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Old 04-18-2012, 09:27 PM
  #96171  
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Delta and WN are playing hardball with Boeing, that's the holdup...

Delta already deferred all outstanding 737-800 slots (I think it was 66) so that helped WN get their new "super premium" jet quicker... It's possible Delta's 739 deferral by a few months helps WN get more 738 delivery slots in the near term.

GK has already outlined how he plans on backfilling the capacity pulldown from the 717, he just won't retire the 737-300s as planned as new jets come on-line. That's a no brainer for WN: keep the jet that's already painted and configured for WN and common to the network while slowly eliminating the too small, not painted wrong configuration jet that is native to only the Airtran side...

The DC-9 sim will move in Q4, 2-3 months to certify is March 2013, DC9 retires late summer...really?

HA bought 15 717 from Boeing Capital September 2011 for roughly $12.5M a piece.
Boeing Capital owns approx. 80 of the 80+ jets at Airtran, you think there might be a volume discount?

Cost comparison CR7-CR9 are between $20-25M
AA paid roughly $40M for their new 737-800
Delta got the bigger 737-900s for about the same price
List for the C-Series is $40-50M

Delta paid around $400M for two 777-200LR market rate interest. Air India got ExIm bank low interest loans for their 777s...

Per RA's recent talk the difference in interest rate, not purchase price between DAL and Air India is worth 3M/year for 30 years.

Same lift:
80 717 at $10M/piece is a $800M contract...
62 738 at $40M/pice is a $2.4B contract...
130 CR7/9 at 20M/piece is 2.6B contract...

The interest rate on $400M loan can make a $3M difference a year

Now imagine what cutting the purchase price in half does for the loan...
Now imagine a quarter the cost...

CASM is completely irrelevant in this context...Its highly subsidized by the dramatically lower debt servicing aka "rent"...

The 319 isn't an orphaned fleet type as the 717, hard to imagine getting a desirable airframe for less than $20M. All the efficiency in the world won't help if the cost is twice as high, especially when trying to dig out of debt. To top it off the A319 has a 11.6% performance penalty vs the 717...As a result, the A319 talk is chaff, plain and simple.

Delta will get the 717 because it is such a no-brainer, its a smoking deal and the company doesn't need our help to get it. Together with the MD90 the 717 will over time replace the MD88 fleet at Delta and help make the transition to true next-gen aircraft a decade down the road without accruing a debt burden that makes future moves impossible...

Cheers
George
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:31 PM
  #96172  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot View Post
Interesting rumor. Guess we will find out of Friday. If the pilots came in full, they would come off the bottom of their list. If we took Capt's that would be interesting since they would be coming over here in place of a FO off the bottom of the list.

I'll wait and see and not get spooled up yet.
Why in the world would we even consider for a microsecond taking the pilots? They are getting replacement aircraft anyway and the size of the transaction, even if it does directly to DL without being laundered through a leasing company or Boeing wouldn't come near their fragmentation clause. So we just give away seniority now as charity so other pilots who aren't even facing job losses can sport bid to the airline of their choice?
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:32 PM
  #96173  
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Originally Posted by NuGuy View Post
Heyas Xray,

While I do agree with you, in AT's case, their fragmentation language included "ghost transactions" such as what you describe.

Nu
I seriously doubt the SWA contract is so strong that it mandates pilots with planes when only 88 out of 700 planes are going away...and all with replacements anyway. That's rediculous.

Last edited by gloopy; 04-18-2012 at 09:50 PM.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:37 PM
  #96174  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post
You guys are way overrating the damages because 18 aircraft were going to be delivered late. The difference between operating a 787 verses a 767 for a couple of years would not be huge. The gross weight upgrades were all we got.
If that's all we got we got punk'd.

Boeing Could Have a $16 Billion Problem (BA)

The 787 delays are a huge deal. 18 super dooper pooper premium widebodies like that, with their alleged savings add up to big penalties very fast. Then we give them a decade of relief for their order books so they can stop paying penalties to other airlines that much faster. I suppose we did that for free too then.

I'm sure we got paid big time, one way or another, for the 787 debacle and if we didn't, someone's not minding the store like they should be.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:38 PM
  #96175  
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Originally Posted by NuGuy View Post
Heyas ACL,

Not really flaming. A lot of the SWA guys are CONVINCED that's how it's going to go down. The AT guys who seem to know their contract really well also seem to think that is a distinct possibility.

Despite the fact they seem convinced it's going to happen that way, I edited it out because caused needless teethgrinding.

With that said, I don't think RA would touch that kind of deal. WAY too many problems when 319s could be had at similar prices with no hassle.

Nu
Yeah really. So let's get 88 stagnation jets but first please can we allow more 76 seaters for the privlidge!
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:01 PM
  #96176  
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Originally Posted by georgetg View Post
Delta and WN are playing hardball with Boeing, that's the holdup...

Delta already deferred all outstanding 737-800 slots (I think it was 66) so that helped WN get their new "super premium" jet quicker... It's possible Delta's 739 deferral by a few months helps WN get more 738 delivery slots in the near term.

GK has already outlined how he plans on backfilling the capacity pulldown from the 717, he just won't retire the 737-300s as planned as new jets come on-line. That's a no brainer for WN: keep the jet that's already painted and configured for WN and common to the network while slowly eliminating the too small, not painted wrong configuration jet that is native to only the Airtran side...

The DC-9 sim will move in Q4, 2-3 months to certify is March 2013, DC9 retires late summer...really?

HA bought 15 717 from Boeing Capital September 2011 for roughly $12.5M a piece.
Boeing Capital owns approx. 80 of the 80+ jets at Airtran, you think there might be a volume discount?

Cost comparison CR7-CR9 are between $20-25M
AA paid roughly $40M for their new 737-800
Delta got the bigger 737-900s for about the same price
List for the C-Series is $40-50M

Delta paid around $400M for two 777-200LR market rate interest. Air India got ExIm bank low interest loans for their 777s...

Per RA's recent talk the difference in interest rate, not purchase price between DAL and Air India is worth 3M/year for 30 years.

Same lift:
80 717 at $10M/piece is a $800M contract...
62 738 at $40M/pice is a $2.4B contract...
130 CR7/9 at 20M/piece is 2.6B contract...

The interest rate on $400M loan can make a $3M difference a year

Now imagine what cutting the purchase price in half does for the loan...
Now imagine a quarter the cost...

CASM is completely irrelevant in this context...Its highly subsidized by the dramatically lower debt servicing aka "rent"...

The 319 isn't an orphaned fleet type as the 717, hard to imagine getting a desirable airframe for less than $20M. All the efficiency in the world won't help if the cost is twice as high, especially when trying to dig out of debt. To top it off the A319 has a 11.6% performance penalty vs the 717...As a result, the A319 talk is chaff, plain and simple.

Delta will get the 717 because it is such a no-brainer, its a smoking deal and the company doesn't need our help to get it. Together with the MD90 the 717 will over time replace the MD88 fleet at Delta and help make the transition to true next-gen aircraft a decade down the road without accruing a debt burden that makes future moves impossible...

Cheers
George
Well, I guess we know who the details guy is.
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:07 PM
  #96177  
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Originally Posted by scambo1 View Post
Well, I guess we know who the details guy is.
he he, I would be remiss to not post this picture:



Cheers
George
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Old 04-19-2012, 12:06 AM
  #96178  
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Originally Posted by georgetg View Post
Delta and WN are playing hardball with Boeing, that's the holdup...

Delta already deferred all outstanding 737-800 slots (I think it was 66) so that helped WN get their new "super premium" jet quicker... It's possible Delta's 739 deferral by a few months helps WN get more 738 delivery slots in the near term.

GK has already outlined how he plans on backfilling the capacity pulldown from the 717, he just won't retire the 737-300s as planned as new jets come on-line. That's a no brainer for WN: keep the jet that's already painted and configured for WN and common to the network while slowly eliminating the too small, not painted wrong configuration jet that is native to only the Airtran side...

The DC-9 sim will move in Q4, 2-3 months to certify is March 2013, DC9 retires late summer...really?

HA bought 15 717 from Boeing Capital September 2011 for roughly $12.5M a piece.
Boeing Capital owns approx. 80 of the 80+ jets at Airtran, you think there might be a volume discount?

Cost comparison CR7-CR9 are between $20-25M
AA paid roughly $40M for their new 737-800
Delta got the bigger 737-900s for about the same price
List for the C-Series is $40-50M

Delta paid around $400M for two 777-200LR market rate interest. Air India got ExIm bank low interest loans for their 777s...

Per RA's recent talk the difference in interest rate, not purchase price between DAL and Air India is worth 3M/year for 30 years.

Same lift:
80 717 at $10M/piece is a $800M contract...
62 738 at $40M/pice is a $2.4B contract...
130 CR7/9 at 20M/piece is 2.6B contract...

The interest rate on $400M loan can make a $3M difference a year

Now imagine what cutting the purchase price in half does for the loan...
Now imagine a quarter the cost...

CASM is completely irrelevant in this context...Its highly subsidized by the dramatically lower debt servicing aka "rent"...

The 319 isn't an orphaned fleet type as the 717, hard to imagine getting a desirable airframe for less than $20M. All the efficiency in the world won't help if the cost is twice as high, especially when trying to dig out of debt. To top it off the A319 has a 11.6% performance penalty vs the 717...As a result, the A319 talk is chaff, plain and simple.

Delta will get the 717 because it is such a no-brainer, its a smoking deal and the company doesn't need our help to get it. Together with the MD90 the 717 will over time replace the MD88 fleet at Delta and help make the transition to true next-gen aircraft a decade down the road without accruing a debt burden that makes future moves impossible...

Cheers
George


Well done!
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Old 04-19-2012, 03:23 AM
  #96179  
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Originally Posted by finis72 View Post
Right from Richard
-choice between A-319's and 717's, deal done by next quarter,still negotiating but price is currently too high.( my take-away, 717's when all said and done)
-Record year for profits, 1st qtr Rasm up 13.5 %
-Hiring 2013
-ETOPS all 737-900's
-Southwest not relevant in ATL until they fix problems
-100 to 150 50 seaters
-Have to have Regional feed, too expensive to do ourselves( don't shoot me, messenger only)
-Not interested in AA, too many problems. Would love DFW and MIA hubs if available
- take back Paris
-expand Heathrow operation
-Steady growth in Pacific
-Haneda/NRT future problem, already working the issue
-$ 900 million in interest this year, have to get debt down
-Positive about getting deal done with contract
Would love DFW and MIA hubs if available

So you're telling me there's a chance
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Old 04-19-2012, 03:34 AM
  #96180  
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Originally Posted by Jughead View Post


Well done!
I hope he claps! I hope he claps! THERE IT IS!!!!

He was so happy.

Now to find the "Rudy was Offsides!!!!"
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