So that would be 8.5 years.

 

It says May 2020, but keep in mind that's based on sending 25 guys to AA this December and the following December. Which typically doesn't happen. I'd say conservatively they'll flow in July. 3 months shy of 9 years.

 

Have you seen the chart from AA training, as of Jan 16? It lists the planned hires by month. It is on at least 3 treads here in the last couple of days.

 

See, I still think that will be pretty accurate. There will definitely be 50 guys between now and then hired OAL. It's an unknown variable, sure, but hiring is only going to pick up elsewhere.

 

Let's hope so for the junior guys' sake.

 

Hahaha Screwing up their pipeline? I'm certain AA would have no problem filling mainline classes if wholly owneds went tits up tomorrow.

 

Arguing flow times... again... like it makes a difference. No one can take flow to the bank thus it has no value. Spend time worrying about the quality of life and things that we can actually take to the bank. Then worry about your precious flow date once everything else is better.

If you are hired today, you will flow in MANY years. If you were hired before today, you will flow is a little less time. To spend time worrying about this is crazy. So much time and effort is wasted on this flow topic. Everything else that really matters to us and our families gets brushed under the rug.

 

Don't listen to him, he told me the sky was falling and turns out he was wrong.

Filler

 

Whether flow is 6 years, 8 years, or 10 years; it will not be 25 years as it has been in the past. You will not get gray hair and go balding working for Envoy (unless you want to be a lifer), as pilots have in the past.

If you look at the hiring rates projected across the majors in a few years, and figure how many will come from regionals, it will not be on the upper end of that number of years range. There are 20,000 regional pilots. In 2018, the majors will hire between 4,000 - 5,000 for the year. It will go up from there according to the Boeing report they put out in 2016.

Some will continue to come direct from the military, some will come from commercial aviation, but with that rate most will come from the regionals.

There will continue to be flows, but there will be an increasing number of pilots hired OTS, both from other regionals and those that have flows. Things are going to change in the regional world over the next few years. There are just too many hires for the current model, at the current size, to remain viable. These changes will bode well for the bulk of the regional pilots wanting to get hired by the majors.

 

I tend to agree. Flow will hopefully become meaningless in the next few years. If you don’t have your degree, go work on getting it. You can most likely cut the flow in half by going around it.