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Old 02-28-2020, 07:51 AM
  #11121  
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Originally Posted by FL370esq View Post
So you are saying we are going to run out of new hires? (See thread title....perhaps this thread has slightly de-railed?)
I think he is saying we won’t be hiring for pilots needed beyond 15 Aug.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:59 AM
  #11122  
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Originally Posted by CBreezy View Post
From the CDC

Disruption to everyday life might be severe,” Messonnier said, adding that she talked to her children about the issue Tuesday morning. “While I didn’t think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives.”
Her outburst was not an official statement from the CDC. Riddle me this, since her interview, has she herself appeared to speak publicly, on behalf of the CDC, about this bug? The answer tells you everything you need to know. Dr Redfield has taken control of the press releases and official statements. He, and more level headed leaders at CDC, understand the importance of providing critical, relevant and truthful information to the public.
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:21 AM
  #11123  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post
I think he is saying we won’t be hiring for pilots needed beyond 15 Aug.
Guess I missed that one in the post.....
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:42 AM
  #11124  
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Originally Posted by Mesabah View Post
No, not really 20x, the issue is not the death rate. It's the supply chain disruption, and the restriction of movement to slow the spread, in order to prevent hospital overcrowding.
Yes, 20x. The current year flu is around 0.1%. The current COVID-19 rate is estimated 2.3%. The 1918 Spanish Flu was around 2%. The first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic, was just 0.02 percent.

(this from the H5N1 page)
The case-fatality rate is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of case-fatality (CF) rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2-3% (1918 pandemic).

SARS and MERS were more deadly, but far less transmissible.
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP


I didn't say a thing about supply chain disruptions. But if you're implying that disruptions are due to "hysteria", then do a calculation of what 2% of 7 Billion people is.
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:14 AM
  #11125  
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From a UAL Pilot Hiring email you folks in their hiring pool.

“While we currently do not have confirmed class dates past March 3, we do anticipate regular classes going into summer and beyond”

So if I’m reading their tea leaves, a new hire class pause between March and summer?
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:54 AM
  #11126  
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Originally Posted by DWC CAP10 USAF View Post
From a UAL Pilot Hiring email you folks in their hiring pool.

“While we currently do not have confirmed class dates past March 3, we do anticipate regular classes going into summer and beyond”

So if I’m reading their tea leaves, a new hire class pause between March and summer?

would not surprise me to see Delta take a pause in hiring.
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:43 AM
  #11127  
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Originally Posted by Phins2right View Post
Her outburst was not an official statement from the CDC. Riddle me this, since her interview, has she herself appeared to speak publicly, on behalf of the CDC, about this bug? The answer tells you everything you need to know. Dr Redfield has taken control of the press releases and official statements. He, and more level headed leaders at CDC, understand the importance of providing critical, relevant and truthful information to the public.
She just had a press conference today. So... You're wrong.
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:56 AM
  #11128  
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Originally Posted by profit View Post
Yes, 20x. The current year flu is around 0.1%. The current COVID-19 rate is estimated 2.3%. The 1918 Spanish Flu was around 2%. The first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic, was just 0.02 percent.

(this from the H5N1 page)
The case-fatality rate is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of case-fatality (CF) rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2-3% (1918 pandemic).

SARS and MERS were more deadly, but far less transmissible.
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP


I didn't say a thing about supply chain disruptions. But if you're implying that disruptions are due to "hysteria", then do a calculation of what 2% of 7 Billion people is.
The fatality rate is not all that's important, it's the rate of hospitalization as well. The government/healthcare system can't handle hundreds of thousands to millions of new cases showing up at the hospital all at once.
I expect travel to be reduced/restricted to the cities most vulnerable, e.g. San Fransisco, as well as most international travel.
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Old 02-28-2020, 11:03 AM
  #11129  
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Now based on what some of the DR's are saying. They fully expect mortality rate to go down significantly. Most believe the actually cases are way under reported which would significantly change the formula.

You also have to remember Influenza is estimated. They are not lab confirmed cases of influenza like this new one is right now.
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Old 02-28-2020, 11:33 AM
  #11130  
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Originally Posted by profit View Post
Yes, 20x. The current year flu is around 0.1%. The current COVID-19 rate is estimated 2.3%. The 1918 Spanish Flu was around 2%. The first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic, was just 0.02 percent.

(this from the H5N1 page)
The case-fatality rate is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of case-fatality (CF) rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2-3% (1918 pandemic).

SARS and MERS were more deadly, but far less transmissible.
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP


I didn't say a thing about supply chain disruptions. But if you're implying that disruptions are due to "hysteria", then do a calculation of what 2% of 7 Billion people is.

I wouldn’t get too hung up on percentages. A lot is still unknown. Last report I read stated 1.4% and went on to say it was actually probably lower since a lot of people had it without even knowing it. Also, outside Hubei Province, the mortality rate was 0.4% for most of China.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-n...r-may-be-lower

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...overy.amp.html
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