Somebody have to get on here and tell the truth. Too many recruiter here and cool aid drinkers. He is right. Flow is 11 years and more. Stop trying the lies to new hire. Only hurts envoy in long run.

11 years and more? Is that a poem?

Much better .. 😉

This is the correct answer.

When is the last of the Protected Pilots (doh 10/11/2011) estimated to flow?

How many Protected Pilots are still to flow? (Not counting the lifers that have already said no.)

1. 05/20

2. 580+

Thanks. So the forecast is in 05/2020 the 10/11/2011 hire will flow. That is about 8 1/2 years, down from the 11+ years today.

I know some (I do not name names) here will call me a lier; will say I am an Envoy recruiter, am Envoy management, am drinking the Envoy cool aid, and am green and inexperienced. I can assure you I am none of these. But I can do math. These are what the facts say.

You aren't a liar. You might be a recruiter or management. Or, you could just be a greenhorn newby to the airline industry and the stars in your eyes from those big AA jets that Envoy recruiters promised you would be sitting in 5 years from now.

Look at the False Advertising thread. There's a lot of sense there. Yes, you can do math like many, but does that 8.5 years you come up with include months where AA doesn't hire or the month of December when there are no flows? Let's just say that the 8.5 years is correct and will happen right on schedule. It's still 8.5 years! That's a long time to be abused by Envoy.

You still cannot call 8.5 years a FACT at this point. You can call it a projection. The only FACT you have right now is the current guy who just flowed. So, a bit over 11 years to flow. I agree that the flow time will come down from 11 years to more like the 8.5 you mention. And that's IF, Envoy increases pay and benefits to attract the few remaining qualified aviators available willing to suffer abuse at the hands of a harsh taskmaster.

Take a look at Envoy's situation. It's precarious with the need for Captain's going unfilled. Hiring inexperienced guys with no 121 will just perpetuate this problem going forward. A reckoning is coming. Envoy will not flow 25 Captain's in a month if it requires them to park airplanes due to lack of Captain crew.

It is the current forecast. (Facts are where things are today. Forecasts are everything in the future. Just like the fact you woke up today, but tomorrow it is only a forecast you will wake up and get out of bed.) That is what I stated.

All sorts of things can change in 8.5 years. The regional industry could collapse, there could be consolidation, regionals may go out of business, flows could decrease or increase, other major airlines could hire away a good chunk of the mid level pilots (not those flowing in a year or two), or even some of the flying could be taken back by the majors.

Indeed, if you look at the projections in the next few years by Boeing, US hiring from the regionals is forecast to be about 1 in 5 of all the current number of regional pilots each year. I personally think that will decimate the ranks and the regionals model in five or ten years will look nothing like it is today. (This is completely INDEPENDENT of the False Advertising Thread or what Envoy recruiting has said.)

I understand your cynicism and attitude. You are entitled to have any attitude you wish. That is your right. As for your repeated guesses about me, I will repeat no. So stop guessing.

• Valid only for protected pilots
• 29 pilots per month will flow to AA when AA is hiring
o If AA hires 100 pilots – we send 29
o If AA hires 57 pilots – we send 29
o If AA hires 56 pilots – we send 28
o If AA hires 40 pilots – we send 20
• 29 pilots per month begins in June
• 25 pilots will flow in May, in addition, another 4 pilots will flow in May for a total of 29
as partial settlement for flow grievances filed over last 10 months
• 9 additional pilots (above and beyond the 29) will be offered flow prior to April 2020 to
settle flow grievances filed over last 10 months
o Minimum of 29 will be further enhanced by these 9. We will see >29 flows until
these 9 slots are sent to AA
• another 9 pilots slots similar to bullet point above, if the company’s staffing allows it,
will be sent above and beyond to AA by the end of the Protected Pilot Agreement
o This brings the rectification of the grievances to a firm 13 additional monthly
slots on the April 2020 timetable, with 9 “options”
• LOA clarifies expectations on flow moving forward from both sides
• No changes to any pilot flow “bands” after the Protected Pilots
• ALPA estimates this will reduce the flow time for the most junior protected pilot (and
every pilot junior to him) by 3-4 months
• Beginning 1/1/2019 – an Envoy pilot will only be eligible to flow if he holds or has held a
Captain status
• Grievances FLO-0114, FLO-0117, FLO-0217, FLO-0118, FLO-0218 are all withdrawn.