Airline Pilot Central Forums - Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?

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I propose a one underboob shot per page minimum.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAAC ATP (Post 1245839)

On a slightly different topic... I am always pondering, and who isn't, career progression based upon future attrition and growth. I would say the majority of captains I fly with think a junior pilot on the Delta Seniority List will have a fairly fruitful career. I agree with this statement so long as we remain the status quo. The industry is just too dynamic for that to happen which brings me to question a few items.

The contract granted the company a smaller pilot group through gained efficiencies and early retirements. This has probably delayed the requirement to hire pilots for a short period of time. With this new contract and future known retirements, I would think the company could easily predict and peg a date for when hiring must begin and yet they haven't. Why is this? The only scenario I can think of is the company is in the midst of further consolidation and therefore the staffing needs are completely unknown. Depending on the outcome of consolidation, the immediate need for pilots will be buffered, eliminated, or worse, reduced. ie. merging or acquiring a junior vs. senior pilot group. I'm wondering how the APCer's see these different consolidation scenarios unfolding and the impact on the bottom pilots of Delta's seniority list.

Sailingfun is correct on the numbers, but does not tell the whole story.

To sum up your question, you are asking; "Where is the bottom? When do things turn around? When do we hire?" The answer seems to be, "who knows."

Consolidation is a going to continue according to Delta's senior management. On our own, we see "Capacity reductions (as) leverage" to increase prices and make greater profits.

Management is not talking about merger scenarios, but if something like that should happen I'd expect a 40 to 60% reduction in whatever we acquire, or if we get acquired, out of our network. Northwest / Delta was about as painless a merger as could be achieved, yet we are still, what, a 25% smaller airline than our post bankruptcy footprint, which itself is reduced from our peak.

As Sailingfun points out, we are going to see a bump from 717 flying, as we recover some of what had been outsourced. But, aside from the approximately 400 Captains that will get back to their DC9 equivalent seat, there is not a lot of upward movement. Not that I'm complaining, the unity created by doing our own flying is important also.

My projections all had 2013 as the post merger turn around. Five years for some of us to get back to "status quo." That is not going to happen. Still, we have a lot of good things on the horizon:

Atlanta terminal F finished
JFK Terminal Expansion coming on line
Up gauged LGA flying
Perhaps an increase in Pacific flying
Aircraft coming out of mod lines
and slightly closer to the date the effective measurement period of the AF/KLM JV
717 / 737-900 arrivals

But, some other indicators I watch are showing a slow down in the US economy this fall and the network / marketing people who make these decisions for Delta have not said anything positive recently.

So ... who knows? Management seems very happy to run Delta with a smaller footprint, especially if they can extract more revenue from it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1245842)

The company has provided many statements about hiring. Short term hiring this winter is predicated on the block hour plan which marketing has yet to release to flight ops. Once it is out then a decision to hire now or next year will be made. Once hiring starts flight ops expects it to continue long term.
Your thoughts on the contract are incorrect. We are shifting almost 1000 pilot jobs from DCI back to the mainline. The work rule changes will cost us somewhere in the around 125 to 150 jobs total. The give backs cost us 300 to 340 jobs but improvements in other areas picked up about 200 jobs. The early retirement program looks like it will come in around 230 pilots. The good news on the ER program is that it looks like it will be far more effective then DALPA thought. They had planned on 250 to 300 however thought most would be the 63 to 65 year old pilots. Those guys are staying and the majority of pilots leaving are 59 to 61 which is much better for the pilot group.
Hiring will come but its dependent on the block hour plan which falls back on the economy.

I remember in 2009 when we started to hire. Everyone said the same thing. 200 new hires later, we stopped hiring.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Check Essential (Post 1245868)

Wow. First time I've heard that one. Sounds a bit high.

I'll only believe it if alfaromeo puts it in a bar graph.

We are taking delivery of 88 100 seat aircraft to replace DCI flying. Delta staffs narrow body aircraft at 12 to 13 pilots per aircraft.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1245879)

We are taking delivery of 88 100 seat aircraft to replace DCI flying. Delta staffs narrow body aircraft at 12 to 13 pilots per aircraft.

So you believe we will be growing consolidated seating capacity?

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1245879)

We are taking delivery of 88 100 seat aircraft to replace DCI flying. Delta staffs narrow body aircraft at 12 to 13 pilots per aircraft.

How many are guaranteed to be guaranteed growth? Can we make staffing projections without the actual fleet plan or contractual guarantees?

Quote:

Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1245883)

That requires growth. Do you believe we will be growing seating capacity?

Well we are starting to see the bottom WRT to increasing PRASM through capacity reduction. IOW, shrinking to profitability isn't working anymore. Taking that into consideration it will be interesting to see how RA and the gang respond to the LCCs refusal to join in on the latest fare increases.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bucking Bar (Post 1245875)

My projections all had 2013 as the post merger turn around. Five years for some of us to get back to "status quo." That is not going to happen. Still, we have a lot of good things on the horizon:

Atlanta terminal F finished
JFK Terminal Expansion coming on line
Up gauged LGA flying
Perhaps an increase in Pacific flying
Aircraft coming out of mod lines
and slightly closer to the date the effective measurement period of the AF/KLM JV
717 / 737-900 arrivals

Bar;

Super post. I also thought 2013 would be the turn around. Time will tell, but frankly, I'm pretty sure the macro economy is not ready.

Angela Merkle, Cover Girl

http://media.economist.com/sites/def...811_cna400.jpg

Frankly, it makes sense. There is no good reason a profligate Greek should enjoy a thrifty German's credit.

IMHO, this will be good for Delta. Call it "the economic disaster tourism market."

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAAC ATP (Post 1245839)

...With this new contract and future known retirements, I would think the company could easily predict and peg a date for when hiring must begin and yet they haven't. Why is this?...

FWIW: A buddy of mine looking to get hired talked with one of our hiring department (LAX73A) members at the OBAP Conference. She said to expect hiring in the spring and that initially the 717 would staff at 9 crews per jet (sounds like a lot since current domestic is around 6(?)). But we are still waiting for Network's block hour plan...

Every six months or so I get something to look forward to, only to see it turn into burning embers...