New Hire Class Drops
04-10-2026 | 03:24 AM
#6481
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2023
Posts: 33
Likes: 1
If your goal is to get to MSP as quickly as possible and no MSP position is offered in your drop (or your SSN is low and you think you're not going to get it) then bid for 73N, 320, and 220 in any other base. You'll probably be able to transfer to MSP by the first AE, before you're even done with training.
If your goal is to get MSP 220 specifically as quickly as possible, then bid any 220 slot in another base first, then any airplane that's not currently based in MSP, which would be 717 and 7ER. That way you can break the seat lock after 1 year to go to MSP 220 instead of 2 years if you're on another aircraft that is based in MSP.
If your goal is to get MSP 220 specifically as quickly as possible, then bid any 220 slot in another base first, then any airplane that's not currently based in MSP, which would be 717 and 7ER. That way you can break the seat lock after 1 year to go to MSP 220 instead of 2 years if you're on another aircraft that is based in MSP.
04-10-2026 | 12:59 PM
#6482
Back on Reserve
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 841
Likes: 23
I'll drop this again as a reference for all folks joining DL and hoping for a quick upgrade.
Using the 'System-seniority-%-to-hold' is a much better way to forecast how long it'll take you to upgrade.
The ALPA website can show you predicted retirements to help you figure out how quickly your number will rise. Calculating how many are hired after you (needed for the total list size) is anyone's guess, and thus is the unknown/unknowable. Look at the analysis that Fangs has done and it'll give you the best data-driven estimate for "time to upgrade". Spoiler: no one can guarantee a 'time to upgrade'.
AE Trend Analysis thread
Using the 'System-seniority-%-to-hold' is a much better way to forecast how long it'll take you to upgrade.
The ALPA website can show you predicted retirements to help you figure out how quickly your number will rise. Calculating how many are hired after you (needed for the total list size) is anyone's guess, and thus is the unknown/unknowable. Look at the analysis that Fangs has done and it'll give you the best data-driven estimate for "time to upgrade". Spoiler: no one can guarantee a 'time to upgrade'.
AE Trend Analysis thread
04-11-2026 | 11:17 AM
#6483
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 5,519
Likes: 188
From: UNA
Yes. Most rumors floating around 1800-2000 hires for 2026- them finally realizing they need pilots to run an airline. Training is on fire right now. With steeper deliveries (especially WB’s as they cause much more movement) over the next few years plus retirements it’s not hard to imagine moving anywhere from 6-8% a year. 80% is the general NBA plug, so a 3-5 year upgrade is much more realistic depending on base/fleet.
3 years would be extremely optimistic and 5 would probably still be on the optimistic side IMO.
04-14-2026 | 05:59 AM
#6485
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 53
Likes: 4
Agreed. Been on property 3.5 years and 5 is optimistic even for 2023 hire.
04-14-2026 | 06:56 AM
#6487
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 53
Likes: 4
04-14-2026 | 07:23 AM
#6488
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 26
Likes: 1
Agreed. I was hired early 2024. 5.5 - 6 yr upgrade is expected. Less than 5 if we keep growing 2-3% per year. I’d say 7-8 yr updgrade for someone hired today.
04-14-2026 | 07:52 AM
#6489
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2021
Posts: 1,213
Likes: 305
Correct statement. If you follow the NBA plug(s), it went to some 2023 hires over 2 years ago, and hasn't left 2023 hires since. Back half of 2023 hires could still be a a year or two away.
04-14-2026 | 08:20 AM
#6490
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2023
Posts: 225
Likes: 62
however- with what they did to PB days and depending on gains/losses to QOL in the next contract all those numbers and estimates could be meaningless
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