Originally Posted by Cujo665

Exactly, the flow earned its worth when 50% of every new hire at AA came from Eagle/Envoy. A few of those year we even got 60%. People saw that and the word on the street for new pilots was if you weren't friends, family, astronaut, then Eaglevoy was your best way to keep AA as a possible career destination. You could still apply to Delta, United, Fedex, UPS like everybody else, but going to an AAG regional kept AA in play as a backup.

For the ones who never networked, never attended job fairs, never did anything to advance their own career, never did check airman or anything else then it became their primary plan to get to a legacy. The ones who proactively tried to get up and out saw many FO's leave for greener pastures before even upgrading at Eagle.

Lots of guys went to Spirit and Jetblue, and a few to Allegiant and Frontier. All of which are comparable career stops, and by getting in earlier rather than later, they upgraded to Captain sooner and avoided these furloughs.

Flow now is a mere shadow of what it once was. Getting to flow after 9-10 years isn't that great anymore. Network, attend job fairs, and get out at your first opportunity.

It really is amazing looking back at how lousy those regional companies treat their employees. Fighting to get real improvement just gets them to target you, it's not worth it. Focus your energy into getting out of the regionals at your earliest opportunity. Who's Delta, United, Fedex, UPS going to hire first; the regional guy or an LCC/ACMI guy with Airbus/Boeing or global experience? Do the math.

Keep flow as a backup, but don't stop trying to move up and out. The hiring will be picking back up sooner than the doom and gloom sayers claim. Envoy is a decent regional with good training producing a known product. You guys are in a good position.

Originally Posted by THKooj

Then why were you all over this forum in 2015 and 2016 selling 2.5/6? Why in 2017 and 2018 you were recommending "PDT OR ENY" as your best bet?

Originally Posted by Cujo665

The ones who proactively tried to get up and out saw many FO's leave for greener pastures before even upgrading at Eagle.

Originally Posted by at6d

I did it in 2007 after 7 years as FO. Forty others resigned out of DFW the same month I did.

Originally Posted by THKooj

Then why were you all over this forum in 2015 and 2016 selling 2.5/6? Why in 2017 and 2018 you were recommending "PDT OR ENY" as your best bet?

Originally Posted by Finessed

They have to much debt along with cash burn to convince any judge into chapter 11. A full recovery by June-July would save them initially, and if needed they could file chapter 11.

Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.

Originally Posted by Cujo665

I wasn't. What I said was their math was correct, that those hired in that time period would fall under the higher rate flow, and that the retirement numbers alone from AA, and Envoy getting 50% of every class meant everybody on property could flow in the time period they advertised. That if you weren't on the Friends, Family, Astronaut plan, and weren't networking your butt off then the flow was a good deal.

Getting hired after 2018 will put you in the groups with much smaller flow rates by comparison, and the opportunity for a 5.5 year flow was long gone.... which is why I stopped making that recommendation based upon flow to new pilots. It remained a decent choice due to the worsening industry shakeup. You however continued selling flow which was then a lie.

There will be more consolidation, bankruptcies and consolidations. I'll repeat that the AAG, Skywest/Republic and Mesa are the most likely regionals to survive. I called Compass, TSA and Expressjet over a year ahead of anybody else, and folks like you made fun of me then too. How quickly you forget.

You can also look for a new regional startup by the same folks that many years ago saved Republic entering the market. As a new entry, they will have everybody on first year pay and have a significant cost advantage over the competition, and will use growth and the resulting quick upgrades to draw pilots from the bottom of many other carriers. We'll even see street Captains again at several of the regionals once the hiring picks up again.

Originally Posted by Cyio

. I believe we can flow as low as 5,

Originally Posted by Naviator

that would have been if there were only 604 pilots at Envoy. With 2000 pilots the flow would have been 17. With 2500 pilots it would have been 21. I know math is hard.

Originally Posted by Naviator

that would have been if there were only 604 pilots at Envoy. With 2000 pilots the flow would have been 17. With 2500 pilots it would have been 21. I know math is hard.