Broc,

Don't worry about furloughs, but if you are junior you need to live your life as if you might have to go a couple of years without big D in your life. Just as on the MD88 you've got to expect the ground lift dumpers to occasionally not deploy and have a plan for it. Delta isn't staffing for furloughs right now and the process of doing so takes more time than Delta has before mid 2013 when most see things actually beginning to turn around. By 2015, I think Delta will once again be "the place to be." That forecast has not changed since the merger BTW.

Since the market took a serious turn in 2008 on top of a merger, Delta has done very well to avoid furloughs. There are times when we've been on the bubble. 2012 has been the most significant threat and remains so. Once we clear that obstacle things should improve for a number of reasons.

We are not sure how tall the threat is we have to fly over in 2012. Failure of the euro zone is going to harm growth. If it is really true that AF/KLM adds a billion or more to our profits, we have to ask, what are the relationships between European sovereign default and our network revenues? One question I've not heard asked is, will the unwinding of the RJ feed have a material effect on our ability to fill mainline jets in our hubs? Everyone assumes what is bad for RJs is good for us, but management and ALPA have been claiming the relationship is symbiotic for years. What if they were not simply justifying our lousy scope policies and there is some truth there? We are in an incredibly complex business.

As a junior pilot, the warning sign to watch for is a large number of first officers being staffed to the MD88 / DC9 / 320 with the single most significant predictor being an imbalance of FO's to Captains. When you see a greater than ~ 20% over staffing in First Officers, the bottom 20% are prime for displacement to the street.

First though, Delta will seek ways to mitigate furloughs. Delta prefers early retirements to furloughs (cheaper to shrink that way). Long term leaves will be offered (which is happening now) an lowered lines (probably to come in the first quarter of 2012). We need almost everybody here for the Summer 2012 schedule.

The window of opportunity ALPA had for an early contract, or extension, probably officially closed with the AMR bankruptcy. There is no reason for management to make a commitment to us until they know how AMR is going to shake out. But, our timing isn't all bad if my optimism for 2013 holds out. Our deal just isn't going to happen real fast without some unforeseen catalyst. 2014 to 2015 would be about par for course. If we have a representational change, tack a year or two or more on to that. (USAPA has done nothing to get their pilots a contract)

There are also real questions about revenue sustainability. IMHO the market is much more volatile than it was after September 11th.

That is the most significant effect AMR's bankruptcy will have on Delta pilots.

There's no way we're going to see a new contract until AMR's future is more clear.

No, not at all. His salary was in line with a FAM that is in my reserve unit -- and I've had the same discussion with him as well.

Pulling from a criminal justice school information website:

Federal air marshal pay can vary depending upon your experience and education; however, according to salary.com and TSA literature, entry level salary is, on average estimated to be $48,000 per year; however, more experienced air marshals can make $70,000 to $90,000. Those in supervisory or higher ranking roles tend to earn significantly greater.

Hmmm... Just thinking this might be the timing for an Alaska deal for us? Crazy or just crazy???

So, without trying to sound like a jerk, what's your point? Lots of people make more than me. I don't feel the need to lie about my salary. My salary isn't a mystery, but it's also nobody's business.

Maybe if more people knew the truth about pilot pay, we wouldn't have folks like Gordon Bethune convincing viewers that pilots are the spawn of satan.

I wonder what the starting salary of a TSA screener with a 4-year degree and no previous government employment?

Is it above the $20,700 a new hire ASA pilot would get or closer to what a new hire Delta pilot would get on straight reserve of $47,040?

:D

Ask gloopy.

But my bet, is no you don't do anything right now. Why tie yourself up to the free delta-connection-in-big-jets cow when you have no idea what's coming next.

I disagree - AMR is saying around 18 months for the bankruptcy, and if they want labor savings, its better to do it earlier than later. I could see the labor contracts being settled within a year, which puts us just before out amendable date.

There's no benefits to the company to stretching it out - they are in bankruptcy and can threaten with the courts. If AMR wanted to play hardball, they would bring APA to the table, hand them the latest proposal and say "here yah go - This or we'll see you in front of the judge in two months."

Nope. Not a no-brainer.

Go ask your question on the Cargo forum, and let some junior UPS pilots share their opinion of UPS with you.

You're right, that is ridiculous. There is virtually no chance of that happening. Delta and United have very good business plans now, are profitable, and took the pensions already. The only thing I see here that could be a potential problem for us pilots is this could give Alpa an out for trying to get us what we deserve.