Agreed. We're really just talking about FOs being displaced for the purposes of this discussion and I'd be willing to bet if they did start retiring the 145s or sending them elsewhere in any way, I bet it will be a slow enough process that FOs will be upgrading out of the airplane enough to not need FO to FO seat displacements.

 

Think about the CRJ. Those were “going away” for a long time. Until it got down to the last 10 or so, they didn’t displace anybody.

 

I’ve been here for 4 years and I highly doubt I’ll see American before 2027

 

sarcasm..


//

 

Displacements from the right seat of the 145 have gone very senior through proffers.

 

2024 is (was) the year for the EMB's. That hasn't really changed from even the bankruptcy days when they had to open their books. I'm sure that part (year) has been mentioned publicly in the distant past. Not sure if I can say more due to NDA. Without a clear okay from legal, I won't go into detail. Besides, their plans do change a little over time and I'm sure it's changed some since 2016. Covid may have made that more financially feasible to do sooner, with the glut of good used aircraft on the market cheap.

Shrinking isn't the plan, replacing is. The replacing will mean displacements. The shrinking comes later from the pilot shortage.... along with consolidations, mergers, buyouts and other messy things.

 

They weren't in a pilot staffing problem at that time either.
I'd be willing to bet they will ask for an LOA giving them some relief on displacement bidding. Something like only those actually being displaced get to bypass seat locks and such.

What will you get in return? Who knows; 5 extra seats in every new hire class? Costs them nothing, helps recruiting, helps movement, helps careers. Get rid of the monthly language and just go with percentage of each new hire class. Eagle/Envoy used to be 50% of each new hire class, and that got given away. monumental loss. Tell them you want the first 50% of every new hire class position. Throw in fixing reserve too while your at it.

Knock off the behind the scenes in the dark piecemeal LOA's that are the band-aids THEY need, while doing little to nothing for the line guys. Just say NO, until you start getting stuff of substance. You've tried the piecemeal stuff the past 6 years; it hasn't worked very well.

 

What “good used aircraft” are there that can replace the 145? They have to be small RJ by scope and if ENY is going to fly them, they really have to be 170s. Not that many made and all indications are that of the nine AeroMexico had only one was in good enough condition to purchase.

Then there is the issue of a whole other company (PDT) that needs to have its aircraft replaced, but since those are at another company, they could be any plane that met scope of a small RJ.

 

You're still thinking too locally. PDT will likely become staffing fodder via consolidation for the other two as the shortage worsens. As the vendors drop (like TSA did) due to not meeting contractual completion factors that opens up that many more large RJ slots. There's other things they can do as well. Think about it a little.

 

I WAS thinking globally. That’s why I included PDT. Most people have written them off as an “also ran” that will fall by the wayside. But American has to do something with those seat capabilities.

The only vendor, singular, that could, and likely will go away, is Mesa, at the end of their contract. Skywest and Republic aren’t going anywhere.