Doubt they’ll be taking anyone’s flying, they’ll probably just maintain the status quo with newer planes. Now I’m not saying they don’t tank, I think they could however it’s gonna come down to recruitment. I think with the LCC’s eyeing candidates at ATP minimums is gonna drive up regional pay to compete. Some companies won’t be able to do this so people won’t want to work there, they’ll have no pilots become unreliable and lose contracts then shut their doors. Then SkyWest will take their planes and flying. Operational capacity will be maintained just with less operators.

SkyWest owns GoJets planes and has leased out aircraft to other companies before. United also owns some of SkyWest 700’s and if they want AirWis to fly them I’m sure they’ll broker some kind of deal.

If I’m not mistaken at united 50 seaters aren’t limited by scope, so maybe we see them fly the 550? I know that’s what GoJets doing to get around scope.

50 seaters not being scope restricted is kind of a misnomer. They are not limitless, the company is just allowed more than they have ever wanted. They can’t exceed 90% the number of United single aisle aircraft and they’re still part of the overall limit on block hours. GoJet isn’t getting around scope, the 550 is fully compliant. It doesn’t exceed 50 passenger seats and they certified it at a lower weight to meet the weight limit for 50 seat aircraft as defined in the UPA. Since United didn’t order a SNB, the total number of 70/76 seat aircraft is still capped and the 50 seat restrictions remain unchanged. The company can have 200+ new 550’s to replace the single class 50 seaters and still be scope compliant, the determining factors are how many 700’s are available for conversion, and how many they want.

Maxed out on 70/76 seaters. As they pull a 70 seat 700 for conversion, they add a 175 that is seat restricted to 70 seats. Anything over 50 seats is a 70/76 seat aircraft.

yes, they will be. Not today, but as the shortage worsens (like pre-Covid) their attrition will outpace hiring. Why do you think they predict wanting to be hiring 7,000 over 1.5 years?
wanting and doing are two different things.
Republic, Skywest and Mesa will downsize during the shortage. The ones like Commutair, Air Wiskey are in big trouble without serious business model changes.

Maybe, maybe not. But just to clarify, you’re saying WO’s won’t have this problem as well? So how would they not have attrition issues? Unless you’re saying WO pilots are suckers, and will wait forNever to flow?

Oh, and trust me, OO will find it’s own way to react to attrition. They could always create a “flow agreement” themselves if it gets that bad. We’ve been offered a flow before. Honestly I don’t think a “flow” is powerful enough to actually hold guys off from having their Apps in, but maybe I’m wrong?

all the WO’s are run as cost centers. Unlike contractors, that means they technically do not need to generate a profit themselves, so long as their feed to/from generates profit at the mainline. They can, and likely will be, run at a loss to increase wages, improve working conditions and work rules. Vendors can’t compete.
Then, all the WO will have their flows ramped up even more to provide a 4 year or less flow path to their mainline. The mainlines will do the majority of hiring from their WO.
once that happens you’d be a fool to go to a non-WO. Actually, it’s already time if you aren’t already in 121 to focus on WO’s. By the time you upgrade the shortage will stagnate your upgrade at the vendors.

We’ll see what the next six months have in store. Envoy still claiming a five year flow because of attrition and no indication of WILLINGNESS to increase flow. They’re also so far behind on training they couldn’t afford to do it.