Horizon is Alaska's homegrown feeder and Skywest is their subcontracted feeder.

 

Feel free to correct me or adjust to your circumstances, I've been doing some math (Warning! M.I.P.)

I am a 5th year MD-88 FO.

IF I agree to this TA, (or it passes without my agreement) I am trying to envision the worst - relative to current contract - case and how badly I might regret it with regards to future income.

(Worst case in reality, of course, is I get furloughed, but since this agreement would make that slightly less likely the RELATIVE impact would be that I would have been better off with this agreement in the event furloughs loom and if I get the axe anyway I would have made a few dollars more, so that's not relatively worse.)

Worst case (relatively), I would get MD'd from MD88B to the new 717B category giving up the 4% raise in the process. So then I'm getting 8/3/3 instead of 0/0/0, but the company will then make (worst relative case) $2.5B and I've just signed away 1/3 of my share of that (BOE math: last year's $1B was 5% of pay, so 2.5x would have been 12.5%, but is now 8.3, thus I've given up over one half of my 8% raise, so I'm at 3.8/3/3 (BEFORE inflation)

Then add in the extra 1% DC contribution in 2014, so my 2015 lookback non-inflation adjusted pay rate would have been increased by (0)/3.8/4/3

Higher ALV/TLV for line-holders (in addition to extra work required) will add about 1% to annual pay (77.5 ALV vs. 76.5). Higher reserve guarantee (in addition to extra days on LC and SC) will add about 7% (my guesstimate)

That's also not adjusted for the new 4+30 daily minimum on non-productive days (unknown how many affected pairings will remain in bid packages), someone mentioned that the true impact wouldn't be on pay but on possibly extra days off, or offsetting of extra day on required by higher ALV.

If we don't vote it in, we get 0/0/0 but keep the 12.5% profit-sharing next year (when company is predicted to make 2.5B, per wall street analysts). Or 0% if we make nothing, of course.

Am I missing anything pay-related? If not, the above math makes me a no vote, and I'll be looking for employment elsewhere with better chances of advancement.
(This post is intentionally scope-ignorant)

 

b

Using your logic, if the 717's are coming anyway, then we get well above the trigger for 3-1 exchange for 76 seat RJ's. Management would be able to go all the way up to 255 76 seaters. The contracts for the 70 seaters begin expiring in 2014 and are essentially ended in 2019. This deal allows them to retain 70 CRJ-700 that they'd have to park, and add 76 seaters early. The number of permitted 76 seaters goes down from 255 to 223. At the same time those 76/70 seaters get management out of contracts for 186 50 seaters by the end of 2015.

Management has three choices as I see it:

1. Do this deal. Also do a deal with the DCI companies. Save 50 seat RJ costs (contract and maintenance) and improve revenue by swapping 76/70 seaters for 50 seaters, Upgauge mainline to backfill DCI seating cuts shifiting block hours from a ratio of about 1.2 mainline -DCI to 1.75 mainline-DCI.

2. Don't do the deal. Spend money on 50 seat engine maintenance and fly the aircraft they are financially committed to.

3. Dont do the deal. Don't spend money on 50 seat maintenance and park the aircraft, paying the a/c financing and contractual penalties to DCI carriers that they are committed to.

They'll do a math problem. They've already done choice 3 on some Comair aircraft.

Small narrowbodies have to come if they get 76 seaters. DCI has to shrink if they get 76 seaters. Block hour ratios protect us on the downside if they get 76 seaters. No more we shrink/stagnate, DCI growing circumstances.

 

Where and how is that flying covered in our contract? Can DAL transfer/sell those 50 seaters to Skywest or Horizontal and then subcontract that out via AS codeshare? I have not been able to find any information on the AS flying other than that definition page. Anybody got any reference? This kind of seems that we are dependent on AS's scope to protect us against that.

 

Slow- care to address the exemption on page 1-7, lines 1-3 (note 2)?

 

T;
Honestly, I dont know the AK scope clause, but recall that it is fairly weak and open ended.

There is some current wrangling going on between Horizon and Skywest over flying the Q400.

 

When does the block hour ratio snapshot occur? I know the answer, I want to see if you will answer it publicly.

 

Ya'll need to let this go. This is boilerplate contract language. It is enforceable whether or not it is included in ANY contract. Act of God type stuff...

 

I fixed #2 for you. This is where our leverage exists. Again, sins of omition from an ALPA guy. Never seen that before

 

It occurs with the delivery of each 76 seat jet, ranging from a base of 1.10 with no deliveries to 1.56 with 70 deliveries.