ACL,

A couple dozen pages ago Slow posted something about a decrease in RJ flying and alluded to a significantly less rosy future for Regional Jets.

I asked him to elaborate, but he didn't....

Could you please explain (in a little bit of detail) what you mean by the portion of your post I quoted.

I'd really like to know what the minimum number of RJs operating as "Delta Connection" will be for the next few years.

Thanks.

Slow,

We understand - it will take time. But do you also understand why a large number of DAL pilots are very skeptical about this? We have been hearing about RJs growing markets for mainline since at least 2000. For the most part it has not happened.

We also understand there have been a number of complicating factors: 911, BK, merger etc and maybe this time it will be different, but until it happens, I will remain skeptical about management growing mainline.

Scoop - Skeptical :cool:, yet hopeful. :)

Great post. Thanks!

Check out page 75 of the 2010 10 K

http://images.delta.com.edgesuite.ne...s/2010_10K.pdf

Yeah, that's slowplay for you: :D

Johnso,

Thanks for the link. Unfortunately all I got out of it were the number of aircraft being operated by each of the DCI carriers at the end of 2010 and 2011, as well as how many are under contract when the contracts expire.

It's my understanding that the number under contract typically decreases in the intervening years.

For example ASA and Skywest had 245 aircraft under contract as of 12/31/2011. One of their contracts (for 12 aircraft) expires 12/31/2012. The other contracts don't expire until 2020 and at that time they will have 53 aircraft under contract. I would think they don't go from 245 (2011) to 233 (2012) and stay at 233 until say... 2019.

What does a "minimum number of RJ's" mean?

Other than the company foolishly inking long term, airtight, debt guzzling, guaranteed profits-to-them regardless of the losses-to-us, outsourcing just because you can even if it directly funds a yield trashing cut throat competitor, contracts with DCI carriers, what is "minumum" about the number of RJ's?

Maximum I could see. C2K12 will hopefully reel in scope, so I could also see minimum levels of required reductions in outsourced RJ's (especially 51-76 seaters) but the over all number of RJ's allowed to be outsourced should be an ever decreasing maximum.

Johnso, quoted the correct page in the 10K filing. These CPA's are not a steady number of jets until the expiration date. Many of them layer the number and types of jets that are included in the CPA all the way to the expiration date. If you note the numbers of jets that are under each CPA in Johnso's reference, you will note that many of these agreements have very few jets still under the agreement.

This does not preclude DAL from signing news agreements or add on agreements for the jets that go out of a given CPA, just that the original CPA's reduce the total number of jets covered by them.

They have talked about this nugget many times in investor calls etc. They do not elaborate on the numbers that are removed from each agreement yoy, and the only public reference is the 10K data.

Also of note, many of the newer CPA; excluding Pinnacle and CPS which are longer agreements, most are signed for around six year. Reference some of the RJET agreements as reference.

What acl doesn't seem to want to say is that there are NO minimum number of RJ's...only a maximum number allowed to operate. He's not very good at saying he made a mistake by referring to a "floor" for RJ contracts.

Carl

If this forum was a saloon, i have a feeling, well, standby for video...

As to costs, I obviously don't know either but I vaguely recall now that some slots are size restricted. Which is dumb. A blip is a blip. Wasnt it in 00 or 01 that the FAA said 50 seats and under were exempt from slot control? Not sure if that kind of slot control is the reason for the Dash 8s.

But my idea is not to give away markets but do more with slots. Bar says the 76 seaters best the 88 on casm, but maybe not in resources required once at the hub and maybe the 88 can make a difference. Kind of like 727s in Florida and SWA today.