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Tyrion 05-30-2020 11:02 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3066952)
This was going to happen with the pilot shortage in another year or so. The passenger shortage from COVID came sooner.

CPA flying ALWAYS has a profit margin built in for the contract carrier. Envoy, PSA and PDT do not need to have that 8-10% extra cost. It may be a little lower or higher these days, I'm a bit out of the loop on the CPA contract stuff. The lowest I've heard it being was 6% back around 2009.

I'd say 6% of the $93 million Envoy generated in profits during bad years is a sizable sum that is better in AAG coffers than Mesa's.

How does Envoy generate profits? We don't even generate revenue.

Cujo665 05-30-2020 11:35 AM


Originally Posted by Tyrion (Post 3067093)
How does Envoy generate profits? We don't even generate revenue.

During the bankruptcy they had to open their books. (computer records really) Envoy consistently earns them around $100M a year. The 10 year low was around $75M and the high was around $114M, IIRC.

Regardless if AA does the flight, or AE does the flight, the profit ends up back at AAG. You better believe they know exactly where the money comes from, or goes to. In many of the years AA ran at a loss, while AE ran at an - on paper - profit. The combined from all revenue streams was still negative. At the time of the bankruptcy, AA had a negative cash flow, and AE had a $93M profit that year.

Tyrion 05-30-2020 12:24 PM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3067112)
During the bankruptcy they had to open their books. (computer records really) Envoy consistently earns them around $100M a year. The 10 year low was around $75M and the high was around $114M, IIRC.

Regardless if AA does the flight, or AE does the flight, the profit ends up back at AAG. You better believe they know exactly where the money comes from, or goes to. In many of the years AA ran at a loss, while AE ran at an - on paper - profit. The combined from all revenue streams was still negative. At the time of the bankruptcy, AA had a negative cash flow, and AE had a $93M profit that year.

Wasn't that also the time that they were trying to sell Eagle? On paper, or on computer, it doesn't really mean much. If AE, Envoy whatever were really profitable, AAG wouldn't be outsourcing that flying to various 3rd parties. Skywest turns a profit because they have customers (AA, Delta, United, Alaska). They had over a $3B market cap before corona because of it. Envoy is just a line item. Our revenue (on paper) is whatever AAG wants it to be.

ClappedOut145 05-30-2020 12:32 PM


Originally Posted by Varsity (Post 3067012)
Which FB page? I don't see it.

Their pilot page was talking about it. If one knows how to use airportal it appears that Republic will be flying to ATL, CLE, DTW, IND, MEM, MSP, OMA, RIC SDF, & XNA from ORD. Hopefully, they are just pushed over to L20-24 and left out on the stinger.

Tyrion 05-30-2020 12:44 PM


Originally Posted by ClappedOut145 (Post 3067148)
Their pilot page was talking about it. If one knows how to use airportal it appears that Republic will be flying to ATL, CLE, DTW, IND, MEM, MSP, OMA, RIC SDF, & XNA from ORD. Hopefully, they are just pushed over to L20-24 and left out on the stinger.

Probably just being moved up from MIA since AAG is already paying for that flying, but there is not enough demand in MIA to keep them busy. When MIA traffic returns to normal, I'd suspect that Republic will be sent back down there.

But seriously 05-30-2020 12:57 PM

If one knows how to use airportal it appears that Republic will be flying to ATL, CLE, DTW, IND, MEM, MSP, OMA, RIC SDF, & XNA from ORD

A lot of those are 145 markets. I can’t imagine demand dictating an up gauge just yet.

AAG planning is either super secret geniuses, or blind monkeys throwing darts.

Tpinks 05-30-2020 02:03 PM


Originally Posted by But seriously (Post 3067170)
If one knows how to use airportal it appears that Republic will be flying to ATL, CLE, DTW, IND, MEM, MSP, OMA, RIC SDF, & XNA from ORD

A lot of those are 145 markets. I can’t imagine demand dictating an up gauge just yet.

AAG planning is either super secret geniuses, or blind monkeys throwing darts.

I truly believe 65 seat 170’s are coming... it’s just a matter of time. If everything is still on track, which was likely Early to mid 2021. When that happens there will be a shuffle, this could be an early shuffle like my earlier post.

uavking 05-30-2020 08:22 PM


Originally Posted by But seriously (Post 3067170)
If one knows how to use airportal it appears that Republic will be flying to ATL, CLE, DTW, IND, MEM, MSP, OMA, RIC SDF, & XNA from ORD

A lot of those are 145 markets. I can’t imagine demand dictating an up gauge just yet.

AAG planning is either super secret geniuses, or blind monkeys throwing darts.

All of those destinations were long time CRJ, and now E75, destinations for Envoy. Many of those cities need two cabin ships for premium travelers. This is indicative of a shift in where our E75 go, but where to? Also, how are we going to fit our existing E75 fleet in ORD if all these Republic ships come in needing the same gates (since we’re not going to fit over on G)? All interesting questions...

BigZ 05-30-2020 08:35 PM


Originally Posted by Tyrion (Post 3067159)
Probably just being moved up from MIA since AAG is already paying for that flying, but there is not enough demand in MIA to keep them busy. When MIA traffic returns to normal, I'd suspect that Republic will be sent back down there.

That appears to be the case

pitchattitude 05-30-2020 09:37 PM


Originally Posted by uavking (Post 3067379)
All of those destinations were long time CRJ, and now E75, destinations for Envoy. Many of those cities need two cabin ships for premium travelers. This is indicative of a shift in where our E75 go, but where to? Also, how are we going to fit our existing E75 fleet in ORD if all these Republic ships come in needing the same gates (since we’re not going to fit over on G)? All interesting questions...

If this is truly flying that mainline has previously done, there are a lot of empty gates H and K.


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