lakehouse

The entire regional sector is a Ponzi scheme as the amount of people going out fArexceed those coming in. The tsa and psa models won't last forever and the second it hiccups many people will be left holding the bag.

eaglefly

That's what I said. Envoy situation specifically though is tenuous and it is in a perilous situation. If that weren't the case, they'd commit the options to you, but they didn't. Now, it seems they've got operatives in a full court press to ring a dinner bell for all pilots that will leave them hungry for many, many years.

Clearly, Envoy is desperate and if they don't get a strong stream of new hires, it will wither on the vine sooner rather then later. Besides, Envoy has several hundred senior pilots on 18-year captains scale raking in $120,000 a year (I used to be one of them). Parker would be a fool to shell that much out for pilots he doesn't have to compared to all the young pilots chasing upgrades for chump change.

With Envoy shrinking and the flow to AA likely to stop for the furloughees, I'd expect no reasonable upgrade opportunities for new-hires for a very long time, despite the fervent pitch of Envoys sales gal here.

eaglefly

Not unlike Envoy. Hey, you're in Envoy sales here as I recall.....is the diva beating your quota ?

lakehouse

I am just passing along info and helping those who want to get on.

I'm not sure how the regional industry will look in six months or a year, nor do you. One thing I've been saying for some time is desperate majors may close off the street hiring to the majors to preferred regionals. Imagine aa delta and even United did that, hey 80% of new hire slots are via this or that regional. It'll reshuffle the deck again and force some corporate and 135 guys to go into the regionals. Going forward the Onoy regionals that will survive will be those wh can reshuffle the deck. Right now it's psa and tsa but the second things move backwards that bubble will pop. Further ch11 at other places like rah are very possible as they can't fill contract, offer upgrades, or afford to pay higher.

eaglefly

I was just curious as you were asking pilots to contact you via Private Message.

Unless Envoy can stem their pilot bleeding, I fail to see how it will be a survivor. AA won't have to worry about street hiring or flows for awhile starting this Spring. Actually, what is likely here is that AA furloughees will fill our classes for at least a year starting this Spring and the US Airways side will hire off the street with a few flows there. If 100 824's make it through the gate between now and Spring, how many are left when the flow might restart in say the Summer of 2016 ?

Envoys back could easily be broken by then as more and more leave for other jobs, a trickle come in and the line to AA is no shorter then it is now. Hey, good luck. I just think a lot of things have to happen for Envoy for it to avoid serious trouble.

deepwater

As much as I despise AAG's tactics, the die is now cast and time will tell. Your scenario is plausible but I hope you are wrong. Once Parker is finished with you, we'll see soon enough what happens to ENVOY.

tunes

this will not happen any time soon

CLT Guy

It could happen in the very near future. The number of pilots willing to work at the regionals is shrinking at a pretty fast rate. The majors need to do something to attract pilots to fly the airplanes that feed them. The options for incentives are fairly limited. They have tried bonuses, but they have not really been successful. One of the things that will attract people to fly for their regionals would be the ability to advance to mainline.

Preferential hiring costs the mainline company NOTHING!!! They can still pay garbage wages at the regionals and people will line up to fly there. Heck, they could even pay less and people would do it.

Think about it this way, AAG wants to make sure that their regionals are staffed. How can they do it? What incentives can they offer? Lets say that you want to fly at American. If the only way that you could get to American would be to fly for Envoy or PSA, you would apply at Envoy or PSA. Period. If you had an AA seniority number, you wouldn't care what they paid you for the first couple of years, the schedule/benefits, etc... Your goal would be to work 5 years at the regional and then bid on that wide body slot when it opened.

tunes

with separating mil guys the majors will never give up the ability to hire them OTS.

CLT Guy

Historically, your point is valid.

There are MANY military guys at the regionals waiting for calls. In the last 6 classes at my company, we have had more than 35 military pilots. Everything from F-18's to C-5's to Harriers to Helicopter guys. They all had one thing in common - plenty of military experience and applications at all of the majors, but no calls from those majors. It seems that the current hiring people at the majors are looking for some 121 time - at least that is what the hiring departments have been telling the military guys.

Delta is probably the biggest exception, and we all know of a guy that knows a guy that got hired, but it appears to be changing in the last 6 months for some reason. And in the 80% part of ickt86's plan, it would leave a backdoor for military and others in.