That article makes it sound like the new narrow bodies are going to directly replace the 50 seat RJs. That’s just not the case. The plan to phase out 50 seaters is on going for all the carriers, but the time frame wasn’t really specified. They will still have what ever RJs their scope will allow. It also said United operates “hundreds of ageing A320-family jets and 737NGs” The new order is 275 aircraft, which is basically a one for one replacement of those older, smaller, less efficient versions of the same plane. Passenger seat capacity growth, but not overall fleet growth.

 

500 orders if including existing contracts. 200 are new growth and 300 are replacements of which they plan to cull 2/3rds of their 50 seat flying. That’s not looking great for the 50 seat market at United.

 

If I am an Air Wisconsin or CommutAir pilot then I am not pleased about this development.

 

I certainly agree that it doesn’t bode well for the company. This is a long term plan. If you’re already there as a captain, this is a good time and you should have already been working on an exit strategy. Definitely not a good time to go there as a new hire. The companies will slowly wither away.

More consolidation and what most people have been saying. The smaller regionals won’t survive in the long term.

 

According to Scott Kirby, their plan is to significantly reduce their RJ fleet. I believe the number he used was reducing it from 35% to 10% when all is said and done.

I don’t know if that is just happy talk to convince MilePlus members to stay loyal, but he certainly framed it as mainline replacing RJs.

 

Air Whiskey has been in trouble before. I don’t disagree with you that this is bad news for them, but Kirby already said publicly that UAL will be eliminating all of its small RJs.

No one knows the financials behind AW, but they always seem to pull an inside straight and survive. I wouldn’t be shocked if they show up flying for AA/USAir (again) in a year or two.

 

Looking at scope clauses, I don’t see anyone budging on the weight and seat limit. The economics of the 50 seat RJ is what is driving its demise. But there are just too many markets that can’t support even the smallest mainline narrow body, which is the A220 and only being flown by Delta. The United Express CRJ-550 is a stopgap as it only is viable on routes that can sell enough premium seats to pay for the same fuel burn with fewer seats. American is using used 170s to replace the 145s. There are only limited numbers of them out there. Maybe this will lead to Embraer to push out an E2 version of the 170 as it looks like seat capacity and not MGTOW is more of the limit. With the improvements on the E2 it seems like the most viable option for a plane that fits in the small RJ class.

Mesa, Republic, and Skywest all already fly United colors and E170 series aircraft. It still doesn’t help operators of 145s though. I think the cost of Air Wisconsin and GoJet to change fleet would still kill them off.

 

Well what are the chances this is so public to pressurize scope being relaxed to American scope. Then when the pilots refuse company can point to them as why the planes are cancelled. Then new hire classes cancelled. Then the pilots cave.

 

I’d say pretty slim. United pilots already make good money and they know that the economics of keeping the order are to their advantage. If the company wanted to delay or cancel, they still wouldn’t get more rj’s. Kirby knows he’s not getting scope relief, so now he’s moving forward with plan B.

 

Why would pilots care if the company 'points to them'?