Forgot to bid: Excellent post.

Here's the numbers, this takes forever to collate, so I'll update it as time permits:

Aircraft/Seats/BH Cost/Gal Fuel BL Hr/ASM Cost/Stage Length/ $ per Seat per Hour
CR2-----50-----$1,623-------309-------11.9----------432------------$32.46
CR7-----70-----$2,077-------362-------9.4------------601------------$29.67
CR9-----76-----$1,949-------461-------7.9------------565------------$25.64
DC9-30-100----$3,511-------766-------13.1---------- 454-------------$35.11
DC9-40-110----$2,812-------801--------10-----------420--------------$25.56
DC9-50-125----$3,019-------869-------9.5------------410-------------$24.15
MD-88—142----$3,662-------883-------8.5------------590-------------$25.79
MD-90—150----$3,170-------768-------6.2------------757-------------$21.13
737-800.154---$3,708-------784--------6.2-----------1326------------$24.08
A319----124---$3,078-------711--------7.1-----------830--------------$24.82
A320----148---$3,635-------779-------6.9-----------910--------------$24.56
B757NW-178---$4,509-------1007------6.4----------1381--------------$25.33
B757DL--183---$4,261-------972-------6.1-----------1210------------ $23.28
B767----220---$6,270-------1556------6.3-----------3072-------------$28.50
B757300..224--$4,490-------1169------4.8-----------1548-------------$20.04
A330......278---$6,841 ------1844------5.2-----------3674-------------$24.61
B767-4...260---$6,446-------1696------5.3-----------3164-------------$24.79
B777-2...268---$9,204-------2235------6.8-----------5850-------------$34.34
B747-4...403---$12,281------3359------6.1-----------4021-------------$30.47

I added the red for where I expect to see near term management action to "whack a mole" as things get settled in. If fuel prices go upwards that action will be sooner rather than later and the large RJ makes a good backfill for a bridge between a 50 seat and a DC9 market (or at least better than a $60 million 737).

Sure, there will be some MD90's for the upper end of the gap as well. But when you look at the seat mile costs you fully appreciate the threat the new generation RJ's are to the entire JT8D powered Douglas fleet.

Also, my guess is that the DCJ9 costs are lower as a result of more favorable contracts for their operation, as well as the lower longevity costs. To see the effect longevity has on a regional airline, just compare those numbers to Comair's.

Aircraft /Seats/BH Cost/Gal Fuel BL Hr/ASM Cost/Stage Length/ $ per Seat per Hour
CR2----------50----$1,623-------309-------11.9----------432------------$32.46
CR7----------70----$2,077-------362-------9.4------------601------------$29.67
CR9----------76----$1,949-------461-------7.9------------565------------$25.64
CR2-CMR---—50----$2,062-------346-------15.7-----------462------------$41.24
CR7-CMR-----70----$2,520-------431-------11.7-----------608------------$36.00

I left Comair's numbers out of the top chart because they are so skewed. There are other factors at play here also, but pilot longevity is a large factor. IMHO ALPA fully understands this and wishes to promote turn over at the DCI carriers to help management reduce longevity costs. The silver lining to this strategy is hopefully getting DCI pilots mainline jobs (to start their longevity over once again :rolleyes: )

Due to the contractual restrictions on DELTA, the Company needs Comair. The Company only really has full operational control over the wholly owned carriers. Mesa's argued that a Delta cancellation was a breach of the Mesa contract and Delta resolved that fight by moving Comair to NYC (where flights get cancelled frequently) and moving Mesa to CVG where schedules require less flexibility.

Wow that 757300 is LOW, but it is the 767 right? still LOW.

Buck,

Great table. Note the numbers for the 757-300, by the time the NWA realized how good they were Boeing had quit building them. Oh well, what happens when long range planning is next quarter vs next month.

Ferd

PS But the FAs are glad we have as few as we do.

Forgot to Bid,

Agree. I guess that I will have to adjust my thinking when referencing RJ's as I do not consider the 70+ seat jets to be RJ's but purely -9 and 88 replacement jets. We need to make sure that there is no further erosion of scope or it will continue to be the ever shrinking seniority list.

Yes, the 757-300 is the most efficient jet in the World. Lots of people with a little tube to push through the air. It carries more than our Business Elite equipped 767's ( a fact I somehow forgot to bring up during the merger debate, I wonder why? :p )

FWIW, a good day on the dow. (So far)

Expect to see the DC9-30s and 40s to get retired as they come up on heavy checks. The -50s will be here for at least five more years however. The costs on the smaller -9s coupled with the costs of the heavy checks make them untenable. The big question right now is what do we replace them with. With the pullbacks around the system, the immediate need is not there. But with the anticipated pick up next year, they will need to do something to replace this lift.

Correct DAL. It has long been stated that the 30's and 40's were going to be pulled from the system. That is nothing new. There are a few 50's left in the desert as well.
They need a 100 seat jet. The CS would be a good jet, but might be to far off. Given RA's statements of flying unproved technology, they may want to wait on that one too. If they could get a killer deal on 319's or 737-700's that would fit the bill nicely, but today no decision has been made. It is a good time to be in a position like we are. BA and AB will want to get the first order of the new entity so we could be in store for a good deal.
The 90's are looking good. The Chinese government is the biggest problem. When we finally deal with them that deal will go through. We are in the process of that now.

RA and EB are meeting with the MEC today. Unusual that they would be going together.

I don't believe the costs of the 777 being higher than that of the 747. Even Boeing's website says the 747 is more expensive to operate. Which is in line with DAL management touting the end of the 747 in a couple of years.