Check your math... looking at my seniority calculator, there are 688 retirements between today and 2016, and 1088 between today and 2017..... and those are the folks senior to me. I'm sure there's a few old dudes below me as well.

I guess I'm a little more optimistic. With the average Delta pilot not making it to age 63 (I was 10500 after the merger, 9700ish today), I believe there will consistent forward movement going forward (case in point, last two AE's I moved up, not backwards for the first time since the merger). Add in airplanes not getting retired as soon as we thought, flight time/duty time, and heave forbid we get a year or two in the next decade with some anemic growth.....

 

wee bit o'tort,

4 years is really 5 now as of last month. I guess we should term those hired in the last 5 years as "new hires"?

It's interesting you mention 1 year from panel to window seat in 88. Looking at the PMDL 1990 fleet, about 45% of the planes required an FE. I'd estimate that probably 20% of the pilots were FE's at the time? If thats right, then imagine this- if we still had 20% of the 12,022 pilot group as FEs that'd be 2,400 pilots. That'd mean 12-14 years of sideway action on our seniority list. In the 80s when the guys were stuck as FEs, was it for 12-14 years?

Also, this reminds me of the "NEW HIRES IN THE ER!? DO YOU KNOW HOW LONG IT TOOK ME TO GET IN THAT SEAT!?!" Stuff. Look at the 2010 fleet versus the 1990 fleet. There's a reason it took so long. Not to mention but I believe CAL was hiring in the 756 and FedEx hires directly into the MD11 now. I know because I talked to an 17 year MD11 LCA who had two new hires coming up for OE. It's not uncommon in this industry now.

Of course the one thing i can't help but notice is the 200 "hundred" seaters that existed at DAL and NWA in 1990. Where'd they go? I should look at pilots and say "hired directly into the ER? Do I know how lucky I am? Do you know how lucky you were to have scope?"

Anyways, forgot my point.

I guess 5 years means you shouldn't complain even if you're complaining about outsource induced shrinkage and stagnation? Outsourcing that if it didn't exist would make age 65 nearly unnoticeable to everyone but the top tier pilots? Honestly, I don't hear "new hires" out on the line complain about being here. I'm in the mix with them, from what I see we're all glad to be here and have a seniority number. You should have seen the airlines we came from!

Anyways, the one thing I've noticed:

-FA's years ago loved that when a senior FA got old, fat, pregnant or married they were let go. Until they got old, fat, pregnant or married.

-Pilots loved age 60 until they turned 60. 'I'm not ready to hang it up..." but you were ready for everyone else to hang it up? Funny how that works.

-Everybody wants to be young again while everyone wants seniority.

If the bible talks about selfishness, it's not a new invention.

 

So very true...

 

Btw livingthedream,

I'd tell these new hires to shove it... If I were senior.

 

I try not to complain too much, but 16 years to upgrade sounds pretty darn good to me. I'll be well past that before I can upgrade unless something big changes soon. That's if I jump at the first available junior reserve captain seat I can touch, which I, like you, won't do. I don't normally bring it up with the captains I fly with, but when it does come up, I find that many are very surprised at how bad the stagnation is for the guys hired in the late 90's, early 2000's.

 

It is interesting nwa.

The new ATLDC9A plug is 15 years.

Did I mention LCA on FedEx MD11 is 17 years?

I believe I am right on this too, 11 years will not buy you a weekends off line on the ATLM88 B.

 

I was hired 1 year after you LTD, late 89, and I checked out as a 727 A in NYC in 99. I also had enough junior to me to hold partial month move ups and SRL's. 96 new hires were in the left seat on Express by 1998 as well. I considered myself to be lucky to be 40 and a 727A at the time.

 

Again, timing is everything. If i were hired xxx months ago, i would be making xxx more and upgrade in xxx years sooner. We all hear it on the line, and not much we can do about it. Our QOL links directly to number of new hires. For the past 5 years, we moved back by quite a bit, let's hope the slide stops next year.

 

Capn, ftb;

Might want to reread my post. Missed my point completely. Wasn't braggin' nor complaining. Just stating my personal experiences. This biz was/is/always will be a total crap shoot.

Point I was trying to make is; it gets old flying with the guys (or reading their forums) who are always complaining about getting hosed... I guess my expectations were never that high... Seeing all the airlines fold during my early years, I pretty much decided if I made it through my entire career with the same airline without spending any time on the street, I won the lotto.

btw, I have voted no on every contract since being hired... primarily because of scope.

p.s. ftb it was the mighty 727, not the muddy-dog.

 

What we need is a good old fashioned hiring boom like we had from 85-91. Must have been about 2500-3000 hired back then. This is for DAL South.