All interviews are canceled going forward BUT they are holding the two classes on 16MAR and 23MAR as those pilots have already separated with their employers. Class in indoc right now will rebid their assignments.

Training Schedulers, planners and managers are surely swamped.

 

I've had a denominator problem with the numbers reported on this. It spreads fast. And it's mild for those willing to report that.


Right now 150,000 cases, 5600 dead. I think the dead number is accurate to give or take, 150,000 not so much. But if you use those numbers you're looking at 4% death rate if you get it, or in internet numbers, 5600/150000 = 100% die, head to costco NOW!


I just don't think 150K is right though.


I would love better numbers and South Korea may have it:


https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/


Active Cases

7,300

Currently Infected Patients

7,241 (99%)

in Mild Condition


59 (1%)

Serious or Critical

 

Wrong. The flowback is still very much in force. It is and always has been binding to DL and DALPA, not CPZ or TS or any other regional. The company can eliminate the flowback anytime they want, they just have to park 35 large RJ's. Maybe their plan is to do that anyway, who knows. But they don't get to keep all the large RJ's around while furloughing any DL pilots (if it comes to that) unless there is a flowdown.

 

source for this?

 

Director of Training in a message on Workplace.

 

FYI News just reported that an AA pilot contracted the virus this Saturday.

 

If it bleeds it leads.

I agree that most rational analysis will show that the death rate is almost certainly likely to be significantly lower than any current divisional formula claims to show, precicely because the "numerator" is likely much, much higher than currently reported. Simply because most cases seem to range anywhere from regular cold/flu to "didn't even know they had it". So clearly not only some cases, but a large majority of cases, aren't being reported worldwide. Unless someone wants to claim that every cold/flu symptom in a place where numbers are coming from is being reported and logged (lol please) then the top number is not only higher but likely radically higher. Likewise, the denominator is most likely to be highly accurate, as in close to 100%. If you die from it, that's orders of magnitude harder to hide or ignore compared to just not reporting mild symptoms which are mostly something else anyway.

The real concern though isn't the top or bottom number nearly as much as it is the number (both percent as well as total on a rolling basis) who will need to be hospitalized, how long they'll need it and how intensive the care will need to be. That's where all the "flattening the curve" urgency really comes from. Regardless of how many people get it or what number die from it, if we don't flatten the curve it could lead to some horrific battlefield triage tactics that we're not socially prepared for.



I read we have a max of 160K ventilators nation wide, and obvioulsy at any given time many are in use anyway. A Spanish Flu contageon model (yes that's but one presumptive calculation and may or may not happen, or it could be worse) would require 750K ventillators. Hence we see what's going on in Italy with supposedly top doctors calling for brutal age related triage.

This is a big deal and needs to be handled. The good news seems to be that significant steps towards that end have been and are being taken. Regardless of political affiliation, there should be a zero tolerance policy right now towards any attempt to sneak in pet project funding for anything not directly related to this in any proposal to address this.

 

hmm, okay. Figured we would rebid. Just finished my first week of indoc, I'm on the 717. Wondering if that will even be an option anymore.

 

Exactly. Enjoy low ALV’s, not getting used much on Res, not a lot of GS’s and time off this summer.

 

SolId post.

As to the ventilators, I'd have to read up on the swine flu because I barely remember it. But was that respiratory? If so, maybe we are alright in that regard because 60M got that here, 200k died worldwide and I think 18k here. I dont recall, well anything about it.

I'd have to go research it.