Agree completely.

Early 2014 is probably the best timing in history. You could pull the trigger in 18 months or wait and move up 500 numbers a year. First world problems.

 

I think ER downsizing will come from top and bottom, as the 767s go and Europe/hawaii disappears

 

It's a huge stretch to say "30% more vacancies" with such a small sample size. That's kind of meaningless. "Percent to hold" is the only metric that works across time. And it's stable. WB A has been within 3% (up and down) of 23-24% over the last 13 AE's. Even the super-MOAB in Jan 2020 (right berfore Covid), the most junior WB A was... 24.1%. That's the norm.

Even with a handful of WB 'growth' positions for a few 330/350 deliveries, I don't see how we go from a pretty stable number to suddenly the bottom dropping out, doubling the greatest delta from average. (since the most senior 2010 hire will be around 5100, as you said, which will be very close to right at 30%). And certainly not in the next 5 months. The absolute most junior WB A has gotten in the last several years is ~27%.

Regardless, it's a psychological barrier, and nothing more.

My 2 Cents.

 

yep-in addition, the demographics may also add to WBA dropping outside of past norms. In other words, past performance does not guarantee future returns. Quite a few assumptions for entertainment value, but that’s what this site is partially for.
Generally speaking, the 07/08/10 folks have kids in middle/high school and have 20 years to retirement. Add in the great market returns, solid contract increases the past 10 years and relatively decent seniority (again with 20 years to go), knowing retirements are heavy the next 10 years combined with heavy WB aircraft adds the next few years, many in this group may wait a few years for a $75/hour pay increase especially as the trade is a commute and loss in massive seniority. Knowing they can bid WBA for 15 years versus 18, I see a much larger % deferring versus the 95-01 gang.

 

They really need to institute at least one MOAB per year to keep things interesting. Moved up 3. Better than going backwards!

 

it’s a total head scratcher to me how you can keep pointing towards historical norms, when we are continuously marching towards new norms. Jan 2020 we had about 95 big widebodies. As of July we have 121 with 45 firm orders.

It’s not an outlier that Widebody A went to 27% last winter and it won’t be an outlier when it goes to 29/30% this winter. And the first 2014s will be under 30.5% by Feb 1.

 

I think it’s 50% pay, 25% QOL, 25% SJS that drives the WBA bid. That 4000 number barrier is a pretty solid WAG for holding. As the ERs retire, some people will bid over because they can’t hold Europe any more or because the Europe left becomes dirty Europe trips (half domestic/half Europe). This holds for senior ERAs and senior ERBs. Same holds true for LA and Hawaii; it already happened as the 32N took over and all the senior ERA Hawaii/Japan pilots said enough and just left for the 350A/330A.

WBA will trickle over in 2000/2001 seniority, and then right as the 2007s/2008s start to hold, the 339/351 deliveries are going to roll on and WBA quickly runs to 2014 hire. Wall gets a few rock chips in 2025, it falls end of 2026, early 2027. And it will be a massive rush through the gates. 5000 WBA seniority in 2027.

*stay away black swans, Putins, Taiwans, Irans

 

I definitely agree that many of the younger 07/08/10s could wait. The changing demographics will definitely play a factor. I know I myself will choose to go in closer to 2000 than to 5000 when my time comes.

 

There are only 100 out of 1000 in that hiring range with 20 years left. The median age of that group is 50, so 15 years remaining is the midpoint. When you include the 2000 and 2001 hires that are also in that same seniority range, the median moves to 51.

Did you mean $175/hr? How does WBA equate to trading for a commute?

I think you will be surprised to see how much the ranks begin filling in under the 4,500 seniority range on the next several AEs.

 

When you look at the relative seniority disparity between plug WBA and most NBA or WBB, it’s hard to justify the leap unless your life is incomplete without being a WBA. It’s a monumental QOL difference and not much different $ if you want to work the system.

I can’t believe it doesn’t go more junior than it does. I think pilot groups are still kinda stuck in the pension era bidding mentality with the top pay and “golden ring” being WBA.