A couple of things, you're talking airframes growth, they're talking capacity right? And you’re saying 3-4 years, looks like some of these delivery schedules go out six years to 2018, right? And you’re saying the next AE will be indicative of the next six years while right now we’ll be adding new 717 categories while the DC9 category that the 717s will replace will still be open for the interim, right?

I don't know if I see things as rosy as you might.

Start with the notion we'd have to replace 225 airplanes for me to be right. Well, let's first look at the fleet:

http://i938.photobucket.com/albums/a...d/temp6-13.jpg

So they said the 739 was a 1;1 replacement of 757s, 763s and 320s and that it'd be done over the next six years (if I had the delivery schedule right). I find that plausible. So that's 100 of the 225 additions.

Now look at the 88s, they'll be almost as old at the end of this decade as some of the DC95s are now. Will they stick around or will the 717 + MD90 replace them?

Anyways, grab a bag, throw the 739, 717 and MD90 into it. Take out a portion of the 757s, all of the 763s, all of the 9s and think about those MD88s, hell, blame it on Nextgen and Bucking Bar let's get grid of them all. Take into account DCI@450 where yes the fleet dropped 25% but the capacity only dropped 16% and maybe even less with more efficient and faster jets capable of better utilization.

You could get a flat to a 1.5% yoy decrease in capacity with that, near flat mainline growth, and still maintain the 1.56 ratio the entire way.

Seems plausible to me, continues our current shrinking trajectory. But let's just say it's too much, weren't there rumors of picking up some more 717s? Do a 20-30 more of those things and you have a flat capacity.

But you do have more mainline airframes. 30-40 in that scenario. Which if we multiply that by the 10.1 pilot ratio we're running on the 88 we'd end up with 300-400 more pilots? If we did 80 airplanes like the filing said and get to 797 total (i.e. 4% larger than we were 4 years ago) it's 800 more pilots?

Minus the more productive pilot efficiencies and we'd need to be hiring 3-7 pilots a month over the next six years. But we do have a contract in the middle of that and given our current trends in productivity, paying for our own jets and increasing jumbo RJs, who knows.

I'll be happy if in 2018 we still require 11,800 pilots.

BTW, 1.56 ratio has to go. A 1.80 ratio would be nice, guaranteed growth of around 100 mainline jets at a minimum unless DCI is shrunk below 450. That'd be nice.

It'd also create capacity growth which I know is a no no. So I'll shelve that idea for now, but, there is a demand for C2015.

Rome wasn't burnt in a day.
Give management and ALPA time to do a bit more outsourcing.
The Virgin Atlantic surrender isn't complete yet.

The seniority list at SLI had 12434 names.
Today it has 11784.
That's 650 pilots. Gone. So far.

I kinda thought my use of 1000 was a bit of hyperbole, but if they don't hire this year or next, we just might hit that 1000.

"Direct to East One."

"@#%!@. I wouldn't be going to EAST ONE IF I WAS ABLE TO FLY DIRECT TO STUFF!"

I don't blame them, I mean it's just what they're used to. But man.

BTW, is the SPA VOR like a mess or something? We ended up having to fly visually to GSP and that made the controller happy, all of the VORs the rest of the way up the east coast were spot on.

I have a question, April 1 we had 562 mainline jets and Jan 1 2013 we have 565. 3 jets.

You often claim we got more Captains in this past AE, things are great, but does that take into account the RMA and that those who retire are more often than not Captains? I mean why just focus on Captains? In good times shouldn't we be adding both Captains and FOs?

I mean I'm looking at a category list from around the contract of last year to what they project in May of this year. We gained around 49 Captains(not counting the 9 for this example since it wasn't open when I took this snapshot).

We gained 49 Captains! But we lost 20 in the 777 but gained 9 in the lower paying 330/765 and gained 14 more in the lower paying 7ER. Lost 70 on the 767 but gain on the 737. Lose 9 on the 320 but gain 34 on the 88... which might be increasing because it's only a 5 day course from the 88 to the 717.

I see a trend. Sure it's 49+ new Captains, but, 34 of it on the 88 seems like it just might be for displacement purposes. I don't know, I'm sure you have some inside info on what is the net gain to come for As but I'll want to see from where these new Captains will come from.

FTB, until the lie flat mods are done we won't see any backfilling into the larger aircraft. I have a friend who's a 777 A and he flew 2 trips last year. We are over staffed in wide body captain positions, just look at the reserve availability from the ER on up. Hiring is not going to happen until the Mil leave guys come back, and the recalls are done. We had pver 800 pilots on Mil leave and furlough just 4 years ago. They are all senior to the 2008 and later hires. It's just a fact.

I'm not going to bow down and say "he's my hero," some might. For those of us who fly the thing regularly, you always feel rusty. It takes 4 guys to push it off the gate. This guy needs to get some trips bought for him.

W-2s
 

W-2s are available but the Self Service part of DeltaNet is stalling so you can't get to them. Tech knows and has been working it for the last couple of hours.

I have no fancy graphs or hard numbers, but I'll just remind everyone that in a merger 1 + 1 does NOT = 3..........it equals 1.5.

Due to some contract language, but IMHO, due to not wanting this place to look like USAir, RA and the boys have carried a lot more pilots on the books than are necessary. If we would have furloughed, the last few years would have been a train wreck around here. But, we've gotten the chance to fly together, get to know each other and become one group.

I agree with FTB that this contract requires even fewer guys that the old contract, but I take our stagnation back farther than that. I guess in my mind, the question STILL remains, what would you be doing if we hadn't merged?

Ferd

I'm going to have to start looking those MELs up in the orange book--we lose autobrakes and a fuel pump if the potable water isn't working? :D