Funk

There’s a joke that goes something like:
What’s the mating call of a blonde?
I’m sooo drunk.
What’s the mating call of an ugly blonde?
I said I’m drunk!

Plenty of analysis on JetBlue that points to the founder and initial investors intended to have it purchased and merged as their profitable exit strategy rather than run it long-term. In that context, with little to no overseas network to feed transatlantic flights from the eastern side of the Atlantic (plus a ton of other salient considerations to the transatlantic market), the “We’re going to start transatlantic service (a couple of years into the future)” announcement sounds a little like, “I said I’m drunk!”

freightdogg

That's a fabulous analogy! And an interesting point. Jetblue has always been the butt of merger rumors for the last... what... decade?

Two Kings

A buyout/merger of JetBlue by any of the legacy airlines would be disastrous for their pilot group. It would be a huge loss of seniority.

gloopy

And that "analysis" is outdated and irrelevant now. That being the initial plan is speculative but possible, who knows and who cares because its a different world now. Their timing was amazingly, unprecedentedly and almost impossibly lucky for them. Right when they should have been feeling the squeeze the most, the tables turned and all of their competition was yielding marketshare to anyone and everyone as fast as planes could be flown to the deserts and pilots could be trained to facilitate furloughs and downgrades and that lasted for years, all the while they had a CASM advantage that wasn't even in the same universe.

Now, however, there is no way DOT/J would allow a merger with a legacy (other than maybe SWA under a partial but significant divesture) and they know it. That ship sailed years ago. At this point they very well may merge, but the biggest would likely be AK and probably smaller (F9, NK, etc).

The EU Mint offensive is not to be taken lightly. Its not just a nibble on marketshare with a funky fresh super saver coach product; its a full on assault at a very small fraction of prevailing fares to the most critical premium revenue sources available. I can't yet tell how serious legacy management teams are taking this. Simply adding some flights in anticipation will do nothing when they fully intend to permanently shatter fares on those key premium markets by 50-80%. If anything, simply adding capacity makes legacies more vulnerable unless they intend to win that war of attrition, which they could very easilly, but they may not have the stomach to self reduce yields more in the short term to preserve them in the long term.

Numerous puzzle pieces going into place in BOS and to a lesser extent NYC are a very encouraging sign but its too early to tell what the long term counter offensive will be.

Big E 757

Very interesting and well thought out analysis. Personally I’m not too concerned. Delta had to merge with NWA to get LHR slots, and to get more, we had to buy a stake in Virgin Atlantic. The premium revenue is in the JFK/BOS-LHR route. I think JBLU is going to have a hard time acquiring LHR slots. The 50-70% lower fare they advertise is based on them serving Gatwick or Stansted. Which isn’t much different than other fares to those airports. In my opinion it’s just hype. After they realize the costs of World wide ops training for their crews, maintaining a fleet of ETOPS birds and all the engine shut down monitoring that goes along with 180 ETOPS, I don’t see how they are going to be able to undercut the market enough to make it hurt much. At least long term.

marcal

Agreed 1,000,000%

JB is so much younger than all the legacies that without significant fences ala republic/nwa it would destroy expected career progression for legacy guys.

flyallnite

[QUOTE=forgot to bid;2869039]I would love to see it taxi by in Atlanta. Itd be like seeing a steam engine on a railroad track.


Union Pacific just restored a 'Big Boy' locomotive and had it on tour all spring and summer. I was lucky to see it in person. The most powerful steam locomotive ever produced... awesome.

https://youtu.be/qp3W-M5q4nk

Herkflyr

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you are. Recently the family bought tix on JetBlue, dirt cheap. Granted this was routine domestic flying on a 320, and not Mint. I was "underwhelmed" to say the least. The TV screens, while revolutionary in 2000 (when DAL and all the other legacies had an atrocious product and almost took pride in their cancelled flights, not to mention a Crandall-esque mindset of "removing an olive from the salad saved us $42,000 last year") looked 20 years old. Small screens, clumsy buttons on the armrest to control them, and the image literally had horizontal lines back and forth like a seen from a TV show trying to date itself to the late 80s.

The passengers were mostly of the "wow, I've never flown before!" variety. The crew were outstanding by the way, doing a great job keeping us informed when there were some serious weather-related delays.

Most importantly, as Delta learned from Song--an otherwise great product--single class service ain't going to cut it with transoceanic or high-yield passengers. Yes, Mint is more than the basic JetBlue experience. I haven't seen anything to suggest that single-aisle service, with single-class "plus" experience in Mint will be the yield-trashing reality you suggest, compared to Delta One, and all the similar offerings from the other legacies.

However I do agree that we need to nip that in the bud. Thankfully, UNlike JetBlue's early days, we have a very good management team that can do that now.

RightSide

With this crazy summer schedule and staffing on some fleets, anyone know how the fatigue and sick calls have stacked up from previous years? Just curious, everyone I fly with seems burnt out more so this summer.

rivervisual

Fatigue calls doubled since last year. Not sure about sick calls.