What’s the point of FLOW?
12-30-2020, 04:29 PM
#111
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Not saying it is worthless, and yes, some people who would not otherwise EVER make it to the majors might make it because of flow. But hasn’t AA limited it to a max of 15 pilots a month? And I thought Envoy had about 2500 people on their own seniority list, so what the newbie deciding on a regional is actually looking at is this:
Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.
Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.
But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.
Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.
Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.
But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.
12-30-2020, 06:43 PM
#112
Banned
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 459
Originally Posted by THKooj
We had a 5.5 year flow before all this. On the other side it will still be 5.5 years MINUS the time spent from when the flow stopped until it restarts.
12-30-2020, 07:03 PM
#113
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,970
Originally Posted by Finessed
When American Airlines inevitably goes under and everything is wiped out, including the flow, will you finally give it up?
There are a lot of things that can be done in Chapter 11 reorganization to defer bond payments, convert bonds to preferred stock, restructure or cut wages for employees (it has happened before). I predict Chapter 11, which is not even a certainty, a much more likely scenario that Chapter 7 liquidation.
12-30-2020, 07:07 PM
#114
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,549
Originally Posted by THKooj
We had a 5.5 year flow before all this. On the other side it will still be 5.5 years MINUS the time spent from when the flow stopped until it restarts.
12-30-2020, 08:39 PM
#115
Banned
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 459
Originally Posted by TransWorld
So you are predicting AA will declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which means liquidation and going out of business?
There are a lot of things that can be done in Chapter 11 reorganization to defer bond payments, convert bonds to preferred stock, restructure or cut wages for employees (it has happened before). I predict Chapter 11, which is not even a certainty, a much more likely scenario that Chapter 7 liquidation.
There are a lot of things that can be done in Chapter 11 reorganization to defer bond payments, convert bonds to preferred stock, restructure or cut wages for employees (it has happened before). I predict Chapter 11, which is not even a certainty, a much more likely scenario that Chapter 7 liquidation.
Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.
12-31-2020, 01:55 AM
#116
Banned
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Position: 24d
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by Finessed
They have to much debt along with cash burn to convince any judge into chapter 11. A full recovery by June-July would save them initially, and if needed they could file chapter 11.
Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.
Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.
12-31-2020, 02:32 AM
#118
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,465
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Not saying it is worthless, and yes, some people who would not otherwise EVER make it to the majors might make it because of flow. But hasn’t AA limited it to a max of 15 pilots a month? And I thought Envoy had about 2500 people on their own seniority list, so what the newbie deciding on a regional is actually looking at is this:
Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.
Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.
But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.
Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.
Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.
But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.
And to the aa blowhard, no one as EVER flowed in 5.5 years from here. That is a straight up lie.
12-31-2020, 02:45 AM
#119
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,662
Originally Posted by THKooj
We had a 5.5 year flow before all this. On the other side it will still be 5.5 years MINUS the time spent from when the flow stopped until it restarts.
Originally Posted by Finessed
When American Airlines inevitably goes under and everything is wiped out, including the flow, will you finally give it up?
Originally Posted by Finessed
They have to much debt along with cash burn to convince any judge into chapter 11. A full recovery by June-July would save them initially, and if needed they could file chapter 11.
See above
Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.
See above
Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.
Originally Posted by rld1k
It was 20 a month not 15
12-31-2020, 06:14 AM
#120
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Semi-Retired...
Posts: 3,136
Originally Posted by Cyio
Who was it that flowed in 5.5 years? There were some projected flows at 5.5, but it never happened to the best of my knowledge. Keep in mind, that 5.5 year flow projection was during what was arguably the best time for that program, a scenario that no longer exists.
I would find it very unlikely that the government would let AA just close its doors one day due to chapter 7.
Eh, you are almost like THkooj, just on the opposite side of the spectrum. As for the rest, see above.
It was 20 a month you are correct, but it did drop down to 15 and could have gone lower once the last of the Sam P group all got out. They did a fine job of negotiating their way out faster while leaving the rest of us with an algebra equation that only helps the company. I believe we can flow as low as 5, all of which require AA to be hiring.
I would find it very unlikely that the government would let AA just close its doors one day due to chapter 7.
Eh, you are almost like THkooj, just on the opposite side of the spectrum. As for the rest, see above.
It was 20 a month you are correct, but it did drop down to 15 and could have gone lower once the last of the Sam P group all got out. They did a fine job of negotiating their way out faster while leaving the rest of us with an algebra equation that only helps the company. I believe we can flow as low as 5, all of which require AA to be hiring.
Exactly, the flow earned its worth when 50% of every new hire at AA came from Eagle/Envoy. A few of those year we even got 60%. People saw that and the word on the street for new pilots was if you weren't friends, family, astronaut, then Eaglevoy was your best way to keep AA as a possible career destination. You could still apply to Delta, United, Fedex, UPS like everybody else, but going to an AAG regional kept AA in play as a backup.
For the ones who never networked, never attended job fairs, never did anything to advance their own career, never did check airman or anything else then it became their primary plan to get to a legacy. The ones who proactively tried to get up and out saw many FO's leave for greener pastures before even upgrading at Eagle.
Lots of guys went to Spirit and Jetblue, and a few to Allegiant and Frontier. All of which are comparable career stops, and by getting in earlier rather than later, they upgraded to Captain sooner and avoided these furloughs.
Flow now is a mere shadow of what it once was. Getting to flow after 9-10 years isn't that great anymore. Network, attend job fairs, and get out at your first opportunity.
It really is amazing looking back at how lousy those regional companies treat their employees. Fighting to get real improvement just gets them to target you, it's not worth it. Focus your energy into getting out of the regionals at your earliest opportunity. Who's Delta, United, Fedex, UPS going to hire first; the regional guy or an LCC/ACMI guy with Airbus/Boeing or global experience? Do the math.
Keep flow as a backup, but don't stop trying to move up and out. The hiring will be picking back up sooner than the doom and gloom sayers claim. Envoy is a decent regional with good training producing a known product. You guys are in a good position.
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