IOW, don't spend your PS check.

 

You might want to re-read the current Section 1 and 21 language. Right now we have 2,300+ pilots (15%+) on the seniority list that are technically not covered by the provisions of Sections 1 and 21. Further, while Moak may have changed the language and the term "force majeure" may no longer be in there, 1.I.4 (and 21.9.a) still states:

"The Company will be excused from compliance with the provisions of Section 1 I. 1., 2., and 3. in the event a circumstance over which the Company does not have control is the cause of such noncompliance."

That was basically the same language the Company hung its hat on with the arbitrator after 9/11. I truly hope we don't get to that point to see if the language is tested in front of Mr. Bloch or his colleagues but, having been on the other side of that language as interpreted by an arbitrator, my faith is much less than yours. Hopefully COVID-19 fizzles like SARS and MERS and we never have to find out how strong or weak those provisions really are.

 

California is monitoring 8400 probables. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/cali...ronavirus.html

This is probably going to be a black swan event for aviation.

 

Not just aviation....regardless of whether the COVID-19 fear is rational or irrational, people/companies/governments are acting/reacting to the point that there will be second and third order economic effects if the pace continues.

 

Hospitalization for serve pneumonia is a $300K+ cost these days. Covid-19 could easily rack up a multi-trillion dollar economic black hole on that alone. It's really going to show just how unprepared we are as a country for these events.

 

Who's saying the fear of this virus, about which we still know very little, but that appears to spread easily and have 2% mortality, is irrational? Seems like a threat worth preparing for to me, but then again I'm no archeologist.

 

Not quite my point. At this point we just don't know. SARS was going to be a huge black swan event when it first appeared in the early 2000s and it fizzled and it had a nearly 10% mortality rate.. Maybe this will too, maybe it won't. Regardless, the hype and actions (whether justified or not in hindsight) still drive current actions which will have second and third order economic effects in the near future.

 

That's some 6th level spitballing there mesabah. CDC monitors = give us a call if you are not feeling well = NBD. There are other motives at play in CA, really beyond scope of this discussion.

It won't be long before the 24/7 news has people full of so much fear they are duct taping plastic to "seal" their windows and doors ala SARs circa 2003. This may cause some issues, but hopefully the press calms down and we get some real reporting done on this bug. For now, I'm thinking its full throttle on the hype. Maximum damage.

some info from near Emory:
Overall 2% mortality rate to those 70+ otherwise it is <0.3%. Italy has their attention.
higher risk of pneumonia if immunocompromised and those with other existing pulmonary conditions (think smokers, those habitually exposed to poor air quality etc)
so far responds well to antivirals
easy to kill outside the host i.e. not a persistent virus
surgical masks don't work; virus is .1-.2 microns in size. respirators of N-95 or better are more suitable as well as eyepro.
comminicablity is similar to other "flus"

More later, hopefully this helps allay some of the hype that the news is spewing. Seeing how SARS, MERS and our Ebola scare panned out, this is not going to be your black swan event as you hoped.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...navirus-cases/

That's a great link. Number of active cases has been dropping over the past few days. A stat you'll never hear the media report. Doesn't fit their fear mongering agenda.

 

"A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one which remains between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 could signal exponential growth."

Growth factor is consistently above 1 for cases outside China. Seems worthy of serious attention. I'm not fearful but I'm glad the media doesn't have its collective head in the sand like some of our leaders with ulterior motives. Unfortunately, those same leaders have planted enough anti-information bias in people's heads that many reject these and other demonstrable facts at their own peril.

Anyway, I'm sure this will all just blow over. It's basically just more flu, I'm told?