All that you said is true - so long as those pilots meet he minimums to be hired. In the case of lateral moves it's not a problem, but banking on lateral movement isn't a sure thing. There's probably enough people to fill most of the vacancies appearing next year, but unless we start using the "bottom of the barrel" hiring practices that some of the other carriers are accused of, it's going to be tough to fill them all.

This, of course, doesn't assume that AAG is planning on continuing to shrink Envoy and give away the aircraft that were temporarily pulled from the desert or withheld from transfer to other carriers. Or potential mergers.

There's a lot at play here. It's not as simple as 800 hires at AA = 400 flows = 400 upgrades = 400 new hires.

and a BS'er too. In another thread, someone asked the recruiting office the 800 hiring RUMOR at AA next year and well, they haven't heard either. I have asked my sources and sure thing the company hasn't mentioned it.


But wait, its friday! Maybe the announcement will be made today..


Good Luck!

They may be doing 68% but its still less than 20/mo. The average for the YEAR is only 14/mo.

Thinking they will ever go over 30/mo is crazy. Won't happen.

Actually seems to me like the "nobody can staff it argument" is playing out exactly as forecast.

Let's see.

PSA can't staff our CRJs

Someone can't staff out ERJs

Republic can't staff the 175s, to what extent hasn't even been made public yet.

This whole pilot shortage thing doesn't actually get better anytime soon, it gets exponentially worse, so your only seeing just the tip.

The entire landscape will change dramatically in the next 5 years. And planes will go unstaffed, American thinks they have it figured out with the whole pipeline thing, meanwhile united and delta have been hiring 100 a month and will continue to, which outpaces growth and retirements (they're front loading talent). Which American can't even do to the same extent because of training center limitations and flow through commitments.

Things are going to change, and they don't have it figured out yet.

Hehehehe :D

Well they have to do a min of 50%. They can withhold any month to 30 or 50% (whichever is less), but end of year has to be 50%.

So if AA hires 800 next year. The min avg per month from envoy is 33.3pilots/month

Corporate sell out? Naa. Just using the company kitchen with the help of mid level managers to manufacture a witches brew of Kool Aid. Said Kool Aid dispensed eagerly and often to the masses via electronic medium.

The travesty? ALPA is buying the Kool Aid on the side by the tractor trailer load and is dispensing. Just in a different format.

By the way, for those out there searching for the Fountain of Youth, the tide is turning.

Read it again. They don't have to ever go over 30. It says "best efforts" to get 50% over time. We all know that means they absolutely will not do it. 30 will be the max. If that even happens.. Unlikely.

If it causes disruption to the operation, you know well damn sure they will send the minimum. Just like they are doing now and the foreseeable future...



Good Luck!

PSA isn't having an issue staffing yet. But I think we will in 2016 if something doesn't change to attract new hires beyond a "quick upgrade" which will slow and fade soon.