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Could flow stop?

Old 07-21-2018, 11:14 PM
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Default Could flow stop?

How exactly is the flow protected? Say I get hired at PSA and a couple years down the road something happens (economic downturn, etc). Is there something in writing stating if x happens AA doesnít have to keep flowing pilots? Would PSA just furlough the pilots before they reach their time to flow?
Or would AA just flow them and furlough the flowing pilots somehow?
Just trying to figure out the dynamics of such event.

I keep reading two things of advice over again about regionals.
1. Live in base (PSA for DAY or Republic for IND, PSA flow is a plus)
2. Go to a regional that if something happens you wouldnít mind staying at for an extended period of time. (Big strike against PSA for me, and would choose Republic)

Again, as someone who is not there yet I have limited knowledge on how exactly it is written in the contract or how it works so sorry if Iím completely off.

Another thing that I keep reading on various forums is this thought from some that if you depend on the flow you are some sort of hack and it shouldnít take you that long to get into a Major so go to any regional just to get hours. Maybe so but the way the industry has been in the past I feel there are no sure things.

Where is this thought coming from that going to a Major is so easy now? Are people thinking that itís something that is just going to happen because airlines are going to be so desperate? Maybe a I am the hack that doesnít believe it will ever get that bad so I am putting the flow in my back pocket if possible. But if the flow can be stopped that changes the dynamic a bit.
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Old 07-22-2018, 05:03 AM
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Flow can be stopped, changed, made functionally useless, whatever. Which regional is the good place changes year to year and the whole thing rides on the economy and gas prices. If you can predict those things, play the market, donít worry about flying.

Living in base will make your life much easier. If you can, go to that place
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Old 07-22-2018, 05:22 AM
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I guess my view would be that you should have the confidence in yourself to try and be hired outside the flow. If youíre solely relying on the flow then someone has to start thinking maybe you have some skeletons that would get you turned away at a traditional interview. By no means is getting on a major easy or guaranteed, and like you said itís nice to have sitting in your back pocket.
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Old 07-22-2018, 05:41 AM
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If AA isnt hiring then pilots don't flow.
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Old 07-22-2018, 05:41 AM
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If there is an economic downturn, there will be downward pressure on wages across the board. Todayís regional with a great contract and pay could just as easily start being whipsawed tomorrow.

That being said, look at the retirements at AA alone. Starting next year it becomes staggering and doesnít really start to slow down for almost a decade. I was able to have a peak at some of the internal numbers for the looming retirements at AA just yesterday as a matter of fact. They are accounting for an increase by 10-15% of pilots electing to retire before 65 too. Not to mention the demographics of many of the pilots who have been flowing / being hired over the past couple years (40-45+). It would take some sort of cataclysmic event to slow the roll now. Even an economic downturn doesnít account for 1,000 pilots /year retiring.

Itís similar to what has happened at PSA since 2014... Think of all the LCA positions that will be available. Management positions if you so choose. Positions within APA or the Safety Department or the Training Department. Anyone getting on at AA in the next couple years will experience almost unbeatable career potential not seen at a legacy in decades. Those who are looking further down the road need not worry either. The retirements and movement are just one piece of the puzzle at every single carrier. In another year or two nothing will look the same.
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Old 07-22-2018, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Making it Count View Post
Go to a regional that if something happens you wouldnít mind staying at for an extended period of time. (Big strike against PSA for me, and would choose Republic)
I laughed quite hard at this...It's slowly becoming true.

But can you imagine a pilot making that statement a few years ago!?!?!
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Old 07-22-2018, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyingSlowly View Post
I laughed quite hard at this...It's slowly becoming true.

But can you imagine a pilot making that statement a few years ago!?!?!
That's the thing though, what will we be saying two years from now
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Old 07-22-2018, 10:03 AM
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The flow continues so long as American is hiring. If American stops hiring, the flow stops flowing.

However, if American stops hiring the industry is likely in trouble and you will be extremely hard pressed to be getting a mainline job anywhere. Also, if the flow were to end for any other reason, you’re in the exact same position you would’ve been at a regional without flow.

As you may know, Dayton is a very junior base and almost certainly here for the long haul, so that’s good for the circumstances you described.

That said, Republic has a lot going for it right now. I would not write off the flow (as people often do), but I would not write off RAH either.
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Old 07-22-2018, 10:13 AM
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Something to consider is your end goal, if AA is your top choice your odds are better getting on with them as it is difficult to get with them outside of the flow. The flow is a great tool to have in the back pocket.

With that being said, RAH does have some Midwest bases that can be obtained and a good contract with good soft pay that I wish we had here at PSA. But if you live in Dayton, I would go PSA.


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Old 07-22-2018, 11:13 AM
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I was just gathering info to try to make the most informed decision at this point. I realize everything could be different and understand the reason for the laughter about choosing RAH over PSA now, knowing that the industry has changed on a dime it seems.

Only skeletons, as someone mentioned, are checkride failures while getting both fixed wing and heli ratings (CFI/II in both). I almost wish I didnít have my heli ratings and that would cut 2 fails off my resume, but it is what it is. Nothing I can do about them now. I have confidence in my ability but if I get weeded out of the initial interview due to failures, my ability then doesnít mean squat because of primary checkride screw ups. Just need the chance to prove my ability over time of passing 121 checks at regionals.

AA isnít really my number 1 choice. Itís probably number 3 after Fedex (IND base) and Delta (just because it seems like they got there stuff together).

I live 1 hr from Dayton and 2 hrs from CVG so PSA really is my best option. IND is 1.5 hrs.

Either way its a good time to be a pilot. I am grateful for that.

Thanks everyone for your response.
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