There are so many “experts” on here barking out data and “facts” that “prove” their position. Yet anyone with half a brain knows that data and facts can be skewed, misleading, misrepresented, and cherry-picked to support a given argument or position. Statistics class 101 teaches that lesson. I’ve got no beef with opinions but when fools that aren’t specifically employed to to be analyzing and making such statements, continue to say they are right, my eyes roll and middle finger extends. To me, egging someone to engage in a futile debate that is un-winnable (either side) is laughable. A wise person knows that they DON’T know everything. Any little b*** on here that says they do needs to stop barking, get off the lap, go scratch at the door, and have lady take her for walk to do some business, because they’re full of it. Take the L (leash)


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What you just described, and 10 months worth of early retirements, just described a delay of when the big retirement wave will be back in full swing. Delay, not elimination. It will still be happening in a few years. Age 65 is still going to happen over the next decade for close to 2/3 of the pilots.

Incidentally, the aircraft AA got rid of were all in their plans to send to the desert. Most are over 20 years. They just moved them up a few years. They are to be replaced by those on order that have been differed. Check back in a few years down the line, they will have taken them.

 

Absolutely. A DELAY. A delay caused by a smaller (and more efficient) fleet and a smaller pilot group and a large number of furloughed pilots that will INEVITABLY cause a massive slowdown in the flow. We aren’t talking about AA mainline at the top of the seniority list which barring AA going Chapter 7 was always going to be OK, we are talking about the guy at the bottom, the newbie deciding on which regional CJO to take. Is a smaller mainline fleet and 1500 furloughed pilots between any possibility of ANYONE flowing going to make a difference in the inherent value of flow to that person? Oh H€|| yeah.

Denying that is as stupid as denying a strong headwind on a long leg is going to affect your fuel consumption. Inclined Plane can impugn the motives of someone bringing those FACTS up all you want, but it doesn’t change the reality.

 

Yes any discussion of the merits of flow is really only useful for those who have not committed yet (or are maybe only a couple years in).

If you're already a few years in might as well keep all the apps updated, and count flow as a backup if nobody else calls.

 

Seems to me that you're just jealous of anyone working at Envoy because they are American. Let me guess. You either (a) couldn't get hired at Envoy or (b) got fired from Envoy. Either way it's obvious that you have an axe to grind here. Your predictions of the flow are so far off the mark it's almost funny. Yes, some of the fleet has been parked but that was planned far before 2020. Quite a few have taken advantage of the option to retire early and just accelerated the need for pilots as demand recovers in 2021. It's well documented that American has the largest number of retirements of the legacies and many of these early outs weren't even scheduled until late 2021 and beyond. I might suggest therapy or just getting out of aviation altogether. Carrying this jealousy around isn't good for anyone.

 

Not jealous of anybody hired at Envoy a bit, nor of anyone hired at American. If I were working at American right now I’d have been furloughed and now having to decide if I needed to leave whatever job I had been working to go back to AA for the three months of additional PSP or just continue with whatever job I’d found after being furloughed still over a year off. Generally speaking, nobody gets furloughed if management thinks they can gainfully employ them in the next year, and nobody is even pretending they are going to get those currently recalled from furlough because of PSP 2.0 current - not with the training churn already generated by retiring 95 airframes.

https://simpleflying.com/american-fleet-simplification/


So I’d be looking at being on furlough for well over a year, since I would have been at the bottom of that group, and realistically not likely to be called back for a year and a half or more.

But again, you can try to impugn my motives or psychoanalyze me all you want, it costs me nothing. What you can’t do is refute the facts and the facts are that the fleet changes and furloughs are going to slow flow even more, making it less valuable as a recruiting tool for the wholly owneds.

 

To add onto this, by the time Flow "could" be useful again hiring will be ramping back up to be fast and furious even more than it was before Covid. The value of flow to somebody not on property yet will be almost zilch.

 

I have to disagree. A bunch of people just flowed to AA. They weren’t stifled from going anywhere else, they just couldn’t get on. I know the majors were all hiring, but there were still only 2-3000 spots per year at the peak, and that’s just not enough for everyone who wants one. Having flow as a backup is not worthless. Hundreds of WO pilots a year got to the majors using it and there’s no guarantee they could have gotten on when they did without it. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

Not saying it is worthless, and yes, some people who would not otherwise EVER make it to the majors might make it because of flow. But hasn’t AA limited it to a max of 15 pilots a month? And I thought Envoy had about 2500 people on their own seniority list, so what the newbie deciding on a regional is actually looking at is this:

Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.

Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.

But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.

 

I concur with much of what you said. You have to realize that he doesn't work at American Airlines, has an axe to grind and is just a flat out hater. Flow was designed by AAG to incorporate Envoy as a true partner so that when a cadet is hired, they no longer have to worry about interviewing ever again. Pretty nice concept right?

As you mentioned, a bunch of people just flowed to AA and they weren't stifled from going anywhere else. They didn't WANT to go anywhere else.