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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
(Post 1165985)
Well, that's just not true. The problem with this situation is that if the facts point to a conclusion that doesn't match certain people's preconceived expectations, then you are accused of "managing expectations," or in other words "don't confuse me with the facts." Here is just a sample of the problems you might face in this analysis. Here are some sample pay rates all from the second year, with the exception of our probationary rate that is thrown in for reference only:
Industry average 76 seat F/O : $35.40 DL probationary pay..............: $58.59 DL 76 seat F/O.....................: $58.59 Industry average 76 seat CA..: $64.60 DL MD-88 F/O......................: $84.50 DL A-320 F/O.......................: $86.46 DL 737 F/O..........................: $89.68 DL 76 Seat CA.....................: $107.71 The average hourly cost for second year pay at regionals is $100.00 per hour for the whole crew. At DL pay it is $166.30. That is pay only. Factor in 14% DC, work rules, disability, and the rest and you can see where easily our pilot costs are almost double the regionals. That is before we get whatever pay raise is your "Personal Minimum" in the ongoing negotiations. Right now the top of scale rates for 76 seat F/O's is about 30% below our probationary pay. This doesn't imply any answer to any question. It is just the statement that this hasn't been studied is just completely false. I gave two year rates, but this disparity exists all throughout the longevity steps. The problems it can generate cascade down in many different ways, but I am already going to be firebombed for "managing expectations" so I will just quit while I am behind. Just imagine a career path for a pilot that comes in at mainline narrowbody first officer and one that comes in at industry standard 76 seat wages. Show me those career paths and how a pilot in each path has equal pay over their first five years. The problems are incredibly complex. By the way, all of this information is available to anyone that would take a couple of hours to do the research. Doing that work might be a better path to making an informed decision. You take other forum members to task for lack of research. Better look in the mirror buddy... Here's the thing. I just spent maybe 10 minutes looking only at Captain pay for 76 seat jets. That's the CRJ-900 and E-190. You claim that industry average 76 seat Captain pay is $64.60 per hour. I want to see your "research". I don't believe there are any CRJ-900 Captains with one or two years of longevity at any what I'll call "Respectable Regionals". SkyWest: Year 2 (not likely): $66/hour Year 20: $112/hour ASA: Year 2 (not likely): $65/hour Year 18: $107/hour Jet Blue: Year 2 (not likely): $126/hour Year 12: $143/hour Pinnacle/Mesaba: Year 2 (not likely): $67/hour Year 20: $106/hour Mesa: Year 2 (not likely): $63/hour Year 20: $104/hour Quick averages shows year two Captain pay at $77.40 and top scale at $114.40. While you and I differ on the merits of the DALPA/DPA debate, I certainly hope that ALPA's "best and brightest" E&FA specialists are more accurate than your numbers or we are doomed. |
Originally Posted by Delta1067
(Post 1165997)
BS! Regionals also have 401K match, work rules, disability etc etc etc so I so BS that our costs would be double. You are assuming zero additional costs for regionals other than the $100 per hour crew rate. Bad assumption.
But he's not wrong. Take a look at the front page of this website and compare. DAL's DC is 14%. The first 5 years at DCI regionals have an average 401K percentage match of pilot contributions around 5% that's based on an average crew wage that's 66% less. Per Diem is 20% lower at the regionals. ($1.65-$1.70 compared to $2.00 at DAL). Work rules? Compass deadheads at 75% pay. Yes, they have higher hours in their reserve guarantee, but they also get fewer days off. Both those components lower DCI pilot costs compared to mainline rules. DCI regional hotel costs are about 20% less than Delta. And all these are costs under our current contract...not the more expensive one we're negotiating. Last time I checked PCL was in bankruptcy and looking for wage givebacks. CMR was negotiating a concessionary deal. American Eagle is in bankruptcy and getting 1113'd. Do you think the results of those situations is going to help or hurt your premise going forward?:confused: |
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
(Post 1165985)
Well, that's just not true. The problem with this situation is that if the facts point to a conclusion that doesn't match certain people's preconceived expectations, then you are accused of "managing expectations," or in other words "don't confuse me with the facts." Here is just a sample of the problems you might face in this analysis. Here are some sample pay rates all from the second year, with the exception of our probationary rate that is thrown in for reference only:
Industry average 76 seat F/O : $35.40 DL probationary pay..............: $58.59 DL 76 seat F/O.....................: $58.59 Industry average 76 seat CA..: $64.60 DL MD-88 F/O......................: $84.50 DL A-320 F/O.......................: $86.46 DL 737 F/O..........................: $89.68 DL 76 Seat CA.....................: $107.71 The average hourly cost for second year pay at regionals is $100.00 per hour for the whole crew. At DL pay it is $166.30. That is pay only. Factor in 14% DC, work rules, disability, and the rest and you can see where easily our pilot costs are almost double the regionals. That is before we get whatever pay raise is your "Personal Minimum" in the ongoing negotiations. Right now the top of scale rates for 76 seat F/O's is about 30% below our probationary pay. This doesn't imply any answer to any question. It is just the statement that this hasn't been studied is just completely false. I gave two year rates, but this disparity exists all throughout the longevity steps. The problems it can generate cascade down in many different ways, but I am already going to be firebombed for "managing expectations" so I will just quit while I am behind. Just imagine a career path for a pilot that comes in at mainline narrowbody first officer and one that comes in at industry standard 76 seat wages. Show me those career paths and how a pilot in each path has equal pay over their first five years. The problems are incredibly complex. By the way, all of this information is available to anyone that would take a couple of hours to do the research. Doing that work might be a better path to making an informed decision. First of all, Happy Easter everyone. Hope you are enjoying it with your families. For those that are out on the line, I wish for you a quick return home and eventually holiday pay like the other employees receive. Alpha, I'm really surprised. Both Delta1067 and Wasatch make a good point. This is not a good comparison and is surprisingly sloppy for you. Any chance you'd like another shot and a re-do on your work here? Take care everyone |
Yeah but how much does that regional CEO make? How about the entire management team? How about the board? How about all those schedulers? How about training Departments and property rented? Delete all of that and I'm sure mainline control would be cheaper. The only reason they keep it up is to keep the camels nose under that tent. So that one day they might be able to outsource even more.
I think they know it's cheaper they just don't want to admit the entire rj debacle mistake they've made. Just a thought... |
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
(Post 1165985)
Well, that's just not true. The problem with this situation is that if the facts point to a conclusion that doesn't match certain people's preconceived expectations, then you are accused of "managing expectations," or in other words "don't confuse me with the facts." Here is just a sample of the problems you might face in this analysis. Here are some sample pay rates all from the second year, with the exception of our probationary rate that is thrown in for reference only:
Industry average 76 seat F/O : $35.40 DL probationary pay..............: $58.59 DL 76 seat F/O.....................: $58.59 Industry average 76 seat CA..: $64.60 DL MD-88 F/O......................: $84.50 DL A-320 F/O.......................: $86.46 DL 737 F/O..........................: $89.68 DL 76 Seat CA.....................: $107.71 The average hourly cost for second year pay at regionals is $100.00 per hour for the whole crew. At DL pay it is $166.30. That is pay only. Factor in 14% DC, work rules, disability, and the rest and you can see where easily our pilot costs are almost double the regionals. That is before we get whatever pay raise is your "Personal Minimum" in the ongoing negotiations. Right now the top of scale rates for 76 seat F/O's is about 30% below our probationary pay. This doesn't imply any answer to any question. It is just the statement that this hasn't been studied is just completely false. I gave two year rates, but this disparity exists all throughout the longevity steps. The problems it can generate cascade down in many different ways, but I am already going to be firebombed for "managing expectations" so I will just quit while I am behind. Just imagine a career path for a pilot that comes in at mainline narrowbody first officer and one that comes in at industry standard 76 seat wages. Show me those career paths and how a pilot in each path has equal pay over their first five years. The problems are incredibly complex. By the way, all of this information is available to anyone that would take a couple of hours to do the research. Doing that work might be a better path to making an informed decision. Rates arent the whole picture. You are correct in saying that it is complex (no doubt about that) due to the varying efficiencies of aircraft and CASMs, but what is the crew cost per passenger seat per hour? I'm sure FTB could make a pretty spreadsheet for that, it is not my forte'. I think just comparing hourly rates/passenger is fair comparison for the sake of arguement(leaving out DC and the other extraneous items). I don't think it gets us anywhere, but it is an academic discussion anyway isn't it? There are wide variances between DCI's when it comes to rotation construction, DC plans, etc. I have seen their rotations, some are ugly, some are 24-26 hour 4 days. This is why I think hourly cost per seat per hour is a fair comparison for bringing it in house. This, by the way, isn't me wishing for anything...although you all know where I stand on the topic. I also think SWA W-2's+5% for the 88 is the floor. |
Originally Posted by slowplay
(Post 1166006)
Just for fun, let's assume he's wrong on all the peripheral stuff. He's just shown you a direct crew cost disadvantage (cost increase) of 66%, not including reserves and all the other stuff associated in a mainline versus DCI comparison.
But he's not wrong. Take a look at the front page of this website and compare. DAL's DC is 14%. The first 5 years at DCI regionals have an average 401K percentage match of pilot contributions around 5% that's based on an average crew wage that's 66% less. Per Diem is 20% lower at the regionals. ($1.65-$1.70 compared to $2.00 at DAL). Work rules? Compass deadheads at 75% pay. Yes, they have higher hours in their reserve guarantee, but they also get fewer days off. Both those components lower DCI pilot costs compared to mainline rules. DCI regional hotel costs are about 20% less than Delta. And all these are costs under our current contract...not the more expensive one we're negotiating. Last time I checked PCL was in bankruptcy and looking for wage givebacks. CMR was negotiating a concessionary deal. American Eagle is in bankruptcy and getting 1113'd. Do you think the results of those situations is going to help or hurt your premise going forward?:confused: |
Originally Posted by TheManager
(Post 1166007)
Both Delta1067 and Wasatch make a good point. This is not a good comparison and is surprisingly sloppy for you.
Originally Posted by Wasatch Phantom
(Post 1166002)
I don't believe there are any CRJ-900 Captains with one or two years of longevity at any what I'll call "Respectable Regionals".
So the average Compass Captain (42 jets) has 4 years tenure. He didn't include them. And Compass gets a longevity reset whenever the flow starts, keeping downward pressure on wages. The last 12 "large" RJ's placed by Delta went to Gojets...those are year 2 Captains and the airframes came from SkyWest. Those two airlines 54 of the 255 large RJ's currently operating in the Delta fleet. He also didn't mention Republic and their $37/hr FO rate. They fly 30 large RJ's for DCI. That's 1/3 of the current DCI large RJ fleet he didn't include. How do you think the PCL rates will hold up under 1113, especially as 16 of their CRJ-900 aircraft flying for Delta are being rejected? They still will have 41 -900's flying if their reorganization is successful at whatever new payrate they negotiate. How is Comair's concessionary bargaining going for their 28 large RJ's? Alfa's right, it is a complex problem. Scambo's point that it's not just rates is correct too. Using Scambo's way results in a pilot cost disparity of over 60% when compared to either aircraft block hours or pilot cost per pilot block hour. And that's just pilots. Not even including the rest of labor, the additional inefficiency of a new mainline fleet type and all the start-up and sustainment costs of operating a new fleet makes the difference gets even greater. Oh, and if all those DCI contracts guaranteed profits, why is PCL bankrupt, SKYW breaking even, and wholly owned Comair collapsing?:rolleyes: |
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
(Post 1165985)
Well, that's just not true. The problem with this situation is that if the facts point to a conclusion that doesn't match certain people's preconceived expectations, then you are accused of "managing expectations," or in other words "don't confuse me with the facts." Here is just a sample of the problems you might face in this analysis. Here are some sample pay rates all from the second year, with the exception of our probationary rate that is thrown in for reference only:
Industry average 76 seat F/O : $35.40 DL probationary pay..............: $58.59 DL 76 seat F/O.....................: $58.59 Industry average 76 seat CA..: $64.60 DL MD-88 F/O......................: $84.50 DL A-320 F/O.......................: $86.46 DL 737 F/O..........................: $89.68 DL 76 Seat CA.....................: $107.71 The average hourly cost for second year pay at regionals is $100.00 per hour for the whole crew. At DL pay it is $166.30. That is pay only. Factor in 14% DC, work rules, disability, and the rest and you can see where easily our pilot costs are almost double the regionals. That is before we get whatever pay raise is your "Personal Minimum" in the ongoing negotiations. Right now the top of scale rates for 76 seat F/O's is about 30% below our probationary pay. This doesn't imply any answer to any question. It is just the statement that this hasn't been studied is just completely false. I gave two year rates, but this disparity exists all throughout the longevity steps. The problems it can generate cascade down in many different ways, but I am already going to be firebombed for "managing expectations" so I will just quit while I am behind. Just imagine a career path for a pilot that comes in at mainline narrowbody first officer and one that comes in at industry standard 76 seat wages. Show me those career paths and how a pilot in each path has equal pay over their first five years. The problems are incredibly complex. By the way, all of this information is available to anyone that would take a couple of hours to do the research. Doing that work might be a better path to making an informed decision. Alfa, First off - We all need guys to point out the negative stuff so we can prepare our arguments against these points. This web site wouldn't be very interesting with 500 guys all agreeing with other. Now a different and perhaps more optimistic perspective: We keep saying we want to raise the bar for all pilots, yet we keep pointing out low prevailing wages for reasons why we cant do that. Why not slowly start stepping up these absurdly low pay rates. Someone has got to be first. Even if your numbers were 100% accurate how much profit do these airlines make? What is there management costs? All of this gets added directly to the outsourced pilot costs but gets spread out when we bring that flying in house. Also the large RJ would be an entry position at Delta but would be a senior position for "lifers" at the regional. Once the retirements and hiring starts a much more accurate comparison would be maybe a third year Captain at DAL with a first year FO vs. a fifteen year Captain and 5 year FO at the regionals. Another overlooked issue is the looming affect of the "1500" rule on Regional Pilot compensation - especially when ALL of the majors start hiring. I will use this example again, Jet Blue pays a top hourly rate of $143 Captain and $97 FO - How can they pull off this miracle and not Delta with all of our fabulous post merger "efficiencies?" Finally there is the whole separate issue of "branding" that we hear so much about. Does DAL really want to provide a superior product - or is this just a pure BS argument made to justify management bonuses and compensation? I don't know, but if they are serious about a unique DAL "brand" then there is an additional non financial cost to outsourcing as I am sure we are all well aware of. My point is that it is not as cut and dry as your numbers would lead us to believe. I will finish with what ALPA and DALPA keep preaching: We must raise the compensation level for all Pilots. This seems to me to go against what they actually practice: We cannot afford to pay that/fly that at mainline because others pay less. Well what is it? We can never raise compensation because someone will always be able to underbid us, or we are going to start to try raise the bar? Scoop |
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
(Post 1165985)
Well, that's just not true. The problem with this situation is that if the facts point to a conclusion that doesn't match certain people's preconceived expectations, then you are accused of "managing expectations," or in other words "don't confuse me with the facts." Here is just a sample of the problems you might face in this analysis. Here are some sample pay rates all from the second year, with the exception of our probationary rate that is thrown in for reference only:
Industry average 76 seat F/O : $35.40 DL probationary pay..............: $58.59 DL 76 seat F/O.....................: $58.59 Industry average 76 seat CA..: $64.60 DL MD-88 F/O......................: $84.50 DL A-320 F/O.......................: $86.46 DL 737 F/O..........................: $89.68 DL 76 Seat CA.....................: $107.71 The average hourly cost for second year pay at regionals is $100.00 per hour for the whole crew. At DL pay it is $166.30. That is pay only. Factor in 14% DC, work rules, disability, and the rest and you can see where easily our pilot costs are almost double the regionals. That is before we get whatever pay raise is your "Personal Minimum" in the ongoing negotiations. Right now the top of scale rates for 76 seat F/O's is about 30% below our probationary pay. This doesn't imply any answer to any question. It is just the statement that this hasn't been studied is just completely false. I gave two year rates, but this disparity exists all throughout the longevity steps. The problems it can generate cascade down in many different ways, but I am already going to be firebombed for "managing expectations" so I will just quit while I am behind. Just imagine a career path for a pilot that comes in at mainline narrowbody first officer and one that comes in at industry standard 76 seat wages. Show me those career paths and how a pilot in each path has equal pay over their first five years. The problems are incredibly complex. By the way, all of this information is available to anyone that would take a couple of hours to do the research. Doing that work might be a better path to making an informed decision. I'm not accusing you of managing expectations, but your comparison completely omits any offsets to the additional costs you mention- 1) eliminate management redundancies 2) eliminate route and hub restrictions 3) eliminate GW limitations 4) allow DAL to fly up to certificated seats capacity 5) eliminate fee for departure compensation And there is probably more. It's never mentioned because it's never been analyzed with those offsets factored. IF it has and proves your premise, please post or refer to where it's been done. You are also omitting probably the most important factor - what do the DAL pilots want? While the question appeared on the survey, neither myself or anyone else has had any focused survey on the topic. Show me an unbiased and complete analysis that encompasses the aforementioned and I'll take it at face value. Let me know when is's done, and then we can discuss Scope, otherwise the MEC has not done its homework, and it's theirs to anylyze and present to the line pilots, not ours to prove to the MEC. |
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 1165834)
Let me ask another question. With the DAL-NWA merger, the annual report from 2009 says they expected to realize $2B in synergies from more effective aircraft utilization and reduced overhead and improved operational efficiency. It would also allow them to right-size the operation and to reduce fleet costs by removing things that don't make money, like freighters? Different subject.
Anyways, a CAPA article in 2009 outlined HH four tenets of Delta's strategies and I'll post it in its entirety because you look back and the Alaska thing just makes your stomach turn:
Those airlines combined operate 1,700 airplanes of which 55% is dedicated to Delta. Skywest operates 704 regionals between it's 3 airlines in its holding company. Republic operates 338 including 91 Airbus in its 6 airlines under it's holding company of which two fly for Delta as separate entities but the same seniority list which happens to be integrated with the Frontier list. Compass has 41, Comair 68 and Pinnacle 199. So my question, how can we not find some synergies by cleaning up that mess? And of course this doesn't include Alaska's 86 737s that "not only feeds passengers to its domestic network but to its four international gateways on the West Coast to Asia." I mean if we found it combining DAL-NWA into a 700+ size fleet how can we not find synergies by combining 1,300+ airplanes? Are we really supposed to believe having 7 airlines with overlapping everything plus a guaranteed profit and costing us in so many ways, many unexpected, is more affordable than a $57 increase per hour in pilot cost or a 2/10ths of 1 cent increase in CASM for a CRJ-900 or E175? What is that? $32M a year on the entire 76 seat fleet? A 1.5% loss of a near $2B profit before you count synergies? Seems as if it would make financial sense to combine DCI's together with DAL? Or at the least take the most profitable flying and combine it (all 70+ seaters to mainline)? No staple, no merger, just take the planes and hire for them. http://www.reactionface.info/sites/d...0650820313.jpg |
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