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Old 11-02-2022, 11:50 AM
  #2401  
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All valid points, and indicative of what the entire industry is dealing with. Even LCCs can hold onto pilots through training, or year 1. This is part of why I expect the FFD model is going to end, and all wholly-owned carriers will be absorbed eventually. Companies need pilots to come on board and stay, and regionals just can't sustain that these days.
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Old 11-02-2022, 01:58 PM
  #2402  
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Originally Posted by DMH1967 View Post
All valid points, and indicative of what the entire industry is dealing with. Even LCCs can hold onto pilots through training, or year 1. This is part of why I expect the FFD model is going to end, and all wholly-owned carriers will be absorbed eventually. Companies need pilots to come on board and stay, and regionals just can't sustain that these days.
The industry is cyclical. This cycle won’t last, which is why AAG was willing to throw the money at it that they did and have the 50% pay premium only through Aug 2023. In 12 to 16 or so months, the majors will be caught up on the hiring deficit that was caused by the Covid early retirements. Majors will go back to not hiring pilots without TPIC unless they have some “special” qualification and pilots will go back to needing those jobs that regionals have. You have to look at the BIG picture. Part of that is looking beyond JUST the pilots. The regional model saves money.

There was a graphic that I wished I had saved because I can’t find it. It was from one of the industry hiring groups, but it PERFECTLY showed the number of pilots that retired early because of Covid and retirements verses hiring and what the curve looked like to get the rosters filled again. Baring any major recession, which will only reduce the time frame, major hiring will be caught up by sometime in 2023. And for those that argue there are still a lot of retirements on the horizon, I emphasize CAUGHT UP. There will still be significant hiring, just not the mad scramble there currently is.

There is some growth that will be permanently pulled up to mainline, and regionals will probably still be a little smaller, but there are so many markets that just can’t support anything bigger than RJ service.
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Old 11-02-2022, 02:53 PM
  #2403  
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Yes Covid caused a lot of early retirements, heck I was one of them. But there are still a LOT more retirements happening for a long time. As you say the scramble might not be as frantic, but getting people to stay in a job is important for all airlines to be viable. And yes there are markets that can only support RJ sized planes, but I don't see the pay rates coming back down to what they were any time soon. If they're paying similar wages to fly an E175 to a 73 or A320, there is no reason to keep the flying separate from mainline. Of course that's just my opinion. If I could have said where this Industry would go over the last 30 years, my career choices for airline and bases ,moving across the country, would have been wildly different.
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Old 11-03-2022, 06:49 AM
  #2404  
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Originally Posted by DMH1967 View Post
Yes Covid caused a lot of early retirements, heck I was one of them. But there are still a LOT more retirements happening for a long time. As you say the scramble might not be as frantic, but getting people to stay in a job is important for all airlines to be viable. And yes there are markets that can only support RJ sized planes, but I don't see the pay rates coming back down to what they were any time soon. If they're paying similar wages to fly an E175 to a 73 or A320, there is no reason to keep the flying separate from mainline. Of course that's just my opinion. If I could have said where this Industry would go over the last 30 years, my career choices for airline and bases ,moving across the country, would have been wildly different.
Again, you aren’t looking at the BIG picture. It’s not just the pilots, which are obviously a big expense, but it’s EVERY employee in the regional model that saves money. As long as some bean counters see that the sum of the model saves money, it will remain.

And those LOT of retirements that everyone talks about ARE being mitigated. They just can’t be in this short of time. Bottom line is the industry F’d this whole thing up by taking government money and paying people to retire instead of remain current. It will take about 24 months for that whole pipeline to refill. Higher wages overall plus all the sponsored flight program to bring a wider variety of people into flying. This whole thing is an ECON 101 supply and demand example.
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Old 11-04-2022, 03:14 PM
  #2405  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
That begs the questions that many have been wondering. Are those FOs “highly qualified” but not at the mins for captain, or were they allowing those that wanted to sit right set for a while to get the feel of the company and or plane before being forced to the left seat? Or did they actually throw some cadets or other off the street FOs in the class?
Of the 40 that started class this past week on 10/31:
- 1 cadet
- majority were all seasoned pilots with extensive backgrounds in airline, corporate and military. Minus the cadet, first 10 or so individuals easily over 10k TT each. I believe the #2 pilot behind the cadet has something like 25k TT.
- At least 2 legacy pilots. One retired Delta, only 2ish years from 65. I believe the other is from United? Yes, 'interesting' to see these individuals.
The remaining were mostly from other regionals and 135 outfits. A good number of former ExpressJet folks.
The bottom 4 or 5 I think have less than 500i-700sh 121.436 qualifying time. I recall the last individual coming straight from the military and bringing the maximum 500 hours allowed by 121.436(c)

As for the base bidding, several of the higher seniority individuals bid FO in ORD because that is where they want to be based (they live in Chicago or that general region, etc), even if it means sitting right seat. still getting CA longevity pay and that's the bottom line for these folks. The remaining likely, as you said, want to sit right seat to feel out the operations and/or knock off any 121 rust then wait for a displacement to the left seat. We were told those individuals, that are captain qualified but bid FO, will be trained and checked as DECs (including the LCM and DNR class for CAs), complete IOE in the left seat (with some right seat time), and including a fed ride and line check. Some time before the 6th month mark, they will be displaced to the left seat at the flick of a switch because they already have their fed ride and line check. This would avoid having to come back to the school house for another training cycle.
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Old 11-04-2022, 09:16 PM
  #2406  
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Originally Posted by chirrut View Post
Of the 40 that started class this past week on 10/31:
- 1 cadet
- majority were all seasoned pilots with extensive backgrounds in airline, corporate and military. Minus the cadet, first 10 or so individuals easily over 10k TT each. I believe the #2 pilot behind the cadet has something like 25k TT.
- At least 2 legacy pilots. One retired Delta, only 2ish years from 65. I believe the other is from United? Yes, 'interesting' to see these individuals.
The remaining were mostly from other regionals and 135 outfits. A good number of former ExpressJet folks.
The bottom 4 or 5 I think have less than 500i-700sh 121.436 qualifying time. I recall the last individual coming straight from the military and bringing the maximum 500 hours allowed by 121.436(c)

As for the base bidding, several of the higher seniority individuals bid FO in ORD because that is where they want to be based (they live in Chicago or that general region, etc), even if it means sitting right seat. still getting CA longevity pay and that's the bottom line for these folks. The remaining likely, as you said, want to sit right seat to feel out the operations and/or knock off any 121 rust then wait for a displacement to the left seat. We were told those individuals, that are captain qualified but bid FO, will be trained and checked as DECs (including the LCM and DNR class for CAs), complete IOE in the left seat (with some right seat time), and including a fed ride and line check. Some time before the 6th month mark, they will be displaced to the left seat at the flick of a switch because they already have their fed ride and line check. This would avoid having to come back to the school house for another training cycle.
Thanks, that helps with the "where are they coming from" question asked in another thread. I was also curious.
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Old 11-05-2022, 12:49 PM
  #2407  
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How long is going to take for a new FO to get MIA?
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Old 11-05-2022, 05:13 PM
  #2408  
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Originally Posted by av02 View Post
How long is going to take for a new FO to get MIA?
All FO seniorities are with a few month of each other. Bids are usually announced at the end of the quarter and close/run/posted the beginning of the quarter a few weeks later. BUT, the last vacancy was a month early, with the 145 displacement. The next one may or may not be early. Likely able to get to base of choice within a bid cycle or two, depending on vacancies and back fills. Back fills are unposted openings (vacancies) created by movement. In this case FOs moving to captain. Depending on the staffing level the company wants, it may or may not back fill all of those “ghost” vacancies.
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Old 11-06-2022, 03:25 AM
  #2409  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
The industry is cyclical. This cycle won’t last, which is why AAG was willing to throw the money at it that they did and have the 50% pay premium only through Aug 2023. In 12 to 16 or so months, the majors will be caught up on the hiring deficit that was caused by the Covid early retirements. Majors will go back to not hiring pilots without TPIC unless they have some “special” qualification and pilots will go back to needing those jobs that regionals have. You have to look at the BIG picture. Part of that is looking beyond JUST the pilots. The regional model saves money.

There was a graphic that I wished I had saved because I can’t find it. It was from one of the industry hiring groups, but it PERFECTLY showed the number of pilots that retired early because of Covid and retirements verses hiring and what the curve looked like to get the rosters filled again. Baring any major recession, which will only reduce the time frame, major hiring will be caught up by sometime in 2023. And for those that argue there are still a lot of retirements on the horizon, I emphasize CAUGHT UP. There will still be significant hiring, just not the mad scramble there currently is.

There is some growth that will be permanently pulled up to mainline, and regionals will probably still be a little smaller, but there are so many markets that just can’t support anything bigger than RJ service.
The 50% pay premium goes to August 31, 2024 before “potential extension as needed.”
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Old 11-06-2022, 05:15 AM
  #2410  
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Originally Posted by av02 View Post
How long is going to take for a new FO to get MIA?
Well, I was awarded one of the 12 MIA spots in FO new hire training. I have no idea why they gave me that, because they displaced the bottom 22 of us off the list and sent us to ORD. MIA is very senior right now, and it’s a small base compared to DFW.

In my two months there, I saw zero movement on the FO seniority list, so I think I’m gonna stay in ORD or go to DFW until I can line hold MIA.

I would not expect them to offer MIA to any new hires for the next year at least, unless some major changes happen. It’s just very stagnant.
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