Of course a BK judge would “consider” it. In reality, if the company wants a higher ALV, what do you think would actually happen.....that’s a rhetorical question. We all know what would happen.

Your argument about widebodies getting higher ALVs in a deal for targeted ALVs (in the next 6 months) is incorrect IMO. They will get higher ones next summer but before then hello low ALVs. As to you implication that the company needs wideboby A’s now......if it actually did as badly as you imply, management would not have negotiated to allow VEOPers like me to leave earlier if we want to.

Denny

 

Hence the reason they want the ALV reduction. It gives them the greatest flexibility.

 

I have never posted widebodies would get a higher ALV in exchange for anything. I pointed out that widebody staffing is actually low compared to other fleets and the statements that the company is asking for a targeted ALV for widebodies only is incorrect. If the company got a ALV they can target the lowest ALV’s on average it would be the narrow bodies. The 777 shutdown and the VEOP radically changed where the biggest pilot surpluses are now found. The bid just closed backs that up and might even have been the biggest widebody award in company history. Certainly the largest that was not a 1 year bid.

 

So short that they did NOT reinstate a bunch of us on the 330B.

 

Correct, you did not say widebodies would get a higher ALV in any deal BUT you implied that WB’s would have a higher ALV because of the VEOP (and 777 closing) and that WB categories would not see an ALV reduction in a targeted plan. I dispute this implication. I think WB’s will definitely see a LOWER ALV over the next 6 months plus. This is the third time I have posted this and yet have not received a comment about it from you. What do you think?

Of course ALV’s will be higher in the summer. Pretty much all category ALV’s will be higher in the summer. That doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out. What about the rest of the year? A targeted ALV gives the company to much leeway and picks winners and losers. IMO if a reduced ALV is negotiated it should apply to all categories equally.

I’m curious how long do you think the company is looking for a reduced/targeted ALV deal?

Denny

Edit: Also I do NOT think the 330 is undermanned for the fall/winter of this year with COVID going on. A lot of pilots were reinstated to the 330 on this last bid and never left the category. The company has quite a while to train new people for next summer. The A350 might be a different story.

 

I agree with most of what your posting. What I dispute is the company wants a widebody only ALV reduction. Yes they want a targeted ALV. That’s what gives them the ability to adjust flying rapidly. ALV‘S would all be low this winter. That’s the point of the whole thing.

 

I wasn't around for bankruptcy. Does this "starting point" concept accurately reflect how a BK judge actually thinks and behaves? It's a commonly repeated theme... should we enter BK court, we want to do it from the highest water mark possible. But I honestly don't get it. In BK, operating costs and debts exceed revenue, so the company is attempting to restructure to get projected costs and debt obligations below projected revenue, right? Doesn't a judge just validate if a proposed (or executed) departure from the existing PWA is necessary... not that it is or isn't above or below some percentage value?

If I'm cutting my family's budget to balance cash flow, I don't honestly care what I used to spend. I need to get down to X, no matter what Y USED to be.

What am I missing? Is the consensus from last time that had the union NOT agreed to a 32% pay cut before BK, the end state 40+% cut wouldn't have been so big? Or is the desire to maximize income before it eventually falls per the BK judge's decree?

 

I’ve heard the gov is working a deal so employee contracts can’t be touched in bankruptcy? I’m probably wrong but hope that’s true. I don’t know much of anything.

 

No one can know for sure (except the BK judge) what the BK judge thinks but........ I’ll lay pretty good odds that any deal that reduces our contractual provisions and helps the company before a BK is declared, will be a pretty good starting point for him/her. It’s EXACTLY what happened in the previous BK. The company didn’t get all it asked for but it got a substantial amount. IMO more than it needed.

Again IMO, the dollar amount you you are looking for to determine debt vs revenue is a moving target in BK. There are so many other things that affect it other than the pilot contract. I might even go so far as to say thePWA isn’t in the top 5 affecting it.

The company uses the BK process to extract the maximum amount it can. Dalpa of course fights to keep as much as it can. You can bet that the pendulum is on the company’s side and that’s where the judge will come down. It’s just a question of how far........and if you start mor towards the middle, guess what happens......my opinion of course.

Obviously no one can know for sure how much would have been taken in the last BK if now cuts had been taken. But in the court of public opinion a 46% pay cut is waaaaaay different than a 14% pay cut. I will say again, if you start more towards the middle, guess what happens.......my opinion of course

Denny

 

So does the death of RGB and the ensuing political fight greatly reduce the chances of CARES 2? Not looking to discuss the Supreme Court issues, just the effects on both sides agreeing to anything right now.