Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
06-25-2014 | 04:36 PM
Da Hudge
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,473
Likes: 0
From: Poodle Whisperer
Even if you fully count DEN as "west coast" I'm not sure that's a fair thing to say as a blanket statement. Even if you add Guam to that figure its still pushing it. 
How many pilots does UCAL have on the west coast anyway? If SEA can grow significantly, and all signs point to that happening, and if LA grows even a tiny bit and SLC stays the same, with the movement we are seeing there will be plenty of west coast opportunities for new hires unless they have some irreconcilable precondition of walking into a west coast base in year one no matter what. In which case I'm not so sure UCAL will always be offering that anyway.
How many pilots does UCAL have on the west coast anyway? If SEA can grow significantly, and all signs point to that happening, and if LA grows even a tiny bit and SLC stays the same, with the movement we are seeing there will be plenty of west coast opportunities for new hires unless they have some irreconcilable precondition of walking into a west coast base in year one no matter what. In which case I'm not so sure UCAL will always be offering that anyway.
06-25-2014 | 04:39 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,831
Likes: 172
From: window seat
Wolfe: Delta’s move into Boston could ultimately prove good news for JetBlue • 6:49 PM
Delta Air Lines (DAL) last week included Boston in its list of key hubs and markets for the first time, worrying JetBlue (JBLU) investors, but Wolfe Research thinks DAL’s decision could be good news for JBLU, much in the way it ultimately was for Alaska Air (ALK).
Wolfe believes JBLU management seeks a 7% return on investment capital this year, but it does not see it happening under the current strategy; the firm figures DAL's growth into Boston might help to force hard choices, as it did for Alaska Air.
ALK shares fell 26% from peak to trough in May-June 2013 on fears of competitive capacity growth, which led it to take action on fees and resulting in ALK stock gains doubling over the next year.
Previous: Aggressive push by Delta Air Lines disrupts rivals.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) last week included Boston in its list of key hubs and markets for the first time, worrying JetBlue (JBLU) investors, but Wolfe Research thinks DAL’s decision could be good news for JBLU, much in the way it ultimately was for Alaska Air (ALK).
Wolfe believes JBLU management seeks a 7% return on investment capital this year, but it does not see it happening under the current strategy; the firm figures DAL's growth into Boston might help to force hard choices, as it did for Alaska Air.
ALK shares fell 26% from peak to trough in May-June 2013 on fears of competitive capacity growth, which led it to take action on fees and resulting in ALK stock gains doubling over the next year.
Previous: Aggressive push by Delta Air Lines disrupts rivals.
So DL's refocus in BOS (I'll believe it when I see it by the way) is good for JB because its going to hammer JB and force them to change almost everything about their business model (did you see he even put "fleet simplification" in there! LOL!) so let's price that in now.
That's good stuff. I mean that's really good stuff.
06-25-2014 | 04:47 PM
No longer cares
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 12,109
Likes: 0
From: 767er Captain
Growth of earnings which would come from growth of fleet (whether it be organic or codeshared) Yeah I know we don't like codeshare, but I am talking about their ability to grow earnings which attracts investors. Dividends and a good balance sheet will only go so far. They have to grow or else the big money will eventually abandon ship for companies that are growing earnings at a higher rate which translates to a better stock price. So.... The pilots' scope clause is onerous to allow much growth going forward. They need to provide some sort of product that they do not now offer. (1st class, international... something) The only way out of it is to add a second or third aircraft type.... or... get rid of the scope clause. But to answer the question more directly, I am looking at it from an investment perspective which will drive management's tactics. They are handcuffed by 2 things: Their fleet (the 737 is played out in all the markets that make it efficient, and profitable markets are all drying up) and that scope clause. Something has to give.....
06-25-2014 | 05:11 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 463
Likes: 0
That was one of the funniest analcyst articles I've read in a very long time.
So DL's refocus in BOS (I'll believe it when I see it by the way) is good for JB because its going to hammer JB and force them to change almost everything about their business model (did you see he even put "fleet simplification" in there! LOL!) so let's price that in now. That's good stuff. I mean that's really good stuff.
So DL's refocus in BOS (I'll believe it when I see it by the way) is good for JB because its going to hammer JB and force them to change almost everything about their business model (did you see he even put "fleet simplification" in there! LOL!) so let's price that in now.
That's good stuff. I mean that's really good stuff.
06-25-2014 | 05:40 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,070
Likes: 1
From: Urban chicken rancher.
I feel your pain bro.
But its probably not fair to use that past performance as a future indication. 14 years means about 2000 hire. Since then there has only been 4 years of hiring in that 14 years until early this year. 10 years of stagnation and half a decade of furloughs. That 14 year block is likely not represenative of the next 14 year block for a new hire hired today.
I think if a new hire can pass up an opposite coast upgrade for a while and is willing to be a reserve or junior line holder for a while, DL is a pretty good choice for many with west coast ambitions given the trend we're seeing. While its subject to change, so are 100% of the alternatives.
But its probably not fair to use that past performance as a future indication. 14 years means about 2000 hire. Since then there has only been 4 years of hiring in that 14 years until early this year. 10 years of stagnation and half a decade of furloughs. That 14 year block is likely not represenative of the next 14 year block for a new hire hired today.
I think if a new hire can pass up an opposite coast upgrade for a while and is willing to be a reserve or junior line holder for a while, DL is a pretty good choice for many with west coast ambitions given the trend we're seeing. While its subject to change, so are 100% of the alternatives.
06-25-2014 | 06:07 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 272
Likes: 0
Ok Buzz,
I have yet to understand why we continuously move backwards in this time of hiring and new captains (over 500 according to people on this board). I actually dread AE's because I inevitably move backwards on every AE for nearly half of a decade. I was also exactly 40% in 2011 and am now 60%ish. Why exactly is this happening? at this rate you will be displaced out of LA by 2017. Does this concern and/or surprise you.
Just venting not trying to bring doom and gloom to the west. I'm sure it is better that seems.
06-25-2014 | 07:29 PM
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 494
Likes: 21
From: MD88
06-25-2014 | 07:32 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,070
Likes: 1
From: Urban chicken rancher.
Ok Buzz,
I have yet to understand why we continuously move backwards in this time of hiring and new captains (over 500 according to people on this board). I actually dread AE's because I inevitably move backwards on every AE for nearly half of a decade. I was also exactly 40% in 2011 and am now 60%ish. Why exactly is this happening? at this rate you will be displaced out of LA by 2017. Does this concern and/or surprise you.
Just venting not trying to bring doom and gloom to the west. I'm sure it is better that seems.
I have yet to understand why we continuously move backwards in this time of hiring and new captains (over 500 according to people on this board). I actually dread AE's because I inevitably move backwards on every AE for nearly half of a decade. I was also exactly 40% in 2011 and am now 60%ish. Why exactly is this happening? at this rate you will be displaced out of LA by 2017. Does this concern and/or surprise you.
Just venting not trying to bring doom and gloom to the west. I'm sure it is better that seems.
06-25-2014 | 07:35 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,070
Likes: 1
From: Urban chicken rancher.
06-25-2014 | 07:42 PM
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 89
Likes: 0
From: B717A
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
