Envoy 2021: A New Hope

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08-05-2021 | 03:57 PM

#1071

Cujo665

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From: Semi-Retired...

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninerdriver

All of those vendors' UA sides (including Mesa) will outlive C5.

Republic's AA flying will outlive PDT. Based on the life of the CRJ, Republic might outlive PSA, too.

Skywest will grow in lieu of Horizon. It will grow in lieu of Alaska, for what it's worth.

1st -agree but will be smaller

2nd- agree. Very likely AA WO’s will end up consolidated

3rd- disagree.

08-05-2021 | 04:09 PM

#1072

ninerdriver

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujo665

3rd- disagree.

Curious... why? Alaska has no scope, and the Horizon C-suite has proved that it can't manage a ham sandwich, never mind an airline.

08-05-2021 | 07:05 PM

#1073

buddies8

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Sounds like Horizon mgt must be taking lessons from envoy mgt.

08-07-2021 | 09:39 AM

#1074

Cujo665

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From: Semi-Retired...

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninerdriver

Curious... why? Alaska has no scope, and the Horizon C-suite has proved that it can't manage a ham sandwich, never mind an airline.

no regionals will be growing.

08-07-2021 | 05:13 PM

#1075

TransWorld

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From: Fully Retired

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujo665

no regionals will be growing.

Unless there is a consolidation, buyout, or replacement of another regional, what you say is true. I expect several regionals to wink out in the next couple of years. If you read back far enough in my posts, I predicted this several years ago.

08-08-2021 | 01:09 AM

#1076

Cujo665

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From: Semi-Retired...

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransWorld

I called it back in 2013-2014 that this was coming. It started in mid 2015 and was about to go full tilt when Covid gave them time to regroup and restructure; they wasted the opportunity and now it’s going to be interesting once the backlog of guys that hit 1500 this past 1.5 years get sucked up, because there aren’t enough coming in behind them for all the hiring at all four 121 levels. Regional, ACMI, LCC & Legacy. It’s a staffing crunch of their own creating.
called BigSky, Lakes, TSA & Compass all over a year in advance. I do remember your posts warning folks of the same things.

08-08-2021 | 01:32 AM

#1077

havick206

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujo665

Pretty much everyone else called it too. Would you like a participation trophy?

08-08-2021 | 05:45 AM

#1078

CptnDave

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Regionals shrink, 50 seaters go away, more pilots move to legacy carriers, regionals operate 76 seaters on the same routes at lower frequency. Around the same amount of people get moved. This solves staffing issues at majors without draining all their regionals of pilots.

08-08-2021 | 09:39 AM

#1079

Cujo665

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From: Semi-Retired...

Quote:

Originally Posted by havick206

Pretty much everyone else called it too. Would you like a participation trophy?

everyone? You do realize to this day many ALPA national leaders still say there’s no shortage, right? That many managements were demanding concessions from every pilot group right up to December 2014 and insisting it wasn’t a problem in spite of the fact we told them they’d be giving raises and improving working conditions before the ink was dry on that CBA extension.
you may have been agreeing with what we were saying, but to say everybody was saying it is false. There’s still large numbers of management and even union leaders who say there’s no shortage.

08-08-2021 | 11:05 AM

#1080

TransWorld

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From: Fully Retired

Quote:

Originally Posted by havick206

Pretty much everyone else called it too. Would you like a participation trophy?

When I made the call, I had bricks and stones hurled at me on this forum. Glad to hear more and more getting on board.

What I said we would go down to 1/4 of the number of regionals (already lost 5, with 1 trying to take off again), and 1/2 the number of regional pilots (20,000 down to 10,000).

50 seaters will reduce to very few. 76 seaters will fly those routes with less frequency.

76 seaters will be replaced by main line aircraft in some services, generally less frequency.

I stand by my prediction. Will occur by mid decade.

Hold on tight, we are about to kick in the afterburners.