I was told that hiring would be late next year (from someone that would know). They have been pushing it back for 2 years, so I'd take that info with a grain of salt, but it gave me a little glimmer of hope for some movement

 

So what's the reason/pilot count/length of furlough rumors to coincide with that? Its always been about a 2 year ROI for a furlough, and at least 500-1000 to make it worth their while to even consider.

Now with the Compass flow and a few additional layered, non force majeureable things in the contract, I'd think the ROI timetable would be pushed even farther out and deeper down the list.

For that rumor to have even theoretical traction, it would have to spell out how many, how long and why. In addition to whatever the number, you would also have to add several hundred mandatory and "early" retirements.

While I think any hopes for a real economic "recovery" are absolutely laughable, and things will get worse for quite a while before they get better (not including brief periods of fake bubblenomics) I'm curious as to the rationale for this particular rumor.

No doubt that it is. But even a best seller needs a nice jacket with blurbs and teasers. Since you've read it can you give us the quick half page summary?

How the significant JV imbalance plays out will be very interesting to watch. IMO we gave away way, way too much in exchange for our share of a theoretical high water mark 2% AZ flying. Now the whole pie is way smaller than that and when it comes time to rebalance we'll get 49.75% (and not a penny more) of the new block hour low after suffering the full three years out of balance with no floor.

WTH were we thinking on that one anyway?

 

Common sense would say, if they don't hire at least 1100 by the end of 2015 they will be canceling a lot of flights

 

Without pulling it up and re-reading it, I think it is 4 or 5 ER's worth of flying that need to be brought into balance. The gap has been closing, in our favor, as Air France has been pulling down.

Overall, I like the production balance concept. It is a difficult nut to crack ... allowing flexibility while protecting jobs. My pure guess is that with the mod lines going on, we did not have the metal to instantly balance with Alitalia coming on board. But, since we gained overall, it was seen as a "win."

I would not mind Virgin, as long as it got thrown into the AF/KLM/AZ side of the pie (which makes the most sense after all). My radar gain is up for a percentage renegotiation ... but so far, no returns.

 

Common sense would also dictate that there is something under RA's sleeve; He is way too "cool" and "relaxed" considering that this BIG LOOMING PILOT SHORTAGE is about to strike us

TEN

 

... beats me, not "my" rumor. I've been dumping water on it for all the reasons you mention, plus the fact that we are actually flying a bit more international block hours recently.

 

No kidding. Tanstaafl is going to become the "great communicator" - it will be fun holding him to the standard to which he has performed from the sidelines...

 

Looking at American's TA, Delta is not going to participate in a pilot shortage. Neither is FedEx, UPS, or Southwest.

Delta is surely on just about every professional pilot's "short list of places I wish I worked" right now.

 

The best applicants will become few and far between, Delta will miss out if it waits to long to hire.

 

What's a "best applicant"?