Originally Posted by daldude (Post 1368876)

I for example was with a Capt the other day who asked why I had not bid Capt on the 88 after being here for 13 years. I then explained that I was still in the bottom 17% of the list and had approximately 11 years to go until I would break into the top 50% of the list. He actually did not believe me until......

Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1368937)

I think what they've done is just keep it simple, open the 717, drain the 9 and base wide (ATL/DTW/MSP) force folks down to the 717 and just do it all at once.

To try and keep the 9 open for Summer 2014 is risky. Not to mention by the Summer of 2014 given the number of 717s and 9s, you'd need to hire. They can probably cover the capacity loss just fine. So why risk it? Just get rid of the 9 in early 2014.

Which makes no hiring until 2015 seem so much more plausible. Not to mention isn't that a contract year?

Originally Posted by SailorJerry (Post 1368847)

Winners are expensive.

Originally Posted by APCLurker (Post 1368957)

I think there are quite a few that do not realize this, especially when rocketship is used to describe advancement. Only 578 age-65 retirements until 2017 (end of '17?)

Originally Posted by Bucking Bar (Post 1368950)

Great graphic

Originally Posted by Bucking Bar (Post 1368946)

Fig,

What blows my mind is not W2, but take home pay. My cash flow is within $600 per pay period of what I earned in 1988 (while still in college). The mid month check as a commuter turboprop captain remains larger than it's Delta equivalent, ten years later. Of course the end of the month check is significantly larger at Delta, offset by the cost of benefits and taxes which are larger during the mid month period.

Don't know if the regional LCA still make what they used to earn, but under the Delta contract post bankruptcy and theirs, a regional LCA out earned his equivalent at Delta by $20K to as much as $100K if they really hustled.

Useless information ... but interesting just for it's lack of volatility in a very volatile industry.

Originally Posted by APCLurker (Post 1368967)

shortened quote




Agree as well.

Regarding being a contract year by then: it would not suprise me in the least to see these "rumored" 321's or 744's or any other plane de jour "magically" appearing around the same contract time, making your posted picture even that much more appropriate. Unfortunately, history does not appear to be a teacher to many in the airline industry so the result will be the same.

Originally Posted by daldude (Post 1368876)

Sailing,

I think most of the Jr FO's understand what you are saying, I think this board is a just a place to vent. I think there is a fair amount of frustration, because while nobody is looking for sympathy I feel that most Capt's and senior pilots have no clue as to what our career prospects have turned into. I for example was with a Capt the other day who asked why I had not bid Capt on the 88 after being here for 13 years. I then explained that I was still in the bottom 17% of the list and had approximately 11 years to go until I would break into the top 50% of the list. He actually did not believe me until I showed him that we only have 578 retirements between now and 2017. He then proceeded to tell me he could not relate and that he did not know how he could have sent his kids to college if he had not up graded in 11 years. My daughter starts the University of Texas next fall I was actually depressed after that portion of the conversation.

In fact you pointed out in a earlier post that you had a pretty slow (non rocket ship) up grade to Capt at 13 years. With 2001 hires looking at 23 years I actually thought 13 years was pretty good where you thought it was pretty fair at best. You pointed out you were and SO for 5 years, I was furloughed for 6 years. I actually thought having a job as an SO for 5 years looked pretty good where you thought is was not so good. Different perspectives.

But I think the biggest difference in the us and the (Cattle Barron's)(just a joke) is that in the past Delta pilots were jr for a relatively short period in their careers. You for example where jr as and SO for 5 years but then you moved up to senior FO then Capt by 13 years. Where as my generation will still be in the bottom 20% of the seniority list after 17 years. So the whole "I was jr once comparisons" and "you will be senior one day" remarks don't seem to apply.

So while I don't refute that Delta added Capt positions. The way this bid is falling out the Jr. FO's like me, Roadkill and many others see mass displacements to smaller aircraft as well as crew resources stating "we do not plan to hire to replace vacancies" I know you keep saying we are going to hire. But that is not what crew resources is publishing they are saying "we do not plan to hire to replace vacancies". I did go to the road show a couple of weeks ago and they pumped everybody up by saying we are going to hire, then they decide to shut down the DC9's a year early so they can continue to delay hiring. If SD and company had just said that we are going to displace 700 pilots and shut down the DC9's early so we can fund the 717 and build up 737's, I feel other than the short term riot in the pilot lounge I could have at least respected them for telling the truth.

Keep posting though, we all need the pep talks to counter the reality of being displaced off of narrow body aircraft after 13 years.