FullThrust

One has to believe that outside attrition will pickup at some point, which will drive the flow time down. Retirements really haven’t even gone into full swing yet. And that doesn’t even include those who don’t want to wait until 65 to retire. That being said, trying to predict something more than 3 years out in this industry is just a wild ass guess anyways.

Pedro4President

^^^^ agreed

AZPilotMike

You are crazy. Even the recruiters are saying 9.5 years now.

Whiskey4

9.5 years is with zero attrition outside the flow. Do you really think not a single pilot will leave this airline for Delta, United, SWA, retirement, etc. Plus attrition can safely be assumed to increase as we get deeper into the hiring curve.

From reading the various forums, it appears that approximately 400 pilots left Envoy last year (including the flow).

So, you will accelerate fairly quickly for the first year or so. Then, an ever increasing percentage of the attrition will move below you until you finally flow. The last six months prior to your flow will probably see very little outside attrition affecting your flow date.

The equation isn’t as simple as number of pilots on the list right now divided by rate of flow. That assumes everyone stays and everyone flows. Also factor in that 5-10% of the senior folks on the list list will decline the flow.

So 2300 pilots minus 150-ish declining.
Total list now 2150. The following is all just best guess based on flow and outside attrition estimates (back of the napkin numbers only):

400 - Year 1
350 - Year 2
300 - Year 3
300 - Year 4
300 - Year 5
250 - Year 6
250 - Year 7

Total = 2150

The math is really loose, but 6-7 years is not unrealistic in this environment. The numbers above are my prediction on how the total attrition ahead of a new pilot will play out through their years of service. Assumptions (such as annual attrition outisde he flow) play a big part. Zero that out and you’re looking at 9-10+ years.

AZPilotMike

I hope you’re correct, believe me as I currently sit at a 12/22 flow date. However, attrition may reduce the time but if the company drops below 25 a month that will certainly offset it.

It’s basically a crap shoot to be honest. We are completely at this whim of the company.

Whiskey4

The reductions have been baked into the projections for some time. Back when they were talking about 5.5 (which sounds like it may be reality for certain folks hired in 2016) that included the reduced flow.

And don’t get me wrong...the mega classes of 70 were pushing flow time in the wrong direction. Any time you’re adding 80 more per month than the flow number they should expect the month they go to AA that is a problem (since, and I’m just guessing here, attrition likely won’t increase enough to offset that).

bigtime209

As it stands right now, flow drops from 25 to 15/month in summer of 2020. Your flow date takes that into account. Any attrition on top of that is just gravy.

Inop2

From ALPA...2027 for latest new hire. The flow is fairy dust....pretend for a lot of us and candidates are understanding it and going elsewhere. Endeavor training department is booked through May and they offer just a $10k sign on bonus and they’ve started street captains this week. Main reason they’re going to Endeavor, they like their odds in a preferential interview over a flow that will happen after they find a mate, get married and the kids are graduating from elementary school.

bourbon scamp

Holy carp. Maybe that whole scaling back new hires to avoid furloughs thing has some merit.

FullThrust

The odd thing is if they furloughed they would actually be furloughing captains as well.