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Old 04-25-2020 | 09:47 AM
  #1361  
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Originally Posted by Turbosina
We had Warthogs in 1945? Was that before they re-engined them with the CF34?
Definitely before. They were called the P-47.
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Old 04-25-2020 | 10:00 AM
  #1362  
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
I'd take a SIL too, because I have a side job that I enjoy more than working here!

I'm sure a lot or reserve/guard guys would too.
Although my gigolo gig tried up at the nursing home, I'd take SIL. The industry is on life support, and could be survival of the fittest.
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Old 04-25-2020 | 10:11 AM
  #1363  
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Originally Posted by Hank Kingsley
Although my gigolo gig tried up at the nursing home, I'd take SIL. The industry is on life support, and could be survival of the fittest.
I would take one. Seems like a win-win.
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Old 04-25-2020 | 10:32 AM
  #1364  
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Originally Posted by block30
TSA throughput numbers https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput last few days:
4/24/2020 123,464
4/23/2020 111,627
4/22/2020 98,968
4/21/2020 92,859
Let's hope the trend continues. Those numbers are up slightly over the same day last week.
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Old 04-25-2020 | 11:03 AM
  #1365  
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Originally Posted by Gunfighter
Let's hope the trend continues. Those numbers are up slightly over the same day last week.
^^^ This. They are indeed up, by 20-30% depending on the day, but still down about 95% YOY.

I think the more interesting question to pose with the TSA numbers is, at what percentage of YOY volume do we think that:

1) flights are added back into the schedule enough to pull airplanes from parking?
2) company asks non cons on LOA to return?
3) we hit a daily cash burn of $25M? $10M? $5M?
4) likelihood of furlough <50%, <10% ?

What think ye?
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Old 04-25-2020 | 11:20 AM
  #1366  
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Originally Posted by Funk
^^^ This. They are indeed up, by 20-30% depending on the day, but still down about 95% YOY.

I think the more interesting question to pose with the TSA numbers is, at what percentage of YOY volume do we think that:

1) flights are added back into the schedule enough to pull airplanes from parking?
2) company asks non cons on LOA to return?
3) we hit a daily cash burn of $25M? $10M? $5M?
4) likelihood of furlough <50%, <10% ?

What think ye?
I'd say it's not just a certain percentage, but also how fast/steady the trend is heading back up since they'll want to bring back the capacity ahead of needing it. But to your point in general, I think 500,000 throughput is a good first milestone.
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Old 04-25-2020 | 11:24 AM
  #1367  
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Knowing Deltas track record of negotiating and not wanting to p$ss off non cons. I would say early retirement package will be lame and no one will take it except guys in there last months on the property. Maybe SILS . lay-off between 1000-3000 pilots depending on takers of early outs and SILS😷
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Old 04-25-2020 | 11:48 AM
  #1368  
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Originally Posted by Jaww
It was a tongue in cheek comment. I was basically joking that most of the people in airports are crew members. Bad execution on my part I guess.


Ahh, gotcha haha
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Old 04-25-2020 | 01:38 PM
  #1369  
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Originally Posted by MOTOJOE
Knowing Deltas track record of negotiating and not wanting to p$ss off non cons. I would say early retirement package will be lame and no one will take it except guys in there last months on the property. Maybe SILS . lay-off between 1000-3000 pilots depending on takers of early outs and SILS😷
Agreed. Gotta think a boat load of 777 and 767-400 displacements right off the bat. Prime candidates to take the early. Some will call in sick day one of training, others will attempt the Airbus. I can say FL CH or Open Descent. Not a problem. I'd prefer an early out.
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Old 04-25-2020 | 02:16 PM
  #1370  
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Originally Posted by Funk
^^^ This. They are indeed up, by 20-30% depending on the day, but still down about 95% YOY.

I think the more interesting question to pose with the TSA numbers is, at what percentage of YOY volume do we think that:

1) flights are added back into the schedule enough to pull airplanes from parking?
2) company asks non cons on LOA to return?
3) we hit a daily cash burn of $25M? $10M? $5M?
4) likelihood of furlough <50%, <10% ?

What think ye?
The way this works I doubt we will see schedule increases before June.

1 July
2 Sept
3 October - combo loads and furloughs
4 20 pct.

Completely off the cuff and worth less than zero.
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