Projecting Delta’s Loses
04-02-2020, 06:41 PM
#72
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Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 488
Originally Posted by Mesabah
Given the success of past attempts to make a coronavirus vaccine, you are probably correct, there is no vaccine coming.
Yep.
Everything I have come accross says there basically has never been a successful human coronavirus vaccine.
04-02-2020, 07:04 PM
#73
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Joined APC: Apr 2008
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Posts: 23,286
Originally Posted by APCLurker
Yep.
Everything I have come accross says there basically has never been a successful human coronavirus vaccine.
Everything I have come accross says there basically has never been a successful human coronavirus vaccine.
04-02-2020, 07:10 PM
#75
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you can see from the model there on April 1st, yesterday, we will have 121,000 hospitalized.
there will be 50,000 alone in ny according to the model on April 1st. There will not be enough beds and ventilator for all of them.
fwiw. The actual number was 31,000 with 18,000 in ny.
but let’s liquidate everything based on the models.
04-02-2020, 09:07 PM
#76
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,033
Cuomo says we have 6 days until that point now. So the lock down shifted and flattened the curve by 8 days. Imagine if just let this thing run its course and didn’t shut down. I’m not saying this won’t get much worse just that we seemed to have slowed the timeline. I just heard the peak is now forecast for late April, I hope we don’t see the forecast numbers but the data is still coming in.
04-03-2020, 03:03 AM
#77
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
Originally Posted by ERflyer
I wish I had dollar every time someone said there was never going to be another black swan event. They’re suddenly so quiet.
04-03-2020, 03:14 AM
#78
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,191
Originally Posted by sailingfun
I have noticed all the posts mocking the term black swan we saw are gone.
If the discussion was about making up for lost retirement and how much the DC would be worth...all the new guys would scream "black swan", we can't count on that!
If the discussion was about "proactive engagement and strike while you have leverage because you never know what the future will bring" it was like what black swan? I can live under this contract forever.
It was usually the same people, arguing both sides of the "black sean" argument. The only thing that changed their perspective on any given day was which side of the argument put more money in their pocket.
That's just human nature.
04-03-2020, 03:16 AM
#79
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Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Fetal
Posts: 1,148
Originally Posted by sailingfun
I have noticed all the posts mocking the term black swan we saw are gone.
I’m sure you had “manufactured panic due to global, marginally-lethal pandemic” on your list of reasons to vote yes to everything.
04-03-2020, 04:43 AM
#80
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Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 1,418
Originally Posted by GucciBoy
I’m sure you had “manufactured panic due to global, marginally-lethal pandemic” on your list of reasons to vote yes to everything.
That’s why rows of morgue trucks are lined up at New York hospitals.
That’s why there are thousands of extra funeral urns at Chinese morgues.
It’s not the pneumonic plague but I wouldn’t call it manufactured.
As an airline pilot everything should be on your list. Pilots who fail to know this do so at their own risk. I’m glad we had a pragmatic risk adverse policy at our MEC for as long as we did.
Ironically, we are now better off with a MEC who will be more confrontational.
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