rickair7777

The "real" flow had nothing to do with what pilots wanted, except as bait

THKooj

Wrong, that flow train has only temporarily pulled into the station. The engine is still running and it's ready to get back out on the tracks ASAP. Just because you are with the "union" now doesn't mean you know everything or have access to all the data.

ClappedOut145

I think you're going to see a lot of people bail on this place when Frontier and Spirit begin to hire. Waiting for a magical flow just burned a lot of pilots who aren't going to wait for this ship to sink when it hits the next iceberg.

Cujo665

The “flow train” is living off the reputation it built from 2009 until 2013ish.
one half of every AA new hire class had to come from Envoy. Those few years they actually sent over 60% of AA new hires from Envoy. After that they started throttling it to 30 then 25 a month, with no make-up requirement for 50%.
when it restarts it will shortly drop even lower per month.

Even if they stay at 20 a month, it’s 10 years to get through 2500 guys.
Even if attrition bumps it up to 30 leaving a month, it’s a 7 long year flow.

stop lying about how great flow is. Places like Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Jetblue, the legacies, Fedex/UPS, Kalitta, Omni & ATI will all be hiring, and the average 2 year regional guy will be competitive when this all restarts. Be years into a real seniority list making real money puts them into the left seat years ahead of waiting to flow to AA. If they live near an LCC base they’d be foolish not to go. Even if they do want Delta or United... who’s getting hired first. An LCC Guy flying A320’s or the regional guy?

get out of the regionals at your first chance. Unless AA is you’re one and only destination choice.

JonGoodsell764

The point of FLOW is to dangle a carrot that doesn't exist in front of young impressionable college students by showing them a half baked slideshow depicting a shiny new 175 next to a 787 and giving them a lanyard that says AA on it. Don't worry, the abuse you suffer on the clapped out 145 that you'll actually end up flying combined with a crap contract and crap work rules will only be temporary as you'll soon be captaining a wide body jet across the pond. Sprinkle in a few bozo social media influencers with feel good music showing how awesome it is to fly your bucket of bolts 5 times a day back and forth to Charleston WV to your min rest overnight and management has all they need. Hook line and sinker. Don't worry though, the recruiter told you 5.5 years and you'll be at mainline and they certainly were not lying!

Now as for why anyone would drink that thick pitcher of kool aid and snake oil..not sure. You'd have to ask somebody who actually fell for it.

THKooj

You're twisting the facts. Nobody and I mean NOBODY could have predicted this pandemic that has affected every. single. carrier. The flow is on pause until traffic returns which should be in the 1st to 2nd quarter timeframe with the rollout of the vaccine. Once that first pilot flows, then a brand new hire would be able to calculate his or her 5.5 year flow from that date. Anyone there before would subtract the time at Envoy until Covid and then restart the clock once hiring begins to also get the 5.5 year flow. I'm telling you AA is innovative. So, tell me why United and Delta don't have flows?

Excargodog

Seriously? Who are you trying to kid? Let’s assume that AA actually makes it without bankruptcy, despite a huge corporate debt and their last bond sale requiring a 12% yield to get takers. IF the second PSP comes through, that MIGHT happen. But as their existing bonds come due they are going to have to refinance that debt, refinance at 10-12% debt that was originally at 2.5-3%, and with the used aircraft market for airliners tanking worldwide the aircraft used as equity are now much reduced in value, which will insure those rates will be higher. In the meantime, the AA fleet has been cut back by a lot of aircraft. The entire (20) E-190 fleet, the entire 767 and 757 fleet, and all 24 of the A330s. That causes a huge reduction in their need for pilots. So IF they survive, AFTER they’ve gotten enough new aircraft to bring in all the pilots they already have on furlough, IF business picks up and IF they can manage to service their debt load, THEN AND ONLY THEN can they actually buy the aircraft they have on order that they have now deferred, and then and only then will flow recommence, allowing the pilots of the three wholly owneds to compete for slots against OTS hires and about 2000 retiring and separating military pilots.

Rickair7777 is right. The flow isn’t QUITE a scam, but it’s sort of a desperate last chance to back into a major by people with no chance of getting in any other way.

ClappedOut145

You are so full of it. Say the flow hadn't stopped. It is a ratio-based flow after the L10-11 group is gone and all depends on how many pilots are on property and how many AA hires. Per Letter 18-01, the Voy gets 5 flows for the top 480 pilots, and then one flow per 125 pilots thereafter.

Say there are 2300 pilots on property, 2300 pilots - 480 top pilots =1820 remaining / 125 = 14.56 + 5 = 20 flows per month.

We know that the top 200 won't flow, so there are 2100 pilots who would flow if they waited.

2100 pilots / 20 flows per month = 105 months from hire to flow.

Now we all know that not everyone will wait out the flow, so you can take a year off if you want. That leaves you with 7.75 years from indoc to freedom.

DELTA and United don't have flow agreements because they read your posts and want to avoid having people like you slip through the cracks and fly their planes.

havick206

I noticed you totally ignored my post on a different thread pointing out that your logic holds no water. In 2016/17/18 envoy literally hired anyone with a pulse. Puts your “highly vetted” argument out the window.

Flow is simply to keep pilots in their regionals, nothing more.

you also fail to mention the flow is throttled back and will continue to do so, especially as the pilot group size shrinks.

Also, you were hired yourself in your so called “unvettes and unwashed” era. So what does that make you? Someone who doesn’t even work for AA anymore technically.

pitchattitude

Annddd, just as predicted, cue THKoolAid’s lies and false prophecies.