Originally Posted by HBdude (Post 1357860)

To add to the used 744 discussion - a LCA from my base said he spoke with a Boeing employee in the back while DH'ing about 7-8 months ago, who said it was his job to look for used 744's for Delta. Didn't give it much thought at the time. But it may help add something to the discussion now.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1357877)

Delta has there own internal used aircraft group. They monitor virtually every airliner for sale world wide. That is how now and then we pick up the odd 757 or 767. If the question is are we looking at xxx aircraft that might be for sale the answer is always yes because they monitor everything that is on the market. If they see something that interests them they will often travel for a inspection even though it rarely leads to a purchase. This often starts rumors when it's mentioned they are traveling to inspect aircraft.

Originally Posted by Ferd149 (Post 1357868)

I can't imagine the CASM is as good as a 777. If this happens, I'll be wrong AGAIN......I figured the days of the 4 engine airliner were done. The logistics train on a 4 engine jet have to be huge. But, if you get them cheep enough up front I can see how it works out.

Plus, the added bonus is T finally gets to fly his Whale.........he won't tell ya but that's what he really wants to do:D

Originally Posted by newKnow (Post 1349586)

If the company wanted the early retirement package because we are overstaffed, why did they also want the productivity increases that required fewer pilots?

My guess is that they wanted it to smooth out training bumps down the line.

Wait!

I thought we were told the early retirement package was something that was good for us anyway. Now, it comes out that it was something that the company wanted? I think someone pointed that out last year. :rolleyes:

Boy. We sure did fall for it (again). :D

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1357867)

The 747 if used on a daily 10 hour round trip flight burns in excess of 20 million dollars a year more fuel then the 777 300. The question becomes how much additional revenue can the 747 generate.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1357867)

The 747 if used on a daily 10 hour round trip flight burns in excess of 20 million dollars a year more fuel then the 777 300. The question becomes how much additional revenue can the 747 generate.

Edit: A forum reader just emailed me and stated the number is closer to 30 million a year at 3.50 a gallon for fuel.

Originally Posted by Wilbur Wright (Post 1357650)

Correct. The fences come down for the AE after December 31, 2014.

Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1357643)

You know we get knocked around here for rumors, but there is nothing wrong with rumors. I don't think rumors originate out of thin air most of the time but rather we hear them because former line pilots and friends of pilots working on/investigating a project have loose lips. But that doesn't mean the project isn't real. It might not get approved, but it may have been studied all the way down to seeing the plausibility with it in different departments.

So would Delta acquire a bunch of used 747-400s?

1) I hope so.

2) Carl's source said Delta wants 773s. Boeing's price is too high? What is Boeing's current price?

• B772LR $291.2M B777 prices
• B773ER $315.0M B777 prices
• B777F $295.7M B777 prices
• B748I $351.4M B747 prices
• B748F $352.0M B747 prices
• Actual 772LR price paid by Delta B772 N701DN

3) Would we really want the 773?

• RA this past week in Seattle in an interview with the Puget Sound Business Journal made this comment about the 739, could the same thought process apply to 773 as well?
  
• Well, it doesn't look like we want the 748:

4) Carl's source says Boeing would not budge. Why would Boeing not want to budge?

• The 773 is popular, 15 hours ago LH ordered 20 more Lufthansa Set To Buy Six Boeing 777-300ERs For Swiss
• On 01FEB American upped their order from 15 773s to 20: American ups 777-300ER backlog to 20, CEO says
• Boeing to boost production to help cut wait of more than three years to deliver new 777: Boeing Says 777 Backlog Damps Sales as Airlines Shun Wait - Bloomberg
• Boeing's order books:

5) Carl's source says Boeing has 11 747-400s on the used car lot with low miles and previously owned by non-smokers who only drove them on the highway if ever. Are there used 744s out there?

• There are 10 744s listed on Boeing.com Boeing.com Used 744 Lot
• Globalplanesearch.com has (to the best of my counting ability and after removing all of the 744Fs and BCF models) 36 744-400 passenger jets for sale of which 22 are what Delta would refer to as "they are young" jets and are less than 20 years of age. APCF crowd would refer to them as "of legal age".Other 744s for sale.
• Globalplanesearch.com lists a 93 model for $18M, 92 for $20M, 92 for $26M and 97 for $23M. Other 744s for sale.
• Planespotters.net lists that there are about 20 744s (as best I can count) stored, not written off, that are under 20 years of age: 744 Stored
• Who knows where these planes are coming from or from what airline or whether there are customers willing to trade in 744s for those 748s Boeing is desperate to sell. Boeing warns about unclaimed 747-8 production slots

6) Would Boeing really give us barely used 744s for half the price of a 773?

• Another view of previous article, possibly Boeing needs to move used 744s off the used market to point customers towards new 748s:Boeing warns about unclaimed 747-8 production slots
• Delta isn't doing Boeing many favors by suing the U.S. Export-Import bank over subsidies that benefit Boeing. Delta Air Lines sues U.S. Export-Import Bank over subsidies | Reuters
• Delta is in the process of evaluating whether to acquire more 737s or A320s (not Max or NEO versions) and having either OEM take 50-seaters off its hands in the process. Could a 744 deal be a part of the package? Delta Said to Talk With Airbus, Boeing on Jet Purchase - Bloomberg
• Was the original 739 order a part of a package deal with the 717s, Boeing and SWA? August 2011: Delta to order 100 737-900s, delays order for 100 other small narrowbody aircraft. Followed by: May 2012: Delta to acquire entire AirTran 717 fleet

7) Would Delta do it?

• Richard Anderson 01/22/2013
  
• Was there another reason RA was in Seattle this past week and now we get this tidbit from Carl?
  

So with all of that said and referenced, I ask, DALAD, are you buying or selling what Carl heard?

I am buying and going long.

Standby for input from people who actually know what they're talking about. :D

Originally Posted by scambo1 (Post 1357885)

Ferd;

There are trip segments where a greater than 2 engine jet make better sense. For example - in the airway manual, Iran and Afghanistan are "don't land here unless you are on fire" countries. So, on a light twin, you lose a motor and you could be trucking 7-800 miles on the other engine. Rare yes, possible yes. Africa - I don't know if they still use the "for training purposes only" handout, but all those Air France destinations in western africa used to be off limits to us for diverting (theoretically). IMO, economics isn't the only consideration. Application of etops is important too.

Also, the stations where we cube and or gross out on cargo and leave pax behind are potential 747 stations. Can you imagine being able to easily non-rev in and out of argentina? or greece? or turkey? (do we even fly there anymore?

747s are used all over the world. I can't imagine a huge logistics chain requirement for a jet that so many carriers operate.

Economics are a huge consideration, but not the only one.

Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1357887)

What $/gal is your 20 million based on. It would also be helpful to know what kind of fuel lbs difference per 10 hour segment there is between the two.

The 747 can carry an extra 100 pax per 10 hour segment or 200 per day on some of our more expensive tickets. It's possible that it could make up a good bit of the 20 mil difference.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1357902)

I stated that you have to look at how much more revenue the 747 can generate. Based on 80,000lbs per leg more fuel burn the cost is almost 30 million at 3.50 a gallon. Again the revenue generation is the question. The 747 can carry a lot more in the middle stage lenghts however in the ULH operations that margin goes away.
The other consideration is the difference in maintenance costs between a 4 engine 10 to 20 year old jet and a brand new 2 engine jet. They are substantial. There is a reason that 747 400 are being scraped. Here is article from last June. Note that the newest 400's at 10 years old were selling for 36 million in June and many are being broken up for scrap.

Boeing 747-400 Prices Tumble as Fuel Costs End 23-Year Reign - Bloomberg