atl category and then in June, possibly before you even train, have that % be wildly effected by the displacements but be unable to do anything about it because of your new seat lock. If 100 md 88 pilots went to any single narrowbody category in Atlanta it would cause a big shift.

What category in ATL other than WB captains won't be affected by 250 88's looking for a new home? Those displacements will be more than offset by 2-3 years of ATL retirements. There's 0 way to accurately predict what will happen, best to not worry over it too much. You can stay put and see the 88 fallout and then in 2 years you can come here and complain how such and such category was awarded "out of seniority"

The block hours are not going anywhere. The displacements will be over time as replacement aircraft are brought online. The only real effect on the pilot group will be a nice raise for a large number of pilots.

yes I agree there is zero way to predict what will happen with such a large displacement. It’s weird that we are making the same point but one of us is dismissive of the point. I think an additional large factor in June is what categories the company will choose to add vacancies to offset the 88 displacements. It is kind of helpful to know that 2-3 years of retirements will soften the blow, but 2-3 years is the whole seat lock.

I'm not dismissive of the point at all, I'm junior 717a so I could easily be displaced but other than having some displacement preferences there's not much I can do about it. As SF said above, we're not giving up block hours they're just going to other planes -- hopefully the block hours stay in ATL but again that's something I cannot predict or control. I feel like you're just succumbing to paralysis by analysis. Bid what you want and don't worry about the 88s. I suspect 717a will absorb more than its share (I think 60ish 88As from the last time we had a surplus bid landed here) but aside from that I doubt their numbers will have any major effect on a category.

Bets on Nyc 717A? 12,900

13,250.

If it goes that high, beers on me (If you are on probation and flying with me)

I have NYC 220A and 717A in there. In reality I'm probably staying on the ER in the right seat. Just hoping to move off the bottom.

I had thought of going to 73 or 320 in NYC but the commutabilty sucks, even at 40%

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I think you’re right. I am succumbing to paralysis but analysis. Thank you for helping me realiZe that. I just may put a bid in on this AE after all. Cheers.

Commutability sucked at 20% there