Airline Pilot Central Forums - Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by alfaromeo (Post 1196248)

Math Problem for the Day (I hope newk has recovered from his analysis of the staffing formula)

Delta currently flies about 3,600,000 domestic block hours per year (combined mainline + DCI).

Our current share of those block hours is 53.9%
Under the TA, if Delta purchases the extra 70 76 seat jets the minimum share of our block hours rises to 60.9%. Calculate the difference between our current share and our minimum new share.
Divide that difference by 12 to get the monthly block hours.
Multiply that number by 2 because we have two pilots per domestic cockpit.
Divide by 60 whcih is what our block hours per pilot will be in the future.
Tell me how many additional pilot jobs at mainline that this creates
Now contemplate that with a hard cap on DCI fleet, where does all additonal system capacity growth have to go after that.

Mr. JungleBus claims that they can buy the 76 seaters and then dump mainline aircraft. How can they do that and still increase the mainline share of block hours? That is why there is the ratio built in, and it is a very powerful ratio that you will never see again under a new negotiation. Management felt like we took their children when this was negotiated. Block hours are the core of pilot jobs, the number of aircraft required to create those block hours are basically fixed by the average daily ute rate of aircraft.

Bonus question: Under Delta's business plan our share of block hours will rise to 64% (remember DCI fleet is capped). Redo the above calculations and tell me how many jobs that creates at mainline.

PICK ME! PICK ME! I'm back after family night and falling asleep on my daughters floor again.

So I have my answer after doing your math question, but I have a question that changes every calculation.

What will the total block hours be after we transition to 100 new 739s, 88 new 717s, 125 50 seaters and 325 large regional jets?

Seems as if everything is no neutral here. We add 100 739s but they're all replacement jets. We add 100 717s but the ASMs are supposed to stay the same.

So best guess? Because I have a table that's pretty darn wide.

Now if every 739 and 717 was growth and we only parked the DC-9s and the 763s but nothing else (as in the 739 wasn't all that much of a replacement jet) we'd be rolling in hiring over a period of a couple of years beginning 2013 or 2014.

As long as this TA doesn't kill the staffing requirement. But our block hours would have to increase all things being equal.

But if the block hours have to remain neutral at 3.6M then we have to reduce the mainline fleet.

I say that we take that hit given the age of our jets compared to the age of those RJs all sitting on long term leases. And given that the CRJ-900 CASM is mainline like or better, it seems they wouldn't park those things.

We would still need pilots to do that though.

But this is the kicker. If they decide to drop down to that 1.56 ratio (and Lord forbid ever be granted relief on it) with a neutral 3.6M hours and RJ hours remaining unchanged, we'd be stuck in neutral on hiring at best.

So it depends on where that total block hours is in years to come.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1196833)

Here it is:

1. Stop giving away MORE of our flying
2. Vote this TA down
3. Negotiate all NEW over 50 seat RJ's to be operated at Delta (even if it means some pilots will think they're on a B scale).
4. Understand that any alleged lease forgiveness of 50 seat RJ's based on buying new larger RJ's would not care who operated the aircraft...only that they are bought.
5. Wait until 2025 when the last older RJ burns its last Jet A.
6. Mainline flying fully recaptured.

But pay particular note of step 1 and 2.

Carl

Awesome Carl. Now execute it. I'm serious. I want to see it happen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnso29 (Post 1196834)

I honestly don't know either newK. But it gets tiresome hearing guys scream SCOPE RECAPTURE and then hear SILENCE when asked how. Maybe we just need you to walk in and get it done!! :D

I might just have to go in and do that. :D

Believe it or not, I offered up a suggestion a long time ago.... NEVERMIND. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1196838)

Why did you remove "not one more seat, not one more pound" from your avatar?

Carl

Carl, the current TA doesn't give one more seat or one more pound. It reduces seats and pounds.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnso29 (Post 1196840)

Awesome Carl. Now execute it. I'm serious. I want to see it happen.

I intend to. Right after I do my part in step 2.

Carl

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1196843)

I intend to. Right after I do my part in step 2.

Carl

Fantastic. I will seriously back you. I am sincere, and I am not being sarcastic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnso29 (Post 1196842)

Carl, the current TA doesn't give one more seat or one more pound. It reduces seats and pounds.

The TA will outsource over 30,000 more seats than our current scope. The ONLY case you can make to say this TA reduces seats is if you assume RA was lying when he said the 50 seat RJ's burn far too much fuel, and the passengers overwhelmingly disapprove of them.

Carl

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1196833)

Here it is:

1. Stop giving away MORE of our flying

I completely agree with you. The Block Hour Ratios significantly shift flying back to mainline.

Quote:

2. Vote this TA down

I think I see where you're going here. Let's show how tough we are! . . . Then what?

Quote:

3. Negotiate all NEW over 50 seat RJ's to be operated at Delta (even if it means some pilots will think they're on a B scale).

With what leverage? Our current scope is SO weak that Delta can operate UNLIMITED 50 seaters off our list and there is nothing we can do about it. The TA sets a hard cap of 125 50 seaters by the end of the agreement.

Quote:

4. Understand that any alleged lease forgiveness of 50 seat RJ's based on buying new larger RJ's would not care who operated the aircraft...only that they are bought.

Not true. Why would Skywest, ASA/ExpressJet, etc just let Delta pull the rug out from under them? It is the regional carriers that Delta has signed these long term deals with. Delta has to convince them somehow to let them out of their 50 seater contracts. What's their carrot?

Quote:

5. Wait until 2025 when the last older RJ burns its last Jet A.

We have nothing in our current scope section to keep them from renewing RJ leases as time goes on. 2025 will just keep getting pushed down the road.

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6. Mainline flying fully recaptured.

See my response to your #1. We have an option to shift flying back to mainline. It's not a full recapture, but it brings a whole lotta flying back to mainline, and more importantly establishes a HARD FLOOR for how much of our work Delta can outsource - something we've never had before.

Quote:

Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1196839)

Seems as if everything is no neutral here. We add 100 739s but they're all replacement jets. We add 100 717s but the ASMs are supposed to stay the same.

So best guess? Because I have a table that's pretty darn wide.

But if the block hours have to remain neutral at 3.6M then we have to reduce the mainline fleet.

I'm tearing up.....beauty Clark.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1196850)

No it won't Carl. Do your math again.