LumberJack

CX500T, I'm curious how you explain away the excess deaths. If this is so overblown, and the reporting is all pumped up, why did so many more people die in 2020 than usual?

CDC National Center for Health Statistics

"Counts of deaths from all causes of death, including COVID-19, are presented. As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems)."

hvydvr

I've seen this graph a lot. Here's the way I would explain the excess deaths. Look at the orange line between 2018 and 2020. In 2018, there was a hard flu season. We didn't hear much about it because well...flu. Now look at the gap between actual deaths and that orange line over these two years right before COVID kicks in. What does that gap mean? It means that there's a lot of old people walking around for two years because the flu was a lot more mild than usual. Nature hates a departure from the average. COVID wiped out the overage and then some. Anyone think next year's flu season is going to be a harsh one? I'm thinking not because a lot of the folks who would normally be susceptible got nailed in 2020.

Trip7

Sure it's not that deadly for younger folks, but it is bad enough to overwhelm the health system. When that happens deaths from those that are not elderly will start to spike. We're in a race to get people vaccinated because the virus has already mutated to a much more contagious version. It will start to spike US cases in 3 to 4 weeks becoming the dominant strain here. Hopefully it doesn't mutate further and gain ability to evade the vaccine. The more it spreads the more chances it has to mutate.

At the end of the day this is a story of compassion for your fellow human beings and saving lives. Take that out of the plan and this becomes a genetic lottery of "The Strongest Survive" similar to how the Spanish flu epidemic ended because those infected either became immune or died.

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hockeypilot44

Don't have to tell all 50. I went to an NHL game last night. Granted arena was fairly empty due to restricted capacity.

Lifeisgood

Bingo, not reset, more like switch from western civilization to Marxism

FangsF15

THANK YOU, Shy Guy. Even if it doesn’t hold, I for one appreciate the effort.

jacinth

In open states it hasn’t come close yet to overwhelming the health system. And if you plot the states next to each other you couldn’t differentiate which states are open and which have absurd policies implemented. Total US hospitalizations were under 2019 levels and didn’t even get close on a daily basis until the end of the year. We’re in our seasonal spike right now. Total hospitalizations will come back down although there will still be “covid hospitalization” spikes due to our absurd use of PCR testing.

LumberJack

I appreciate the effort but there are flaws in your logic. First, the gaps you're referring to are short lived (early 2019 and early 2020). Second, the gaps are no where near the same size as the excess for Q2-Q4 2020. Add up the mild flu season for 2019 and early 2020, and you're not even close to the total excess for the rest of 2020.

Third, you're "departure from the average" statement is flawed because 2017 and 2018 had excess deaths. Why doesn't your logic apply in reverse? I would expect a reversion to the mean following those years, which is what we saw in 2019.

Lastly, the flu season was shaping up to be normal for 2020. If we had an excess amount of at-risk people from 2019, why weren't they showing up in the data for January and February 2020?

hvydvr

My logic is fine. Feel free to do your own math under the curve.

Excargodog

SERIOUSLY?



Yeah, every death is a tragedy but we generally lose about 150 a year DOD wide to on duty accidents/illnesses.