Bingo! The optimizer amounts to a 1 or 2% change in system wide credit. We once did much of the RJ flying in-house with the DC9, 737-200 and even the 727. 4 legs was often the norm. The biggest difference from then to now is we get paid a lot more hours for similar trips. I have posted this before but when we had lots of trips like this there were complaints about the trip quality. The company said your welcome to try and do better. We tried for a few weeks and finally said never mind!
Another thing not mentioned that has also had a impact. Every time we get a contractual improvement it will effect rotation construction. As we attempt to drive the rotation construction to higher time trips and fewer days worked rotation quality will decrease. We once had decent 3 and 4 day trips but very short layovers. Often 9 hours from block in to block out. We demanded and got 8 hours behind the door and eventually the current rules. The company could no longer reliably schedule crews into out stations at night and back out in the morning. The result was 30 hour layovers. We hated the poor pay on trips with 30 hour layovers so we demanded and got a daily minimum. This forces the company to really have to pack the flying in around the long layovers or pay a severe credit penalty.

You came to the right conclusion for the wrong reasons. While some of the ‘reasons’ you cite contribute at the margins, the optimizer was already turning the screws back in 2019.

But the true root cause for why it will not get better is because Flight Ops leadership cannot allow more credit into the optimizer mix, or they will be fired.

Pilot staffing is THE limiting factor for the airline growing back and capturing revenue. The summer 2023 plan was recently planned by network to notably exceed 2019’s schedule. With the VEOP and 500 retirements a year, we would have to hire probably 1500 more pilots than we can possibly onboard, even at a record 200/month (and even then, they can’t train what they are hiring). Flight Ops said “no f-ing way” we can do that, so network is pushing them to pull out all the stops…

As a result, every pilot hired simply goes to increase the schedule, not for staffing relief. There won’t be relief until after summer of 2023, when hiring can finally start to allow a “pad” again. Network is pushing flight Ops to max-fly every single month, and if JL and gang ease off the gas, they will lose their jobs.

I don’t say any of this to make excuses for management. On the contrary, their I’ll-advised decisions got us here, and they refuse to even acknowledge it much less address it . But understanding where we are is key to understanding when it will (or won’t) get better. I’ll walk the picket line with fervor, but tactically it won’t change a dang thing. Strategically, however, we can be shaping the battlefield on multiple fronts.

As others have said, that is not what the duty pilot is for. You have to make a determination on fatigue. There's no "regional-esque" to it. Your expectation is one that doesn't make any sense other than it sounding like you were trying to make him make the decision so you could say he told you to in your report.

The disparity is because not extending was a fatigued call for the data before and now it is not.

So all of these complaints about the optimizer and the very tough schedules since it’s inception; unfortunately I haven’t followed what it is or the specifics of what it did. But based on its name, it’s obvious. Will there be any changes? Or is this a management tool that will make them happy and pilots miserable but with no recourse?

I’m sure it’s always worth it to leave the regionals for a legacy. How about a ULCC like Frontier/Spirit? I think it’s a no-brainer and am of the “first legacy to call” mindset. Am I wrong?

I think if you have 30 years left or have a strong desire for international flying, legacy flying is still the way to go. If you have less than 20 years to go and are already at an LCC, I don't really know if it's in your best interest to leave.

Less than 20, but also only been there for 6 months. Legacy wasn’t an option a year ago. Either way, it wouldn’t be a commute and would actually save me 40 minutes. I think reserves will get crushed at every airline this summer. Who knows if upgrades will stay at 4-5 years, especially if the merger is less than smooth. Currently stagnant because of attrition. And last but not least, flight benefits. I know they are virtually useless these days because of how flights are consistently oversold. But with 4 kids in college over the next 10 years, that could be big savings. Point to point benefits are so much less useful than hub and spoke.

Promising update from today MEC News:

"Section 11 (Training) and Section XX (LCP/SLI): After an extensive negotiation that commenced prior to the pandemic, these sections are now closed. The agreement contains industry-best training pay provisions with significant increases to qualification training pay, CQ pay, and distance learning pay, as well as improved pay protection for pilots awaiting training"

So not just SLIs/LCPs getting big increases but also big, industry best, training pay increases for line pilots.

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Saw that too. Sounds very encouraging.

“Industry-best” compared to a bunch of 5 to 6 year old contracts…big whoop. Enough with the wordy updates…get it done already so I can vote “no” on it.