I keep hearing this - The company knows how many Pilots we will need for summer 2021. Really? The company knows how this will all play out? How exactly do they know this? What governments will retain a travel ban? What states will retain lock-down protocols? When will Disney Land Open? Does the company know these things? I don't believe that for 1 second. I don't believe anyone has anything other than a barely educated guess how this plays out. They can possibly survey for corporate/traveler intentions but with all of the variables how accurate will that be?

You give management or anyone who thinks they can predict this way too much credit. We and every other airline is blundering our way through one day at a time as best as possible. All they really know for sure is that if Cares 2 get approved we will be carrying a huge surplus of Pilots for some time. Best case, due to a confluence of events demand picks up before Cares 2 expires.

Scoop

 

i see so many people playing checkers in here while the company is playing chess.

 

I’m not sure I’d be throwing stones if I were you

 

Precisely. Never, ever lose sight of this.

 

Is this like battlestar galactica when you keep seeing in the title scrawl "and they have a plan". Then you dig deep and you see the blueray specials of the writing room every week where they're just making stuff up, there is no plan, and only one single line drawn on the whiteboard of the allegory touchstones from the first BSG and the book (which some might capitalize the b in there) it was based off of?

Too deep a cut? Here let me say this another way. When you can't control anything for months at a time, there's an impulse for people (management) to try and control the knuckleheaded stuff. Knuckleheaded stuff like, "who in my team is really with me, and who is the other", "what scores can I settle", "how can i make it seem like I'm doing my job"? "How do keep pilot compensation under wraps when the NMB just told us 'youve got record profits, so shooting for a revenue nuetral contract while trying to hold costs down to 2-3% will not fly with us' ".

The government paid employee wages until 4 days ago. For six months you had to try to prepare for October, but it turns out, holy crap this thing is way way worse than "just two weeks" like we assumed back in March.

The revenue problem is the only problem, and its a problem managers can't fix. So youve got a great opportunity to try and control costs, maybe you even pretend this will set you up for 5-10 more years- hey lets look at fleet moderization too while prices are down... Doesnt fix the problem but it's knuckleheaded stuff that makes management look like theyre doing something for a long term vision.

 

*LIKE*

To borrow from the hurricane models, the cone of certainty is very wide for summer demand and staffing guesses.

Because of this wide range, there is tremendous risk in any staffing solution they set today in October. Which is exactly the reason they won’t commit to specific headcount ties to the LOA.

To carry the analogy, we can ask for volunteers now to leave the beach (in exchange for less pay and commitment), or we can let the company make those cuts involuntarily at a later date. Maybe that number is 1000, maybe it’s 1941, maybe it’s 2500+ if Covid gets worse. Maybe it’s 1000 now and another 1000 3 months from now. The company will adjust their plan as time moves on. This isn’t a static staffing commitment they are bound to today.

 

Just look at actions Scoop.

Too date no furloughs. They pushed their dreaded 1 Oct deadline back a month. Why?

We went from 2558 ----> 1941 -----> 1721 -----> ????

No, I think they have a target manning, the specificity is probably +/- 3% and now they are playing around with us like a cat does with a dead mouse. My guess is they are shooting at 40% bookings from last year. Staffing is based on that. Should put us around 10,235 on the list. I might have made a math error, but I think I'll be pretty close.

They are partying in Wuhan right now. Pool parties and raves. No masks. China has fully opened their domestic air travel back in August. Last week was golden Week. Tons of travel occurring around Asia. Disney World is open - has been since July. Disneyland, well see Newsom. That's on him. We can't help the politics of the mask dude. Pandora's box has been open and we'll never get it back.

Suffice to say, delta management is plugged in to many streams of information that we are not privy to. Telling of their actions of late on the business side. Doesn't seem to me to be those of a company in dire straits.

 

What world do you live in?

 

3rd rock from the sun, you?
You might want to do a little research about the rest of the world son.

 

We “flattened the curve” and are getting the prolonged epidemic we asked for.

China and Sweden let the virus burn through, and they’re on the other side.

The “30-40%” plateau since Labor Day is pretty amazing to see graphically. The 2020 curve mirrors 2019 almost exactly, minus 60-70%. Makes you wonder who comprises that deficit. My guess is that 10-15% was “very discretionary” travel that won’t return for a decade (recovery after a post-CARES recession/depression).

We’ll be “fully recovered” as a group once we get back to 12,500 active pilots on the seniority list.