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11-15-2025 | 12:48 PM

#5821

FangsF15

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Meme In Command

I haven't heard 1800, but the optimists say that DL felt the need to play their cards close to their chest after putting out more optimistic numbers before and having to reign them back. So some are speculating DL is publicly saying they plan to hire 500 to cover retirements, but secretly plan to hire more than that.

+1 to this. The official answer as of 3 days ago is (still) only for “attrition”. But there seems to be a wink with that, which indicates there will almost certainly be more, but they are keeping those cards very close to the chest.

11-15-2025 | 12:50 PM

#5822

RStrawberry

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Joined: Nov 2025

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So 1800 is probably out to lunch then. Got it. 1000 seems about on par with their long term projections of attrition + 3 percent growth.

11-15-2025 | 01:24 PM

#5823

FangsF15

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RStrawberry

So 1800 is probably out to lunch then. Got it. 1000 seems about on par with their long term projections of attrition + 3 percent growth.

Yeah, I’d say that about right.

11-15-2025 | 02:01 PM

#5824

flosd

On Reserve

Joined: Nov 2021

Posts: 77

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RStrawberry

just met an FO at my company (non-NK ULCC) who had 1500 turbine, 0 TPIC. CFI to A320. It’s competitive but the averages are coming down. Good luck!

Thanks for the data point, I'm also right around the 1500 turbine, 0 TPIC area. Fingers crossed!

11-15-2025 | 02:35 PM

#5825

1Taco

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Joined: Mar 2016

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FangsF15

Yeah, I’d say that about right.

well, with ~3% growth, this year’s attrition and the fact that we didn’t hire nearly enough
last year; 1,800 isn’t that far fetched.

11-15-2025 | 02:48 PM

#5826

RStrawberry

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Joined: Nov 2025

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 1Taco

well, with ~3% growth, this year’s attrition and the fact that we didn’t hire nearly enough
last year; 1,800 isn’t that far fetched.

this is a fair point. 3% is an average and they def did not meet 3% in 2025 so 1300-1600 may not be too crazy an aim.

11-15-2025 | 02:53 PM

#5827

tennisguru

Roll’n Thunder

Joined: Oct 2009

Posts: 5,111

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From: Pilot

I think we’ll have a mini-hiring boom around 2027 if we ever start getting the max 10s and 350-1000s. Those deliveries will drive significant hiring.

11-15-2025 | 04:01 PM

#5828

FangsF15

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 1Taco

well, with ~3% growth, this year’s attrition and the fact that we didn’t hire nearly enough
last year; 1,800 isn’t that far fetched.

Well, 3% of 17250 is 517, plus 516 scheduled retirements in 2026 (aka "attrition"). Add in a handful of early retirements, and you are looking at 1050-1100 hired with 3% growth.

Hiring 1800 would require ~1300 above attrition, which would mean ~7.5% growth. I don't think anyone seriously thinks we will grow 7.5%.

On the high side, I'd say 4% would be max, and that would result in a total of ~1200 hired in '26.

11-15-2025 | 04:33 PM

#5829

Abouttime2fish

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Joined: Jul 2014

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From: MD88

Quote:

Originally Posted by RStrawberry

So 1800 is probably out to lunch then. Got it. 1000 seems about on par with their long term projections of attrition + 3 percent growth.

id heard 1500-1800 maybe 6 months ago. Then the ‘official’ hiring projection 500 for attrition number came out. I’m a nobody line shmuck, but I don’t think they really know and are holding cards close. If you can answer the timeline/future of 787, 73max, 717, 75/76, then maybe you can start figuring out the pilot hiring requirements.