He did not say that, that's also an HK original.

 

Well please consider: The oldest 319 hits 30 years old in 2029, and the youngest in 2033. Our younger batch 320s (Ships 3251-3278) will hit 30 years old between 2027-2033.
All 737-800s hit 30yrs old between 2027-2032, with the exception of the 6 ex-GOL. About 30 752s can make it to 2035 if they fly 34 years.

It was as if you were leaking some new development, but the expected and normal retirement timeframe for the 319/320s has always been the early 2030s as they come up for heavy checks at 30/34 year mark. Some jets can go through checks to 34 years to mass retire with the newer builds at 30yrs (see 757).

As for replacements, we rarely order new jets >5yrs out. The RFP for new NBs into the 2030s will need to cover 85 319/320s, 71 737-800s (likely all 77), 80 717s, ~60 752s, 16 753s. Thats 300+ jets. Many of our 220s/321neos will be here concurrently, to trickle out older 320s & 757s, and add growth. Who knows how many MAX aircraft we see by 2030 at this rate. There will need to be another big NB order to cover deliveries in the 2030-35 timeframe, likely with high numbers being taken per year. SAQ airport jets are niche, and any MAX8 would surely be evaluated as part of a much larger order. There's not much to choose from amongst the new gen products. (MAX8, 319/20neo, A221/3).

 

I guess the question no one wants asked or answered, and not sure anyone would know the answer anyway, could they be considering future even economics. If stagflation takes hold and the consumer starts to get priced out of vacations and companies pull back on corporate travel, there is a possibility Delta's plan-x or whatever could entail a gradual drift back down to 14,000 or perhaps even less pilots if the economy faulters. Who knows, but in which case zero planes would need to be replaced. The stock would explode if there was more demand than lift, not so much the other way around.

 

Stagnation for 5-10 years? Has that ever happened before?

 

Most of the 70s. It seems like we're heading in that direction now, though maybe not lasting as long.

 

General and I discussed the 319 as well as the 75 in light of SAQ. The MAX 8 will fill in many of those. That's what was discussed in our posts.

 

It's not economics, otherwise United, American and SWA would be pulling back their hiring.

Again the word has come down from on high, efficiency. Nothing more. They're going to run this op lean, very lean and extract as much efficiency out of our group we can stand.

 

Here’s my best quick stab at an answer.

Economic history drives everything in aviation hiring. There are shelves of books on this, but here’s the short version:

The Great Depression was only broken by WWII. Coming out of it, the U.S. sold the world on the idea that we had “won,” and Bretton Woods locked the dollar in as the global reserve. Gold was pegged at $32/oz.

The Korean and Vietnam wars created huge deficits, and one by one foreign countries started demanding gold instead of Treasuries. The U.S. didn’t have the reserves, so Nixon broke the gold peg in 1971. That allowed the dollar to devalue and debts to be paid back with future inflation.

The Cold War and Reaganomics unleashed massive defense spending, the likes of which hadn’t been seen since the Third Reich’s rearmament. A few small recessions followed, then the dot-com bust and 9/11, and suddenly we were in a two-decade Global War on Terror that exploded deficits again.

The Great Financial Crisis hit in 2008, and deficits swelled from 2008–2019 without much improvement to wages. Then came COVID — which, in my view, was a form of economic warfare that accelerated what was already coming.

Now? Foreign buyers have largely stepped away from U.S. Treasuries. The Fed and money markets are carrying the load, and the dollar has already lost ~7% YTD against a basket of currencies. Look at the Kuwaiti dinar for comparison — this will get worse.

To answer your specific question: yes, there have been three major stagnations — the Great Depression, the stagflation of the 1970s, and the GFC. Many of the sharpest financial voices are saying we’re due for another, this time more likely a dollar crisis. Interest liabilities are already north of $1T annually. That means the Fed will be pressured to cut rates just so the government doesn’t default on its own debt — which guarantees more inflation without real wage growth. Meanwhile, AI will drive wage compression over the next five years. If you think commercial real estate is bad now, wait until firms realize they don’t need 50, 200, or several thousand employees.

From the airline seat, I see two competing strategies:

United: bet big, inflate their way out, with history suggesting the government will step in to shield airlines if it comes to that.

Delta: hedge for stagflation. Ed’s got nearly four decades of scars that say things don’t always end well. But he does have the option to flex 17,000 pilots next summer, tightening capacity and forcing a product shortage in targeted markets.

As a pilot, I like the UAL strategy. However, as someone who doesn't want to stare down the barrel of financial concessions during a period of potential stagflation, Ed has the better strategy.

 

Delta Air Lines — Available Seat Miles (ASMs)

2019: 275 (billion ASMs)

2020: 134

2021: 194

2022: 233

2023: 272

2024: 288

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larges...s_in_the_world

So 14,500 pilots in 2019 with how many were wrapped up in reserve military work vs 17,300 pilots today.

2019 = 19.0 million ASMs per pilot
2024 = 16.6 million ASMs per pilot

Efficiency is down, mostly due to PWA improvements. My block hours have dropped the same percentage 2019 to 2024

I disagree, they are not just chasing efficiency, they are playing 3D chess like 100k jobs depend on it.

 

General's OPINION was that the max 8 would ALLOW them to retire 319s. You somehow morphed that into we are getting Max 8s and the 319s are going away.